As FG admits revenue challenges
We got N10trn out of N40trn projected in 2025 — Edun
Says only non-revenue target met in August
MTEF/FSP to await probe into revenue performances in 2024, 2025
The Federal Government has admitted facing revenue challenges in implementing the country’s budgets across 2024 and 2025, a scenario creating further uncertainty over the 2026 budget.
The development forced senators to ask more questions on Monday over the several loan approvals in recent months they expected should have been utilised in tackling the revenue setbacks.
For instance, while the government targeted a revenue haul of N40trn for the 2025 budget, it was able to raise just N10trn from programmed sources.
Amid the constant reference to the recent declaration by President Bola Tinubu that Nigeria met all of its revenue targets for 2025 in August, a clarification came on Monday that the President actually meant non-oil revenue targets.
The disclosures were made at the National Assembly in Abuja when the Senate Committee on Finance held an interactive session with the economic management team of the government and heads of major revenue agencies on the projections for the 2026–2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP).
Leading the team was the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun.
Other key officials in attendance were the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu; Minister of Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri; Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr Jumoke Oluwole; and the Accountant-General of the Federation, Dr Shamseldeen Ogunjimi.
The Chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, led several revenue-generating agencies to the session, including the Nigerian Port Authority, the Nigerian Customs Service and the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency.
Speaking, Edun told the committee that though funding was available for the 2024 budget for full implementation of recurrent spending, the capital component was still ongoing till December 31, 2025.
He said while the oil revenue projection in 2024 was about N26trn, the actual came to between N8.2trn and N8.3trn.
For the 2025 budget, the minister disclosed that only N10trn revenue was realised so far from the projected N40trn, leaving the government with the capacity to raise funding for only 30 per cent of the budget.
As a result, Edun said about 70 per cent of the budget would have to be rolled over into 2026 to be implemented along with the entirely new 2026 budget.
He spoke extensively, saying:
“Let me now provide context on two important areas, starting with revenue. The reality is that revenue performance has consistently fallen short of budget estimates.
“In 2024, total revenue was estimated at about N25.9trn, while actual federal government revenue stood at approximately N8.27trn. As a result, treasury management and financial engineering measures were employed to bridge the gap, leading to adjustments in budget implementation.
“For 2025, revenue was estimated at about N40trn. However, actual federal government cash revenue is projected to be roughly N10trn. Once again, significant effort has been required to source funding from various means, including borrowing.
“This historical trend clearly shows the need for a far more robust and realistic revenue effort going into 2026.”
Edun seized the opportunity to clarify that what Tinubu meant when he talked about meeting the 2025 revenue target was non-oil revenue, adding that the President was not referring to oil returns.
Available statistics indicate that within the first 10 months of 2025, the government borrowed about N17.36trn from domestic and external sources.
Around N15.8trn out of the borrowing came from domestic instruments, while external borrowings in the first half of 2025 were about N1.56trn.
Senators, while interrogating the country’s situation, mainly sought to know how the borrowings were expended, leaving Nigeria with overlapping budgets.
Former governor of Gombe State, Senator Danjuma Goje, expressing surprise, described it as “an ugly situation that Nigeria must find ways to normalise.”
He added, “Are projects in the 2024 budget paid for? The 2025 has not been operated at all. How do we return to normal budgeting instead of having three budgets?”
Senators Aminu Iya Abass, Ireti Kingibe and Victor Umeh all asked similar questions, raising concerns particularly about how the government had utilised its borrowings.
On his part, Senator Adams Oshiomhole said though he did not envy Edun’s position, as lawmakers, they should still be able to explain to voters why capital projects were not being executed.
He noted, “I don’t envy you at all. You are saddled with the duty of coordinating. So, na only you waka come!
“How do we create jobs when capital projects are not implemented? The system fails to generate jobs once the capital budget doesn’t perform.”
However, FIRS boss, Adedeji, like Edun, put up a strong defence for the government’s financial decisions of late, arguing that the funds captured in every budget remained projections until the funds were actually realised for spending.
According to him, the revenue components for the budgets included loans being sought to fund embedded deficits, explaining further that adding up the loans does not automatically mean that the revenue gap has been adequately addressed.
In 2023, late President Muhammadu Buhari signed a budget of N21.83trn for the country, followed by the initial N28.7trn Renewed Hope budget of President Bola Tinubu for 2024, which eventually rose to about N35trn.
In 2025, the country budgeted N54.99trn, the implementation of which Edun said on Monday that funding was available for 30 per cent.
For the 2026 budget, according to the 2026–2028 MTEF/FSP now before the National Assembly, the government is proposing another N54.5trn.
The document tallies Nigeria’s total revenue for next year at about N34.33trn.
This implies that the government will have to shop for another N20trn to take care of the deficit, and a debt-servicing implication of around N15.9trn.
Crude oil production, the main revenue source, is put at 1.84 million barrels per day and a benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, figures confirmed by Edun, Bagudu and Lokpobiri on Monday.
The MTEF projects the 2026 recurrent, non-debt expenditure at N15.27trn.
Other projections include a dollar/naira exchange rate of US$1 to N1,512 and Gross Domestic Product growth of 4.68 per cent.
The 2026–2028 MTEF arrived at the National Assembly late, as Section 11(1)(b) of the Fiscal Responsibility Act 2007 provides that the document should reach the legislature not later than four months before the commencement of the next financial year.
It states: “The Federal Government, after consultation with the states, shall: (a) not later than six months from the commencement of this Act, cause to be prepared and laid before the National Assembly for their consideration a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework for the next three financial years; and (b) thereafter, not later than four months before the commencement of the next financial year, cause to be prepared a Medium-Term Expenditure Framework for the next three financial years.”
Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Senator Sani Musa, before adjourning the session, ruled that the committee would first conduct a comprehensive public hearing on revenue collection and performances of the 2024 and 2025 budgets before considering the MTEF/FSP to help guide the projections for 2026.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
