Nigeria’s Crude Oil Imports from the United States Surge
Nigeria’s imports of crude oil from the United States have seen a dramatic increase in the first eight months of 2025, with a rise of over 100 per cent compared to the same period in 2024. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the country imported 31.69 million barrels between February and August 2025, up from 15.79 million barrels in the same timeframe in 2024. This significant jump of 15.9 million barrels reflects a major shift in sourcing strategies, driven by supply pressures and the need to stabilize domestic fuel output.
The data does not show any imports in January for either year, but there are clear month-on-month increases across most of the period reviewed. In February, imports stood at 3.11 million barrels, which was slightly below the 3.61 million barrels recorded in 2024, representing a 13.8 per cent decline. However, March saw a sharp rise to 5.25 million barrels, an increase of 1.83 million barrels or 53.5 per cent compared to the previous year.
April saw another increase, with imports reaching 2.04 million barrels, up from 1.54 million barrels in April 2024, marking a 32.3 per cent rise. May recorded 3.79 million barrels, compared to 2.08 million barrels in the same month in 2024, reflecting a growth of 1.71 million barrels or 82.4 per cent.
The most notable surge occurred in June, when imports climbed to 9.16 million barrels, far above the 1.04 million barrels recorded in June 2024. The increase of 8.12 million barrels represented a 782.3 per cent surge, the highest jump in the period. July saw a slight increase to 4.17 million barrels, compared to 4.10 million barrels in 2024, reflecting a 1.8 per cent increase. August’s figures lacked a direct comparison due to the absence of data for August 2024.
Structural Shift in Nigeria’s Import Profile
The rising inflow of US crude highlights Nigeria’s continued reliance on foreign barrels amid inconsistent domestic crude supply and the ongoing transition in local refining. With crude production still below target levels and refinery operations picking up, US light sweet grades have remained a key option for meeting supply needs.
The volatility and eventual surge indicate that the Dangote Refinery’s crude intake is entering a steady ramp-up, with US light sweet crude favored for its compatibility with complex refining processes. However, the rising reliance on imported US barrels highlights a longstanding paradox for Nigeria.
Despite being Africa’s biggest oil producer and an OPEC member, it has historically exported crude while importing refined products because its state refineries are moribund. The Dangote refinery was expected to address this by using domestic crude oil to reduce reliance on imports. However, the latest data shows it is still relying on foreign supply to optimize operations.
The year-on-year surge of over 100 per cent, alongside the rapid month-on-month escalation in 2025, signals a structural shift in Nigeria’s crude import profile. The Federal Government disclosed that a total of 67,657,559 barrels of crude oil were supplied to local refiners for processing between January and August 2025. This figure, confirmed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, highlights the ongoing challenges in bridging the crude allocation gap faced by indigenous refineries, despite Nigeria’s rising production levels.
Challenges in Domestic Supply
The commission noted that crude allocation was made in line with the Petroleum Industry Act 2021 and the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation policy. According to the commission, through its Head of Media and Strategic Communications, Eniola Akinkuotu, the barrels were delivered to both modular and state-owned refining facilities, including Waltersmith, Aradel Energy, and refineries under the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited.
“A total of 67,657,559 barrels were delivered to local refiners between January and August this year. All refiners got that amount within the eight-month period,” Akinkuotu noted in a statement. However, the volume supplied fell short of refiners’ demand by a wide margin. Local processors had requested 123,480,500 barrels for the first half of 2025, meaning they received 55,822,941 barrels—or about 45 per cent—less than required to meet their refining targets.
Earlier this year, the NUPRC projected that refineries such as Port Harcourt, Warri, Dangote, and others would require 770,500 barrels per day, translating to 23.8 million barrels per month, or 123.4 million barrels for the first half of 2025. Yet, actual deliveries have not matched these forecasts. Instead, Nigeria’s crude and condensate production climbed to 1.63 million barrels per day in August, with much of it still destined for export.
For months, refinery owners have complained about difficulties in accessing crude oil locally. They allege that producers prefer selling to international buyers who pay in dollars, leaving domestic refiners struggling under the pressure of exchange rates.
Dangote Refinery’s Reliance on US Imports
It was earlier reported that the $20bn Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos relies heavily on US imports to feed its processing units. The refinery imported an average of 10 million barrels in July, stating that it was increasingly relying on the US for its feedstock, despite the naira-for-crude deal with the Federal Government.
Data from commodities analytics firm Kpler showed that in July, US barrels accounted for approximately 60 per cent of Dangote’s 590,000 barrels per day of crude intake, with Nigerian grades making up the remaining 40 per cent. In July, the Dangote refinery’s crude imports surged to a record 590 kbd—driven largely by US barrels overtaking Nigerian supply for the first time—amid ongoing domestic sourcing challenges, Kpler reports.
As crude imports into the Dangote refinery surged to 590,000 bpd in July, the highest monthly volume on record, Kpler noted that US crude made up a substantial 370,000bpd (60 per cent) of the total, while Nigerian grades accounted for just 220,000 bpd (40 per cent), primarily comprising Amenam, Bonny Light, and Escravos.
“While WTI has held a significant share in Dangote’s import slate since March, this is the first time US crude has overtaken Nigerian supply—a shift driven by several factors,” Kpler reported.
