The Escalating Conflict in the Middle East and Its Impact on Kenya
The ongoing war in the Middle East has created a significant crisis for Kenya, with over half a million Kenyans currently stranded in the region. This situation, combined with rising fuel prices, is threatening remittances and the overall cost of living in the country.
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has resulted in nearly 800 casualties, including the death of Iran’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khomeini. While President William Ruto expressed support for Kenya’s strategic allies, the Foreign Ministry clarified that his comments were focused on opposing the spread of the war rather than taking sides in the conflict.
Ruto condemned Iranian strikes on several Gulf states, including the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. However, he did not address the initial joint attack on Tehran, highlighting the complexity of the situation.
Stranded Kenyans Face Challenges
Kenyan citizens who are currently in the Middle East are experiencing the direct impact of the conflict. According to Roseline Njogu, the Diaspora Affairs Permanent Secretary, approximately 500,000 Kenyans are in the region, with about 100 in Iran and 1,000 in Israel.
Fuel prices have surged by 13%, rising from $72.87 (Sh9,400) per barrel before the war began to $82 (Sh10,590) per barrel. This increase mirrors the price spike seen during the Russia-Ukraine war, which contributed to a cost-of-living crisis in Kenya in 2022.
Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi assured Kenyans that the country is well-prepared to meet its energy needs. He stated that scheduled imports will cover the market up to April 2026, ensuring a stable supply. However, the ministry remains vigilant, engaging with suppliers for contingency planning.
Economic Vulnerability
As world leaders call for de-escalation, both sides of the conflict appear entrenched. US President Donald Trump suggested the conflict could last longer than initially expected, while Iran’s Supreme National Security Council head, Ali Larijani, refused to negotiate with the US.
The US State Department has issued “depart now” alerts for multiple Middle Eastern countries, prompting governments to evacuate their citizens. The African Union Commission chairman, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, warned that further escalation could worsen global instability, particularly affecting Africa’s energy markets, food security, and economic resilience.
Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil, and targeted vessels passing through. At least five tankers have been damaged, two personnel killed, and 3,200 ships stranded in the Gulf.
Economic Risks for Kenya
Treasury Cabinet Secretary John Mbadi warned that the conflict could heavily impact Kenya’s already struggling economy. He emphasized the need for proactive measures, similar to those taken during the pandemic, to mitigate potential damage.
Martin Kimani, Kenya’s former UN representative, highlighted the risks of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to surges in grain, fertilizer, and fuel costs across Africa. He urged swift action to activate the continent’s collective response mechanisms.
Trade officials have also raised concerns about the effects on Kenya’s trade and labor ties with Middle Eastern states. Lee Kinyanjui, the Trade Cabinet Secretary, noted that disruptions in aviation and waterways would directly affect fresh produce and horticulture exports.
Trade and Export Concerns
The conflict is also expected to derail talks on resuming tea exports to Iran following a trade scandal involving Kenyan and Iranian firms. A joint committee was formed in August 2025 to address these issues, but no resolution was reached before the conflict escalated.
Kenya’s meat exports to the Middle East, valued at $11.3 million (Sh1.4 billion) in 2024, are also at risk. This includes significant exports to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Kuwait.
Foreign policy expert Peter Kagwanja noted that the conflict will heavily impact Kenya Airways, which has suspended flights to the Gulf due to airspace closures.
Safety of Kenyans in the Region
Beyond economic concerns, the safety of Kenyans working and living in the Middle East has become a major issue. Thousands of Kenyans are employed in countries such as the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.
Remittances from Kenyans in the Middle East support many families across Kenya. Roseline Njogu revealed that about 500,000 Kenyans are in the region, with significant numbers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
The Central Bank of Kenya reported a 25% drop in remittances from Saudi Arabia, from $403.12 million (Sh52 billion) in 2024 to $302.1 million (Sh39 billion) in 2025.
Government Response and Evacuation Efforts
The Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs has issued advisories urging Kenyans in the region to exercise caution and follow local security guidelines. Officials are monitoring the situation and maintaining contact with diplomatic missions.
A Kenyan worker at DP World in Dubai described how operations at Jebel Ali Port were halted after being hit by missile debris. The port, which serves as a key US Navy facility, has become a focal point of the conflict.
Prof Kagwanja emphasized the need for the government to prioritize the safety of Kenyans caught in the conflict. He called for clear updates and emergency measures to protect over 416,000 Kenyans working in Gulf countries.
Domestic political leaders have also responded, urging the government to act swiftly to reassure families and prepare evacuation plans if necessary.
