Japan’s protest over Russian soldier statue aggravates ‘summer of tension’

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is under pressure from conservatives to take firm action, including helping Ukraine in its war against Russia

Russia has rebuffed a strongly worded complaint from Japan over a statue in the city of Khabarovsk depicting a Soviet soldier smashing an imperial-era border marker bearing the Japanese emperor’s emblem, with analysts predicting bilateral relations will stay chilly.

The 15-metre granite monument, commemorating the Soviet Union’s victory over Japan in 1945, shows a soldier using the butt of his rifle to shatter the border post – a replica of the markers once installed along the 50th parallel on Sakhalin Island, which divided Japanese-controlled southern Sakhalin from the Russian-held north.

The Soviet Union seized control of southern Sakhalin near the end of World War II, and Japan renounced its claims to the territory in 1951.

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A 16-petalled chrysanthemum motif, the imperial symbol, is depicted on the statue. Its unveiling last week went ahead despite Tokyo’s requests through diplomatic channels for changes, prompting Japan’s foreign ministry to call it “extremely regrettable”.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said she had also requested the statue’s removal, adding in a statement on Saturday: “The Chrysanthemum Crest is widely recognised as a symbol of Japan, and it is completely unacceptable to erect a monument depicting its destruction.”

Speaking in Moscow on Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made clear that Tokyo’s protests would be ignored.

“It is difficult to say what they have forgotten and what they remember in Tokyo, but at least we have not forgotten,” Tass news agency quoted him telling a press conference. “We have not forgotten Japanese militarism and the victory we achieved over it.”

James Brown, an international-relations professor specialising in Russian affairs at the Temple University’s Tokyo campus, described “a summer of real tension between Japan and Russia”.

Ties took a nosedive after Tokyo imposed sanctions on Russia in 2022 over its invasion of Ukraine, with relations deteriorating further this year after Japan accused a former Russian trade delegation official of espionage. This was followed by Russian warships and aircraft operating near Japan, including joint exercises with Chinese units.

Russian President Vladimir Putin also visited Iturup, north of Hokkaido, in August – a trip Japan’s foreign ministry and Takaichi both criticised. Iturup is one of the four southern Kuril Islands that Tokyo calls its Northern Territories, seized by Soviet forces after Japan’s 1945 surrender. The territorial dispute has prevented a peace treaty ending the countries’ wartime hostilities.

“This is especially awkward for Takaichi,” Brown said. “She is supposed to be a nationalist, a hawk, but Putin has visited what she sees as sovereign Japanese territory. Now a statue has been unveiled showing the smashing of the imperial chrysanthemum, and she is not able to respond in a meaningful way.”

Takaichi’s room for manoeuvre is partly constrained by energy concerns, according to Brown. With conflict in the Middle East pushing up oil prices, Japan wants to preserve access to energy supplies from Sakhalin, despite its diversification efforts.

“There have been complaints through diplomatic channels, but nothing further,” Brown said. “It’s just empty rhetoric.”

Conservatives were infuriated by Putin’s island visit. Kiyofumi Iwata, former military chief of staff, denounced it in an opinion article published by the right-wing Japan Institute for National Fundamentals as “an outrageous action designed to justify the former Soviet Union’s entry into the war against Japan … and its illegal occupation of the Japanese territories after the war”.

Iwata was equally scathing about Takaichi’s response, which he said had been “limited to verbal protests” despite Russian “openly trampl[ing] on Japan’s sovereignty and public sentiment”.

He called for “deterrence through action”, urging Japan to “make Russia feel pain” – including by supplying Ukraine with air defence weapons and jointly developing drone technology.

Ben Ascione, an assistant professor of politics and international relations at Waseda University in Tokyo, said mounting criticism from allies, the opposition, the media and the public could push Takaichi towards a tougher stance.

“The statue showing the imperial chrysanthemum being smashed is extremely provocative,” Ascione said.

“The emperor and the imperial family are held in very high regard here. Conservatives expect her to be tough on territorial issues and protect the dignity of the imperial family, and we have had two hot-button issues in a short space of time.”

Failing to take a firmer line could push supporters towards the more hardline Sanseito party, denting her standing and electoral prospects, he added.

Andrei Lankov, a Russian-born professor of history and international relations at Kookmin University in Seoul, said both leaders were being driven by domestic political concerns, with Putin facing a legislative election later this month.

“Both leaders need to please a domestic audience. Pushing a line that a leader is tough is always popular, especially when it does not cost the taxpayer anything,” Lankov said.

“I do not think there is any amount of protest that Japan can make that will change how Russia represents World War II. That is especially the case now as Russia emphasises victory over Japan at the same time as it is improving relations with North Korea and China.”

Brown added that hopes of joint development of the southern Kuril Islands – as appeared possible when former prime minister Shinzo Abe met Putin repeatedly a decade ago – had vanished.

“This must be a major disappointment to Russia because even this year it had hoped that it would be able to make progress on this issue with Takaichi, in part because she was Abe’s protege,” he said.

“But as is so often the way with Russia, they pushed harder when they detected softness and that very quickly killed off any engagement on the issue.”

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This article originally appeared on the South China Morning Post (www.scmp.com), the leading news media reporting on China and Asia.

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