Texas Senate Race Heads to Runoff with Uncertain Outlook
Texas Republican Senator John Cornyn is heading into a runoff election against Lone Star State Attorney General Ken Paxton, raising concerns among Republicans that the extended and contentious primary could make the Senate seat vulnerable for Democrats this fall.
Cornyn was leading Paxton in the Republican primary for the U.S. Senate with nearly 75 percent of the vote counted, according to the Associated Press. Congressman Wesley Hunt, who faced criticism for missing several Capitol Hill votes, was eliminated from contention with a third-place finish. However, neither of the top two candidates managed to surpass the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a 12-week runoff, which is expected to be a bitter and draining battle for the Republican Party.
Speaking to a crowd of supporters on Tuesday night, Cornyn stated, “Ken Paxton as the nominee would be a dead weight.” He added, “Judgement day is coming for Ken Paxton.”
The outcome was a surprise for Cornyn, whose campaign had predicted he would finish second to Paxton in the first round of voting. A Cornyn operative even texted ahead of polls closing that “Paxton ahead of us within [margin of error] is most likely result.”
Now the question is whether Paxton or Cornyn can convince President Donald Trump to support their campaigns, as Trump has remained notably neutral so far.
Also unresolved is which Democrat will advance to the general election, with James Talarico currently leading Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, though no official race call has been made yet.
In his speech to supporters, Paxton referenced his previous state-wide victories, emphasizing that he has bested previous runoff contenders. He also invoked Texas Senator Ted Cruz multiple times, urging Texans to “send a second conservative Senator” to Washington, DC. Paxton noted that Cruz’s 2012 campaign was the last time a Texas Senate race went to a runoff.
“Texas is not for sale,” Paxton said, referencing Cornyn’s financial advantage.
Cornyn’s campaign spent $69 million—far more than Paxton’s $5 million—but this did not translate into a decisive victory. Cornyn also benefited from significant outside super PAC spending.
Paxton qualified for the runoff despite being indicted, impeached, and facing serious charges of infidelity. The Daily Mail revealed that Paxton was secretly seeing a married Christian influencer, Tracy Duhon, a mother of seven. When asked about the allegations, Paxton did not address them directly but attacked the media and vowed to take on the “deranged radical Left” with Trump.
Cornyn released a commercial accusing Paxton of cheating on his wife and “wrecking another home.” However, Cornyn’s own history of defying Trump appeared to weigh more heavily on voters’ minds.
In January 2021, Cornyn did not object to certifying Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election, citing “unproven allegations.” In 2023, he suggested Trump could not win a 2024 general election, stating that Trump’s time had “passed him by.” Trump has not forgotten these remarks and has remained on the sidelines, allowing Paxton an opening.
A pro-Cornyn PAC was accused last summer of manipulating audio from a 2019 Trump rally to make it seem like the president endorsed the senator. The altered footage clipped the ‘s’ from “Senators” and removed any mention of Ted Cruz.
Paxton has the backing of Turning Point USA’s political arm, whose endorsement sparked controversy. TP Action’s support for Paxton was seen as a direct challenge to TPUSA founder Charlie Kirk’s values, which emphasized Judeo-Christian principles and encouraged young conservatives to marry and have children.
Outside of personal controversies, Paxton has faced accusations of corruption. He was impeached over claims of bribery, abuse of office, and corruption but was later acquitted. He has never been convicted of a crime.
Since 2019, Cornyn has voted against the majority of his GOP colleagues, fueling accusations that he is an RINO (Republican in Name Only). Despite claiming a 99% voting record aligned with Trump, Cornyn has few allies in Washington’s conservative establishment.
Heritage Action rates Cornyn’s current session votes at just 35%, down from a lifetime score of 64%. The American Conservative Union reports a similar trend: a lifetime score of 87, versus a current ranking of 77.
In 2022, Cornyn was one of 15 Republican senators who crossed the aisle to support President Biden’s Bipartisan Safer Communities Act following the Uvalde school shooting in his home state.
These records will now be scrutinized until late May, leaving the Republican Party deeply divided. Many GOP operatives fear that a Paxton victory in May could make the seat vulnerable to Democrats in November.
It would also mean significant GOP financial investment to retain a seat in a traditionally Republican state.
“If we have to spend money in Texas, then we’re diverting,” said former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy on NBC News, lamenting the prolonged primary campaign.
The Texas runoff is scheduled for March 26.
