Early ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ reactions are euphoric: What does that mean for its awards odds?

The social media embargo on reactions to James Cameron‘s third Avatar movie, subtitled Fire and Ash, lifted last night after the first big batch of screenings, and the tweets were as breathless as a sky person trying to appreciate Pandora’s fresh air.

You should seek out the reactions for yourself from the writers of your choosing, but the gist falls along familiar lines for the first wave of social media responses to a franchise movie – a Cameron-directed one in particular. A visual feast! He’s done it again! Never bet against Jimmy Boy! Payakan is in it!

Take a slightly closer look at the reactions, and you may notice some recurring minor notes in the fanfare. Too long! Too similar to The Way of Water! Spider is in it!

But those are just the initial knee-jerk reactions when readers are hungriest for a hot take and critics can get their first crack at the joke everybody will be making on their Letterboxd two weeks from now. What are they saying with their Oscar predictions?

With fewer than 24 hours having passed since the embargo lifted, Avatar: Fire and Ash is down in its Best Picture nomination odds on Gold Derby. It’s lost 1 percent in combined predictions, but – somewhat unexpectedly – it’s up 5 percent with experts on the site. In both cases, the film is currently predicted to occupy the No. 9 slot in the 10-film Best Picture field.

Combined Predictions

Expert Predictions

Over on the Golden Globes predictions, the Best Drama Film odds are faring a little worse in combined odds (down 2 percent), while the expert percentage did the inverse (up 2 percent). The combined predictions have Fire and Ash just outside the six-film field, while the experts have the threequel hanging on in the No. 6 slot.

Combined Predictions

Expert Predictions

Now, one of those metrics may be more telling about the quality of the movie itself, since it’s much more likely that experts are reacting to actually having seen the movie, while users are left to interpreting the online consensus. Both can be informative when it comes to award prognosticating, but if you’re interested in assessing the film, one is probably more substantial than the other.

If this is all a little opaque, there’s some good news. The full review embargo lifts the morning of Dec. 12, and – even better! – the movie itself opens on Dec. 19, when you’ll be able to judge its Best Picture odds for yourself and make the same joke on Letterboxd that critics made two weeks before.