The Uncertain Preparations for Xi Jinping’s State Visit to the United States
As Chinese President Xi Jinping prepares for his first state visit to the United States since 2015, the atmosphere surrounding the trip is marked by uncertainty and concern. With less than six weeks until the scheduled visit, Beijing is increasingly anxious about the disorganization within the Trump administration. Sources have indicated that little progress has been made on defining the key deliverables of the leaders’ summit, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the planning process.
This situation echoes the challenges faced during former US President Donald Trump’s landmark visit to China in 2017, where a lack of coordination and clear leadership from Washington frustrated Chinese officials. Now, as the roles are reversed, Beijing finds itself in a similar position, watching the same story unfold on foreign soil.
According to insiders, no single US official or agency has taken responsibility for organizing the visit, leading to a lack of clarity and direction in the preparations. This absence of leadership contrasts sharply with the approach taken during Trump’s trip to Beijing, where the Treasury Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative played central roles. In this case, the State Department has remained largely uninvolved, further complicating the logistics.
The recent visit by China’s foreign vice-minister Ma Zhaoxu to Washington brought a brief improvement in the atmosphere, but the momentum did not last. The official Chinese read-out of the visit mentioned only that Ma held in-depth exchanges with senior US officials. For Chinese officials, the issues at hand appear to be operational, logistical, and related to public perception, with neither side expecting significant outcomes from the September summit.
The only concrete item currently under discussion is a potential $30 billion tariff reduction for Chinese goods, which could serve as a targeted concession. However, Chinese officials are particularly sensitive to the dynamics of the visit because protocol, venue, and public messaging will be largely controlled by the White House. This leaves Beijing with limited ability to manage the optics or prevent surprises.
Internal deliberations within Trump’s inner circle have contributed to the slow practical planning. Disagreements persist over the tone and framing of the visit, with some White House advisers pushing for a more assertive stance, while others expect Trump to adopt a more conciliatory approach.
Despite these challenges, Trump has floated September 24 as the date for Xi’s White House visit, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently indicated that the visit remains on track. The Chinese leader’s trip comes at a time when the world’s two largest economies are trying to stabilize their relationship following the May summit in Beijing, where Xi and Trump agreed to build what they called a constructive relationship of strategic stability.
However, this stabilization has been tested recently as the two countries engage in a series of tit-for-tat measures. Last month, Washington added dozens of Chinese companies to its Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act entity list and banned the import and sale of new foreign-made robotic devices and power inverters—sectors in which China is a global leader. In response, Beijing sanctioned seven US entities and tightened export controls on drones and related technology.
US officials have framed the September summit as one of up to four possible meetings between the two leaders this year, highlighting it as an opportunity to stabilize relations and advance cooperation. However, the May summit, which was similarly promoted, produced few concrete results. According to sources, the lack of progress has irritated Chinese officials, with one stating, “There’s not much happening in terms of planning on deliverables.”
Early signs suggest the summit may be thin on concrete results. The US-China Board of Investment, a key outcome of the May talks, is unlikely to be among the deliverables, as neither side has initiated the consultation process.
Ali Wyne, a senior research and advocacy adviser on US-China relations at the International Crisis Group, noted that Chinese officials might be anxious about the apparent lack of planning on the American side because Xi is meeting Trump at a “sensitive juncture” in the president’s term. Wyne pointed out that the United States is bogged down in a war with Iran that is increasingly unpopular with Trump’s base, and the Republican Party is bracing for a painful midterm election cycle in just under three months.
Trump, who bristles at the perception that he is losing control of events at home and abroad, may consider making a surprise policy announcement that catches Xi off guard on Trump’s home turf. This possibility adds to the concerns of Xi’s advisers.
