Economic Milestones and Claims by President Bola Tinubu
In a national address, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu reflected on the progress made in the country. He highlighted 12 remarkable economic milestones achieved over the last two years of his administration, attributing them to sound fiscal and monetary policies. However, not all of his claims could be independently verified.
GDP Growth and Inflation Rates
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is a key indicator of a country’s economic health. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.23% in the second quarter of 2025, marking the fastest growth rate in four years. This figure aligns with Tinubu’s claim that it was the highest since 2021. However, comparing quarterly GDP growth rates with annual projections can be misleading, as they measure different time frames.
Inflation, measured using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reached 20.12% in August 2025, the lowest in over three years. The last time inflation was below 20% was in July 2022, before rising sharply to 34.8% in December 2024. The decline in inflation was attributed to the NBS rebasing the CPI, which updated its methodology.
Revenue-to-Debt Service Ratio
Tinubu claimed that his administration reduced Nigeria’s revenue-to-debt service ratio from 97% to below 50%. However, data from the Budget Office of the Federation shows that the ratio was already lower when he took office. For example, in the second quarter of 2023, the ratio stood at 64.4%, and for the first half of 2023, it was 86.9%. These figures suggest that the ratio was not as high as 97% at the start of his term.
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Foreign exchange reserves play a crucial role in maintaining a country’s currency value and economic stability. Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) shows that Nigeria’s gross external reserves stood at $42.3 billion on 29 September 2025, the highest since September 2019. While higher figures have been reported in the past, such as $64.85 billion in 2008, the current level supports Tinubu’s claim.
Trade Surpluses and Exports
Nigeria recorded consistent trade surpluses from the first quarter of 2024 to the second quarter of 2025. Crude oil exports dominated the trade balance, making up a significant portion of total exports. In the second quarter of 2025, crude oil exports were valued at N11.96 trillion, or 52.6% of total exports. Non-crude exports totaled N10.78 trillion (47.4%). However, Tinubu’s reference to “non-oil exports” as 48% was misleading, as this figure actually represents non-crude oil exports, which still include refined petroleum products.
Social Investment Programme
Tinubu claimed that N330 billion had been disbursed under the National Social Investment Programme (NSIP). Publicly available data confirms that at least N330 billion has been disbursed, reaching 8.1 million households. However, concerns remain about whether the funds truly reached those in need, highlighting the need for independent oversight.
Coal Mining and Transport Infrastructure
Tinubu stated that coal mining had rebounded strongly, ranking among Nigeria’s fastest-growing sectors. According to the NBS, the coal mining sector fell by 22.28% in the first quarter of 2025 but grew by 57.53% in the second quarter. Additionally, transport infrastructure, including rail and water transport, saw significant growth. Rail transport grew by 43.8% in the second quarter of 2025, while water transport grew by 27.9%.
Stock Market Performance
Tinubu claimed that Nigeria’s stock market was experiencing an unprecedented boom. While the all-share index reached over 142,000 points by 30 September 2025, the president’s reference to a 2003 figure was inaccurate. The index was above 55,000 points before Tinubu took office, which likely reflects his intended claim.
Credit Corporation and Loan Schemes
The Credit Corporation (Credicorp) disbursed loans to 111,000 Nigerians within six months of receiving its seed funding. However, there is no verifiable data confirming the N30 billion loan scheme or 153,000 beneficiaries cited by the president. Africa Check is awaiting a response from Credicorp for further clarification.
