Rise of Terrorism in West Africa and the Sahel
The Foundation for Peace Professionals has issued a stark warning that over 80% of global operations associated with the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are now concentrated in West Africa and the Sahel. This alarming trend has positioned the region as the new epicenter of global terrorism, raising urgent concerns among security experts and policymakers.
This warning comes at a time when renewed security threats have emerged in parts of Kwara State, particularly following recent attacks on communities, including the latest incident in Yashikira, Baruten Local Government Area. These events highlight the growing instability in the region and the need for immediate action to address the escalating threat.
In a statement released on Tuesday, Abdulrazaq Hamzat, Executive Director of PeacePro, explained that the organization’s assessment was based on a comprehensive analysis of global incident data obtained from open-source intelligence, regional security reports, and trend assessments of ISIS-linked activities across different conflict zones. He emphasized that the findings were derived from a detailed evaluation of operations in the Middle East, Central Africa, and the Sahel region, revealing a significant shift in the geographical concentration of extremist activities.
Hamzat noted that the 80% estimate was calculated by monitoring the frequency, scale, and attribution of attacks linked to ISIS and its affiliates over recent months. The methodology involved aggregating reported incidents, comparing regional distributions, and evaluating operational intensity, including attacks that may have gone underreported.
PeacePro highlighted a marked decline in extremist operational activities in traditional ISIS strongholds such as Iraq and Syria, while attacks in West Africa, particularly within the Lake Chad Basin and the wider Sahel corridor, have continued to rise. The organization pointed out that ISIS-affiliated groups operating through regional franchises in West Africa now account for the majority of attacks, fatalities, territorial incursions, and coordinated operations associated with the global terrorist network.
This shift has also contributed to the increasing prominence of some Nigerian fighters within ISIS-linked command structures. The statement noted that the scale, coordination, and persistence of attacks across Nigeria and neighboring countries signal a dangerous expansion of extremist networks, supported by adaptive strategies, local recruitment, and potential external support systems.
The organization warned that the concentration of such a large proportion of ISIS-linked operations in West Africa reflects a major shift in global terrorism dynamics, requiring urgent attention from both regional governments and the international community. PeacePro called on the federal government to lead efforts aimed at mobilizing a coordinated international response to the growing threat.
They urged Nigeria to strengthen intelligence-sharing frameworks, deepen cooperation with international partners, and take the lead in a unified offensive against extremist groups operating across the region. The group emphasized that Nigeria’s position as a frontline state in the fight against terrorism places it in a strategic position to galvanize broader regional and global action.
PeacePro recommended enhanced multilateral security cooperation, deployment of advanced counterterrorism technologies, and more aggressive efforts to disrupt transnational financing and logistics networks that sustain extremist activities. They stressed that these measures are urgently needed to combat the rising threat effectively.
The organization further warned that failure to respond decisively could allow terrorist groups to deepen their foothold in vulnerable communities, expand their territorial influence, and export instability beyond West Africa. While advocating stronger security measures, PeacePro emphasized that counterterrorism operations must remain intelligence-driven, evidence-based, and consistent with international human rights obligations.
According to the report, Nigeria and several countries across the Sahel have witnessed an increase in attacks by extremist groups over the past decade, particularly factions linked to the Islamic State and other insurgent networks. In Nigeria, terrorist activities have largely been concentrated in the North-East, where the Islamic State West Africa province and other insurgent groups continue to target civilians, military formations, and critical infrastructure.
Recent attacks in communities around Baruten Local Government Area of Kwara State have renewed calls for a stronger security presence and improved intelligence gathering along Nigeria’s porous borders with neighboring countries.
