Nigeria’s Economic Ambitions and the Industrial Policy 2025
Nigeria has set an ambitious target of reaching a $1 trillion economy, but achieving this goal requires more than just high aspirations. The Tinubu Administration inherited an economy with structural imbalances, including fuel subsidies and multiple foreign exchange rates. However, Doris Uzoka-Anite, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, remains optimistic about the possibility of attaining this economic milestone.
She highlighted that while Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is currently at $375 billion, reaching $1 trillion would require sustained GDP growth of between 10 and 12 percent annually over the next decade. This optimism was further reinforced by a positive outlook from Standard & Poor’s Global Rating in January 2026, which affirmed Nigeria’s B-/B rating and cited measurable improvements in fiscal and monetary policies.
President Bola Tinubu outlined his vision for Nigeria’s industrial transformation through the Nigeria Industrial Policy 2025. In a speech delivered by Vice President Kashim Shettima, the President described the policy as a roadmap for re-engineering Nigeria’s industrial base, focusing on production, competitiveness, and job creation. He acknowledged longstanding challenges such as fragmented value chains, high production costs, infrastructure gaps, and policy inconsistencies.
The success of the policy will be measured by tangible outcomes, including the number of factories opening, jobs created, and exports leaving Nigerian ports. The document emphasizes the importance of diversifying the economy and creating inclusive prosperity, aiming to position Nigeria as a leading industrial hub in Africa and globally.
The policy document acknowledges that the industrial sector is a key driver of the Nigerian economy, despite the dominance of oil and gas, which contributed 88.3 percent of foreign earnings in 2024. It also highlights the potential of the manufacturing sector to drive growth, noting its contribution of 8.9 percent to GDP in 2024, projected to increase to 10 percent in 2025.
However, the document faces criticism for being overly generic, with some suggesting it may have been drafted by a consultant using a template. The lack of depth in addressing foundational issues, such as the need for functional refineries, railway lines, and agricultural security, raises concerns about its effectiveness.
The policy outlines several key areas, including diversification and value chain development, infrastructure strengthening, technology and skills development, the Nigeria First Policy, industrial financing, green and inclusive industrialization, and trade-driven development. These goals aim to accelerate industrial transformation, promote sustainable manufacturing, and generate employment through innovation and infrastructure.
To achieve these objectives, the government plans to implement macroeconomic policies, fiscal strategies, and monetary measures, such as export trade prioritization, VAT exemptions, import duty waivers, improved loan access, and inflation control. The focus includes expanding production in sectors like food processing, textiles, agriculture, and pharmaceuticals.
Despite these efforts, the policy has faced scrutiny for not adequately addressing critical issues. Aliko Dangote, a major Nigerian industrialist, argues that the policy does not protect local industries, especially with the upcoming zero-tariff regime from China and the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement.
Critics also point out that the document lacks specific details on research and development, housing strategies, and the automobile industry—sectors that could significantly contribute to employment and economic growth. There is also concern about the lack of input from the Central Bank of Nigeria and the absence of administrative policies to strengthen the naira.
For the policy to succeed, it must be reviewed by industrial economists and professionals with practical experience. Additionally, the President must ensure that the rule of law and institutional integrity are upheld to support long-term economic stability.
