The Political Landscape in Oyo State
In the ever-changing political environment of Oyo State, where the spirit of leadership is tested by both intellectual depth and grassroots engagement, a recent development has sparked significant discussion. A gubernatorial aspirant from Ibadan Southeast has become the center of attention, prompting critical analysis and debate. While a former Minister of Power, Chief Bayo Adelabu, has raised doubts about the viability of Senator Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli as a gubernatorial candidate, the ground realities suggest otherwise.
Adelabu’s critique appears to be more of a warning than a genuine concern, reflecting a pattern of defeat rather than a valid argument. In sociology, the Primary Group Theory, developed by Charles Cooley, highlights that an individual’s most meaningful social connections are within their immediate family and local community. For politicians, the Polling Unit serves as the ultimate “primary group,” acting as a litmus test for character and connection to the grassroots.
As the late legal expert and sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo once noted, leadership without a foundation at home is like building on sand. The data from the 2023 gubernatorial elections reveals a troubling trend for Adelabu. At his own Polling Unit 10, Ward 9, Oke Oluokun, he received only 38 votes, compared to Governor Seyi Makinde’s 60 votes. Even in 2019, while the APC held power, he lost his local government to the opposition.
Dr Adeola Bakare, a political sociologist, emphasizes that a leader who cannot command the loyalty of their kinsmen lacks the necessary “Social Capital” to govern a complex state. When the data shows consistent rejection at one’s ancestral home, it indicates a deep-seated disconnect in human relations. No amount of rhetoric or criticism can alter these facts.
Psychologically, Adelabu’s recent outburst can be understood through the lens of Cognitive Dissonance. Having been denied the APC ticket in 2019 and failing to deliver, he later left the party for Accord in 2023, only to face another defeat. This pattern of failure naturally leads to devaluing those who have succeeded where he has stumbled, resulting in his misguided actions last weekend in Ibadan.
The Political Profile of Senator Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli
Senator Sharafadeen Abiodun Alli, PhD, stands out as a model of political resilience, grassroots penetration, and mobilization. While Adelabu struggles at his grandfather’s doorstep, Alli won the chairmanship election for Ibadan North Local Government at the young age of 28. His political career reflects a “Consensus Builder” who has consistently demonstrated electoral success.
Alli’s 2023 senatorial victory, securing a 19,000-vote differential with the runner-up, showcases what political scientists refer to as “Electoral Magnetism.” These records are verifiable and highlight his strong political base.
From a structural perspective, the APC relies on Party Supremacy. It is well-known that Senator Alli enjoys the confidence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who recognizes the need for a candidate with a “winning DNA.” Professor Richard Joseph, a notable political scientist, argues that sustainable democracy requires leaders with proven administrative and electoral values. Alli’s history of defeating the political machine of Alhaji Lamidi Adedibu twice (in 1991 and 1996) establishes him as a veteran of the trenches.
The Importance of Consensus and Strategy
Alli has been endorsed by APC stakeholders, and all attempts to promote a purported popularity and billions of naira have failed. Right-thinking individuals wishing Oyo APC well should rally around the consensus candidate, deploy resources, and support the candidate that the Party Elders, Stakeholders, and members across all the 33 Local Governments have endorsed in the interest of the Party. Any other narrative denigrating the party and its structure is a display of “entitlement mindset.”
When you have not shown or demonstrated capacity, no community value, consistently losing at home and at his grandfather’s house, and never winning any election in both 2019 under APC and 2023 under Accord, you must reassess your strategies. Over the years, Alli has won many elections: first, he won a personal election in the most populous Ibadan North local government in the State at age 28 in 1991, and has consistently won twice in the Oyo South Senatorial District. He also contributed greatly to Senator Ajimobi’s electoral success in 2011 as a campaign deputy director general.
If young Sharafadeen could crush Adedibu’s political machine twice before, his political antecedents are beyond doubt.
Strategic Infiltration and the Role of Social Media
Why is the “noise” against Alli so loud on social media? The answer lies in Strategic Infiltration. Agents of the current PDP administration know that Adelabu is a predictable opponent, a candidate they have defeated before and can defeat again. By fueling Adelabu’s ego, the opposition hopes to distract the APC from fielding a “battle-hardened” General like Sharafadeen Alli.
In conclusion, a word to the wise. As the 2027 horizon draws closer, the APC leadership and members must distinguish between grandstanding and governance. Leadership is not about inherited names or ministerial appointments; it is about the ability to mobilise the masses from the ward level to the state capital.
If, as the saying goes, “you cannot drive safely, it is better to stop and not get hurt,” then Chief Adelabu must show deep introspection and not damage whatever is left of his reputation.
The “Renewed Hope” agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu requires builders from the ground up and not spoilers. Senator Sharafadeen Alli has proven he can win the difficult battles. For the APC to reclaim Oyo State, it must follow the data, respect the “Home Base” factor, and align with the proven winner.
The people of Oyo State are no longer buying the “mirage” of elitist grandstanding. They want a Senator and a future Governor, who is at home with them at Oke Oluokun, just as he is at home with the other wonderful and great people of the entire Ibadanland, Ibarapa, Oke Ogun, Oyo and Ogbomoso geopolitical zones of our dear State.
The current alignment of the Presidency with APC Oyo State and Senator Alli represents a positive and significant shift toward rewarding grassroots loyalty and mass mobilisation over technocratic appointments in the upcoming 2027 electoral cycle.
