The Political Landscape and Jonathan’s Potential Return
Few hours after the African Democratic Congress (ADC) held its first national caucus meeting in Abuja, former president Goodluck Jonathan visited the national chairman of the party, Senator David Mark. This visit has sparked significant interest and speculation within the political arena.
The timing of this meeting is particularly noteworthy, as every step in politics matters, especially during an election year. Sources within the ADC suggest that although the meeting was a private one between Jonathan and Mark, there are indications that Jonathan is trying to rally opposition parties before deciding whether to contest the presidency or not.
A top member of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) stated that members of the PDP have been calling on the former president to show interest and come and contest. However, Jonathan has not explicitly stated his intention to run, nor has he ruled it out. This ambiguity leaves room for interpretation, with many seeing it as a sign of interest.
Jonathan, as a former president and an international citizen, may be considering a unified opposition if he decides to contest against the ruling party. He cannot join the PDP in its current state, given that many party leaders have left for the ADC, along with several governors who have moved to the APC.
When contacted, the ADC clarified that the meeting between Jonathan and Mark was a private one. The National Publicity Secretary of the party, Mallam Bolaji Abdullahi, explained that the ADC caucus meeting where party leaders met in Abuja was a separate event from the meeting between the two leaders. He emphasized that some were present but not part of the meeting, which was a closed-door affair between the two leaders.
Despite the explanation, some believe the meeting cannot be ignored due to its timing and optics. A reliable source in the ADC noted that Jonathan, as a politician and former president, is aware of the interpretations the gesture would receive but chose not to be discreet about it. The action of Jonathan cannot be waved aside, especially at a time when speculation about his potential return to the presidency is rife.
It is also curious that Jonathan met with the national chairman of the ADC immediately after the party announced its consideration of opening its presidential ticket for 2027. The national caucus of the ADC urged hopefuls to support whoever emerges as the party’s flag bearer in the 2027 election. Attendees included Mark, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, National Secretary Rauf Aregbesola, former Kaduna State governor Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, former Sokoto State governor Aminu Tambuwal, and former Rivers State governor Chibuike Amaechi. Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate in the 2023 presidential election, sent his apologies.
Jonathan lost the 2015 presidential election to late former president Muhammadu Buhari of the APC but has since taken a back seat politically, though he has been linked to the presidential contest since 2023. In the build-up to the 2023 elections, a group reportedly paid N100 million to obtain a form for him to participate in the APC presidential primary.
Analysts suggest that the former president is being mentioned in the build-up to the contest due to the peculiar advantages he is said to have over others eyeing the seat. While other aspirants like Atiku Abubakar face zoning issues, Jonathan has no such inhibitions as he comes from the southern part of the country. Additionally, he is statutorily constrained to one term since having served previously as president, making him a viable option for those opposed to the APC.
However, the biggest snag for Jonathan appears to be the legal issue over whether he qualifies to run after having taken the oath of office twice. A former House of Representatives member from Rivers State, Bernard Mikko, told Weekend Trust that a Federal High Court judgment cleared the way for Jonathan to contest another election, stating he has the right to do so in 2027.
Mikko added that the decision to contest the 2027 presidential election is Jonathan’s, not anyone else’s. He emphasized that others can evaluate the economy and social wellbeing of Nigerians under the Jonathan administration and when he left. The law, he said, is very creative and dynamic, with legal luminaries agreeing that the Constitutional Amendment signed by President Buhari in 2018 cannot take a retrospective effect from 2015.
Our correspondents report that there are moves by other parties, mainly the PDP, to convince Jonathan to join the presidential race and contest against President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027. However, due to the problem the party is having with the FCT minister Nyesom Wike, who is a strong ally of President Tinubu, many are said to have advised Jonathan not to take that option.
The ADC, pundits say, appears a better platform since it is made up of his former allies like Mark, Amaechi, and others. The development has put many politicians who had already given their support to other aspirants in a dilemma as they are no longer sure about Jonathan’s next step.
A former minister who is a strong supporter of a former VP who has indicated interest to run for the presidency in 2027 and had defected to the ADC is in that situation as she is considering retracing her steps. Our correspondent learned that the former minister, who is also close to Jonathan, has been worried about the step to take after getting the hint that the former president may run.
Our correspondents also learned that the much-promoted independence stage play, The Patriot, in Abuja, which posters display the image of Jonathan, aims to celebrate leadership, sacrifice, and patriotism. Pundits are saying the event is being put together to reawaken the consciousness of Nigerians to a plural democracy and good governance.
Jonathan is currently a member of the PDP and has stayed in the fold of the party even after losing the presidential election. Analysts say unlike 2023 when Jonathan remained mute on the prospect of running, his body language this time has shown that he is not totally against the idea as he has been meeting with key players that will shape the 2027 race.
