Hormuz and Red Sea clashes escalate

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Military clashes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, and between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned armed group Houthis in the Red Sea, are intensifying simultaneously. With Israel resuming airstrikes on Lebanon, a stronghold of the Iran-aligned armed group Hezbollah, frontlines are expanding in two critical maritime chokepoints in the Middle East, where the U.S.-Saudi-Israel bloc faces off against Iran, the Houthis, and Hezbollah.

The U.S. Central Command, which oversees the Middle East, stated that it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for attacks by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on U.S. naval vessels. Four tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, and one near Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export hub in the Persian Gulf. Iran also retaliated extensively against U.S. military bases, naval vessels, and commercial ships. Iran claimed to have struck two U.S. Aegis destroyers and over ten commercial ships, including oil tankers, near Kuwait and Bahrain. Ballistic missiles were reportedly fired at U.S. bases in Jordan and Qatar.

In the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a Red Sea chokepoint bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, clashes between Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s government forces, and the Houthis—Iran’s proxy in Yemen—have escalated to near-all-out war. Over 500 people have died in the past week, and more than 18,500 refugees have fled in the last three days, according to foreign media.

The Houthis struck four southern Saudi cities with drones and missiles, targeting air force bases and critical facilities of state oil giant Aramco, including refineries and power infrastructure. Saudi Arabia retaliated with airstrikes on Houthi-held areas, including the Yemeni capital Sanaa, Marib, Al-Jawf, Saada, and Taiz provinces. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated, “Iran’s hand is clearly behind the escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.”

◇ Houthis join Iran proxy war in Red Sea… Crisis of simultaneous blockade at two ‘oil transport chokepoints’

The New York Times (NYT) noted, “The war has reached a critical juncture,” as the U.S. and Iran push each other’s redlines. The U.S., enforcing an “economic isolation campaign” against Iran, seeks to solidify its blockade with military force, while Iran, facing worsening economic hardships, aims to destabilize the situation through military escalation. The NYT added, “Iran, capable of precision strikes on U.S. bases, seeks to regain momentum by heightening military tensions.”

Rising oil prices and public discontent are significant political burdens for the Trump administration ahead of November midterm elections. Iranian hardliners claim, “President Trump will restart the war regardless of midterm outcomes,” suggesting a strategic intent to maximize pressure on the U.S. to gain leverage in negotiations. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned, “We will deliver faster and more painful retaliatory strikes against the U.S.,” and Iran declared on the 9th that it would control the Oman Sea and Arabian Sea beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

◇ Iran retaliates against U.S. bases after attacks on tankers

The U.S. military stated on the 8th that it sank five Iranian oil tankers in response to IRGC attacks on U.S. vessels, calling it retaliation for ballistic missile strikes over the past two days. The U.S. views these tankers as part of a shadow network worth billions of dollars, funding the IRGC and regional proxies. On the 5th, the Central Command also disabled three tankers—two near Kharg Island and one in the Gulf of Oman—rendering them inoperable.

In response, Iran attacked a U.S. base in Jordan’s Al-Azraq with ballistic missiles and retaliated against U.S. facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and commercial ships. Iran had also attacked U.S. naval vessels on the 7th.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing multiple officials, reported growing concerns that Iran might be receiving assistance from Russia and China in tracking U.S. ship locations. Despite U.S. claims of neutralizing Iran’s radar capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s surveillance and strike capabilities remain intact, suggesting possible support from Moscow and Beijing.

Iran previously claimed to have captured a U.S. underwater drone in the Strait of Hormuz. Central Command spokesperson Colonel Tim Hawkins refuted this, stating, “The drone was an obsolete model with no sensitive data or classified equipment.” Iran also asserted it struck U.S. Aegis-equipped destroyers DDG-119 and DDG-53 with missiles.

◇ Saudi Arabia and Houthis engage in near-all-out war in the Red Sea

Clashes between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have escalated to a de facto full-scale war in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a lifeline for Saudi oil exports amid the Hormuz blockade. The Houthis attacked four southern Saudi cities—Mushayt, Abha, Najran, and Jizan—on the 8th, targeting air force bases and critical Aramco facilities. This was the largest attack on Saudi territory since the Iran war began in February, injuring at least 73 people, including women and children.

Saudi Arabia conducted widespread retaliatory airstrikes on Houthi-held Yemeni territories. To bypass Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is transporting crude oil from eastern fields via pipelines to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast for export. The Houthis’ control of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait threatens Saudi Arabia’s survival, prompting its refusal to relinquish control. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan stated, “We will not hesitate to take measures to defend our nation, protect our interests, and secure the security and stability of our brother nation, Yemen.”

The Houthis aim to seize the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, isolate government forces, and gain the upper hand, while Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government fight for survival as supply and oil routes face complete blockage.

In Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah are locked in a standoff, Israeli airstrikes resumed, killing nearly 20 people, including children and medical personnel. Analysts suggest Iran, grappling with severe economic hardships and internal discontent, has mobilized its proxy forces to resist the spillover effects of the U.S.-Iran war across the Middle East.

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