Sri Lanka, Dec. 8 — Russian President Vladimir Putin visited India on December 4-5 to attend the 23rd India-Russia Summit. Judging by the media coverage of this visit, one might conclude that India and Russia had forged a grand alliance capable of reshaping the global order and dealing a devastating blow to the United States and the West. In the eyes of the Indian media, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, by inviting Putin to India, had performed yet another masterstroke – one that had undoubtedly overturned Western dominance in global geopolitics.
Watching the frenzy on Indian television and across the mainstream press, it would seem that every move the prime minister makes is a stroke of genius, inspired by the timeless wisdom of the ancient Indian strategist Chanakya, often described as India’s counterpart to Machiavelli.
From Masterstroke to Modest Gains
In reality, however, the outcomes of the summit were far more modest. Much was expected from the meeting, particularly in terms of strengthening the economic relationship between the two countries. Although bilateral trade has reached a record high of about $69 billion, the structure of this trade remains heavily skewed. India exports only around $5 billion worth of goods to Russia, while importing over $64 billion – primarily crude oil – resulting in a trade deficit exceeding $60 billion.
Observers had anticipated that the summit would produce a roadmap for rebalancing this trade, enabling India to expand its exports while ensuring a steady flow of Russian energy despite Western sanctions on Russian oil. This was especially significant in light of the punitive 25 percent additional tariffs introduced under former U.S. President Donald Trump on India’s purchase of Russian oil.
Except for President Putin’s promise to ensure the uninterrupted supply of fuel to India – whether oil, gas, or coal – there were no major announcements from the summit. In fact, Putin’s assurance could also be interpreted as a plea to India not to be swayed by American sanctions on Russia or by U.S. pressure to reduce its energy imports from Moscow.
There was also much talk about increasing bilateral trade to $100 billion, but this appeared more rhetorical than realistic – particularly given that Prime Minister Modi had made a similar pronouncement only a few months earlier to boost Indo-U.S. trade to $500 billion. And we know how well that is going.
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There were also great expectations on the defense partnership front. It is well known that India’s defense systems are heavily dependent on Russian and Soviet-era technology. The most prominent weapons in India’s arsenal today – such as the BrahMos cruise missile – are products of Indo-Russian collaboration. India’s best-performing weapon in its recent military encounter with Pakistan, the S-400 air defense system, is also of Russian origin. Nearly the entire Indian Air Force, apart from the Rafale aircraft acquired from France, is based on Soviet and Russian-made MiGs and Sukhois.
India’s dependence on Russian defense technology and support is therefore undeniable. Expectations from this meeting were that the two long-standing partners would move beyond the traditional buyer-seller dynamic. Not only was further technology transfer anticipated, but also the possibility that India would gain access to Russia’s most advanced weaponry: the S-500 and the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter.
Although no announcements were made regarding these systems, there was a clear expectation that the defense partnership would now advance to a higher level – one focused on joint manufacturing and co-development rather than simple procurement. Much, therefore, was expected on the defense front.
It is highly probable that both Modi and Putin, while seeking to project strength and strategic autonomy for Donald Trump’s benefit, were also wary of overplaying their hand for fear of an immediate backlash from Washington. Trump, if triggered, could respond by raising tariffs on India, imposing new sanctions on Russia, or even invoking CAATSA – the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act – if India announced any major purchase of Russian weapons such as the S-500 or Su-57.
Thus, while both leaders sought to signal that their countries were free to pursue their national interests independent of Washington’s preferences, they were equally careful not to push that assertion too far.
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But for those willing to look beyond the grand narratives and lofty rhetoric, the gap between rhetoric and reality was not hard to miss – a gap best captured by a popular Hindi phrase: naam bade, darshan chote, or in English, “flattered to deceive.” The spectacle was grand, the optics impressive, but the substance of the summit fell far short of the hype.
Why India’s Russia Bet Faces Diminishing Returns
It’s not that there were no gains from the Putin-Modi summit. There were, of course, some tangible outcomes. Efforts are now underway to send Indian labor and skilled workers to Russia, which is currently facing an acute shortage of manpower. In that sense, the deep unemployment crisis in India may be assuaged to some extent. India, in effect, is becoming an exporter of human capital.
There are also initiatives to expand manufacturing cooperation in Russia, along with several smaller agreements aimed at boosting non-defense and non-energy trade between the two countries. Notably, the two sides agreed to work toward the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a Russia-led economic bloc that includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, in addition to Russia. The EAEU discussion underscores Moscow’s intent to integrate India more closely into its regional economic architecture.
So yes, some benefits will undoubtedly accrue. But there is also a risk: the West may begin to see India as a less reliable and less trustworthy partner in the emerging world order. From that perspective, this visit, while not altering the global balance of power in any meaningful way, might actually diminish India’s significance in the eyes of the West.
Europe’s Unease and India’s Balancing Act
The op-ed written by the ambassadors of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom in The Times of India on the eve of Putin’s visit, criticizing him and Russia’s war in Ukraine – and the subsequent rebuttal by the Russian ambassador in the same newspaper – has effectively turned the Indian media space into another battleground in the war of narratives between Russia and Europe. This development does not bode well for India. The irritation expressed by India’s Ministry of External Affairs, which described the European envoys’ joint article as “unusual and undiplomatic,” made that clear.
It was, in essence, a pointed signal from the leading powers of Europe that they were deeply unhappy with Putin’s visit to India.
To put it bluntly, the numbers tell their own story. The West, comprising a $20 trillion European economy and a $30 trillion U.S. economy, accounts for nearly 45 percent of global GDP, while Russia, with an economy of just $2 trillion, represents barely 2 percent of it.
Conclusion
In the end, the Putin-Modi summit reaffirmed the depth of India’s historic ties with Russia but also exposed the limits of what that relationship can now deliver. While both sides gained in optics and symbolism, the substance remained thin. If this visit was designed to impress Donald Trump or even Xi Jinping, it is far from clear whether it succeeded. One can only hope it does not end up irritating both – because any backlash from Washington or Beijing could ultimately do more harm than the modest good that came out of this meeting.
