Key Local Government Areas to Watch in the Osun Governorship Race
The upcoming Osun governorship election is shaping up to be a closely contested battle between incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party and APC candidate Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji. With the race expected to be decided by small shifts in voter support, several local government areas (LGAs) are drawing significant attention due to their electoral weight, political leanings, and historical significance.
Here are ten LGAs that could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election:
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Osogbo: The biggest prize
Osogbo, with 167,704 registered voters, has the largest electorate of any LGA in Osun, accounting for 7.17 per cent of the state’s register. As the state capital, it holds considerable political visibility and has historically been a major electoral battleground. In 2022, Adeleke won the LGA with 30,401 votes, defeating the then-APC candidate, Gboyega Oyetola, who scored 22,952. For Oyebamiji, reversing this result could provide a substantial boost, while Adeleke needs to retain the advantage to compensate for losses elsewhere. Osogbo is likely to be one of the clearest indicators of which way the election is moving. -
Olorunda: Another heavyweight in the capital
Olorunda has 123,063 registered voters, giving the two LGAs in the state capital a combined electorate of 290,767, or 12.4 per cent of Osun’s entire register. In 2022, Adeleke won the LGA with 21,350 votes against Oyetola’s 18,709. That was a margin of 2,641 votes, which proved significant in an election that Adeleke eventually won statewide by just 28,344 votes. Olorunda offers Oyebamiji another opportunity to make inroads into an area where the APC will be seeking to rebuild its previous strength. -
Ife East: A major electoral reservoir
Ife East has 128,515 registered voters, making it the second-largest LGA in the state by electorate. Its importance is amplified by the wider Ife axis, which includes Ife East, Ife Central, and Ife South, together having 317,224 registered voters, representing about 13.6 per cent of Osun’s entire register. In 2022, the APC won Ife East with a narrow margin of 1,282 votes. This makes it crucial for the current election, as a significant swing in either direction could produce thousands of additional votes. -
Ife Central: APC territory that Adeleke must challenge
Ife Central has 122,454 registered voters, making it the fourth-largest LGA by electorate. It was another APC victory in 2022, with Oyetola securing 17,880 votes against Adeleke’s 13,532. For Oyebamiji, holding or expanding that advantage would provide valuable votes in one of Osun’s largest LGAs. For Adeleke, improving his performance here could be just as important as defending his traditional strongholds. -
Iwo: A traditional battleground
Iwo has 106,814 registered voters, making it the fifth-largest electorate in Osun. Its 2022 result was extremely tight, with Oyetola winning by just 507 votes. That makes Iwo one of the clearest swing LGAs in the race. A modest change in turnout, candidate preference, or mobilization could overturn the margin, making it a key area to watch. -
Ede North: Adeleke’s fortress under pressure
Ede North is not among the very largest LGAs by electorate, but its political importance far exceeds its raw numbers. It was central to Adeleke’s 2022 victory, where he secured a commanding 14,328-vote advantage. The question in 2026 is whether Adeleke can reproduce that level of dominance. Oyebamiji will be looking to reduce the deficit, while Adeleke will want to preserve what remains one of his most valuable sources of votes. -
Ede South: Adeleke’s biggest home advantage
With 67,729 registered voters, Ede South is smaller than many of the other LGAs on this list. But its political significance is enormous. In 2022, Adeleke scored a staggering 13,734-vote margin. Together, Ede North and Ede South account for 164,373 registered voters, about seven per cent of the state’s electorate. Oyebamiji does not necessarily need to win Ede South, but substantially reducing Adeleke’s margin could have an important effect on the statewide arithmetic. -
Irewole: Oyebamiji’s home turf
Irewole has 96,528 registered voters and is particularly important because Oyebamiji hails from Ikire in the LGA. The APC also won Irewole in 2022. A decisive APC victory could help compensate for losses in other parts of Osun West. However, if Adeleke narrows the gap significantly or if Salaam takes a meaningful share of the vote, the political significance of Irewole could become even greater. -
Ifelodun: The swing that could matter
Ifelodun has 94,870 registered voters, putting it among Osun’s larger electorates. Its 2022 result went to Adeleke, but only narrowly: he polled 17,107 votes against Oyetola’s 16,068, a difference of just 1,039 votes. That makes Ifelodun a classic marginal LGA. A shift of a few thousand votes could change the statewide calculation, especially if the final contest is decided by a narrow margin. -
Ilesa East: Another major APC test
Ilesa East has 89,491 registered voters, making it one of the state’s larger voting blocs. The LGA favoured the APC in 2022, when Oyetola polled 13,452 votes against Adeleke’s 10,969. Its importance is reinforced by the broader Ijesa axis, which includes Ilesa East, Ilesa West, Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, and Obokun, together having more than 332,000 registered voters. A strong APC showing across the axis could provide Oyebamiji with a substantial base, while Adeleke will be seeking to prevent the region from becoming a large source of opposition votes.
The 10 LGAs above collectively illustrate the complexity of Saturday’s contest. Each plays a unique role in the broader electoral landscape, and their outcomes could determine the winner of the Osun governorship race.
