The Struggle for Progress in Nigeria’s Electricity Sector
Nigeria’s electricity sector has faced significant challenges over the past two decades, despite reforms aimed at liberalising the market and boosting generation capacity. According to Tasiu Gidari-Wudil, a former president of the Nigerian Society of Engineers (NSE), these efforts have not delivered the expected results.
At the 29th edition of the NSE October Lecture Series held in Abuja, Gidari-Wudil highlighted that the reforms, which were meant to unlock private investment, improve generation, and expand access to electricity, have failed to meet their targets. He pointed out that the installed capacity remains around 13,000 megawatts, with average generation still below 50% of that figure.
Gidari-Wudil noted that the ambitious reforms starting with the Electric Power Sector Reform Act of 2005 have yet to translate into meaningful improvements for Nigerians. “The sector has failed to deliver the promised transformation nearly two decades after liberalisation,” he stated, emphasizing that by now, the country should have exceeded 30,000 megawatts. However, due to political interference, regulatory lapses, and weak implementation, progress has been far below expectations.
He stressed that the sector has been plagued by chronic outages, infrastructural decay, and economic sabotage, which remain major barriers to national development. Persistent gas supply constraints, transmission bottlenecks, and commercial inefficiencies have rendered the reforms ineffective, creating problems across the entire electricity value chain.
Challenges Across the Value Chain
According to Gidari-Wudil, the major problems are evident throughout the electricity value chain, from generation to distribution. He specifically called on distribution companies to address rampant commercial and collection losses, which continue to hinder electricity supply in Nigeria.
While private sector participation has introduced some accountability, mismanagement and consumer indiscipline continue to undermine progress. “Mismanagement thrives when utilities are under government, but even private operators have failed to instil accountability. Consumers also play a part. Everyone wants free electricity, but no one dares to drive away from a petrol station without paying. Until we confront this culture, reforms will not work,” he said.
The lecture, themed “Evaluating Nigeria’s Power Sector Reforms: 2005–2023: A Quantitative Analysis of Technical Performance and Regulatory Impact,” provided a critical review of the reforms that broke the National Electric Power Authority into successor companies, created the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, and paved the way for private ownership of generation and distribution firms.
Despite investments of more than $10bn since privatisation, Nigerians continue to face daily blackouts, frequent grid collapses, and unreliable service. Transmission losses average between 8 and 12 per cent, while distribution efficiency varies significantly across the 11 electricity distribution companies, with collection rates sometimes as low as 30 per cent.
Policy Inconsistencies and Political Interference
Gidari-Wudil pointed to policy inconsistencies and political interference as key obstacles. Yet, he offered glimmers of hope, praising the 2023 Electricity Act for enabling state regulators in 11 states and paving the way for an independent system operator armed with IoT technology to monitor units in real-time.
“We are moving towards a US-style model where every state has its public utilities commission, and even villages can form cooperatives for self-generation,” he said, drawing from his US regulatory training. He advocated for cost-reflective tariffs, transparent subsidies, and robust stakeholder engagement, warning that the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission must improve service monitoring beyond feeder levels to individual customers via smart meters.
He stressed that regulators must be allowed to operate independently if the sector is to recover. “The reforms were ambitious and well-designed, but poor execution and lack of political will have slowed them down. The Electricity Act of 2023 provides opportunities, but it must be implemented faithfully.”
State-Level Regulators and Future Prospects
Gidari-Wudil also highlighted the growing trend of state-level electricity regulators, with 11 states having already set up agencies. “This is a step in the right direction, but these state commissions must learn from the federal regulator’s 20 years of experience to avoid repeating past mistakes.”
He concluded that the solution is near, and Nigeria has the technical know-how to address its power challenges. “Unfortunately, we don’t have the ears of government. Until the political leadership begins to take technical advice seriously, the power sector will continue to struggle.”
In her opening address, the NSE President Margaret Aina Oguntala emphasized the importance of the lecture as a platform for the NSE to articulate its stance on national issues. She echoed the call for action, stating that the institution would escalate recommendations from the lecture to the government and continue engaging with policymakers to ensure proper implementation of reforms.
On his part, the special guest of honour and Managing Director of Sahara Group Kola Adeshina called for more responsibility from all stakeholders. The MD, represented by the Head of Generation, Godwin Emanuel, urged for collective reflection. “The solution is right here,” he said, stressing engineers’ role in power generation, transmission, and distribution reforms. “We must ask ourselves what contributions we have made to address the power challenges. The solution is not far away; it lies in our collective commitment.”
The NSE’s October Lecture, instituted to showcase past presidents’ insight on critical economic issues, underscored that reforms demand long-term commitment beyond political cycles.
