Escalating Tensions Between Pakistan and Afghanistan
The recent escalation of tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan has raised concerns over the stability of the region. The conflict, primarily centered around cross-border terrorist attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) from sanctuaries near the Durand Line, has led to serious clashes. Pakistan conducted airstrikes on residential areas of Noor Wali Mahsud, a leader of the TTP, while Afghanistan retaliated with ground attacks in Balochistan and KPK, which were eventually repelled. Further airstrikes by Pakistan targeted known TTP sanctuaries and training camps, intensifying the situation.
The situation became even more complex when Afghan retaliatory actions coincided with the red carpet welcome given to Afghan Foreign Minister Mutaqi in New Delhi, where he expressed support for India’s stance on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. This development added another layer of complexity to the already strained relations between the two countries.
The Durand Line: A Border of Shared Heritage
The Durand Line, stretching 2,640 kilometers, serves as the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Both sides are inhabited by Pashtun tribes, who share deep familial, tribal, cultural, linguistic, and ideological ties. These connections have historically facilitated frequent interactions during social and cultural events, as well as for trade across the border. Traditionally, the border was porous, with simple cards issued by authorities allowing movement. However, official entry points such as Chaman and Torkham were designated for vehicular traffic and bilateral trade.
The relationship between the two nations was relatively smooth until the first Afghan war in 1979 and the second in 2001, which lasted over two decades. The Afghan people endured significant hardships during these conflicts. In August 2021, the Taliban regained control of Kabul, bringing renewed hope for peace and security. Pakistan was among the first to celebrate this development, with its spymaster visiting Kabul and Prime Minister Imran Khan welcoming the Taliban’s victory as “breaking the shackles of slavery.” His remarks, however, drew criticism from the US leadership and domestic opposition.
Pakistan’s Expectations from the Taliban
Pakistan had high hopes that the new Taliban regime would be friendly and would curb subversive activities from the Durand Line, dismantling the sanctuaries of known terrorist groups. The Doha Agreement had promised that the Taliban would not allow their territory to be used for terrorist activities against any country. Pakistan repeatedly raised these concerns with Kabul, with the Special Envoy and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar making several visits. Despite promises from Taliban leaders, they did not act against the TTP. Pakistan also suggested relocating the TTP deeper into Afghanistan to make it harder for militants to cross the border, but this too was ignored.
Reasons Behind the Taliban’s Inaction
The Taliban’s reluctance to act against the TTP stems from political and strategic considerations. The TTP had supported the Taliban during their conflict with NATO, fighting alongside their commanders. Both groups share a sense of camaraderie, clan affinity, and a shared vision of a grand Caliphate. Additionally, the Taliban face threats from groups like IS-Khurasan, which are backed by anti-Taliban forces. They do not want to provoke the TTP and instead aim to establish strategic depth in Pakistan’s tribal agencies. Some speculate that India may have advised the Taliban to keep the TTP issue alive to pressure Pakistan.
Rising Terrorist Activities in Pakistan
There has been a noticeable increase in terrorist attacks in Pakistan in 2024-25, carried out by the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA). The presence of IS-K in Pakistan has also been confirmed. On the eastern front, Pakistan’s traditional adversary is fueling war hysteria to gain political advantage in the Bihar by-elections. Any misunderstanding or provocation could lead to a full-scale military conflict between the two neighbors, with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Path Forward: Diplomacy Over Conflict
The Pakistani Army spokesperson recently stated that the status quo was no longer an option. Given the chaotic conditions in the Middle East, the growing aggression of Pakistan’s arch enemy, political instability in KPK, and rising insurgency in Balochistan, a war with Afghanistan is not a viable alternative. It would be unwise to escalate tensions further. Instead, Pakistan should resume dialogue with the Taliban, seeking support from influential countries like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar. Reinvigorating the Moscow format involving Russian leaders could help convey the gravity of the situation to Afghan leaders.
The Bagram Airfield Issue
The United States has expressed a strong desire to reoccupy Bagram airfield in Afghanistan. President Donald Trump had previously threatened the Afghan regime to return the base or face destruction. Pakistan’s current confrontation with Afghanistan at this juncture risks sending the wrong message that Pakistan is acting on behalf of the US to pressure the Taliban. This perception has pushed the Taliban to seek support from New Delhi. To counter this narrative, Pakistan should distance itself from the Bagram issue.
The author, a former member of Pakistan’s Foreign Service, has written two books on regional politics.
