Government Claims of Terrorism Reduction: A Closer Look
The Federal Government has recently announced a notable success in its fight against terrorism, claiming an 81 percent reduction in terror-related deaths since 2015. According to the Department of State Services, more than 13,000 terrorists have been neutralized in the past year, and over 124,000 fighters and their dependents have surrendered to authorities. Additionally, more than 2.1 million internally displaced people have been relocated from IDP camps, with reconstruction efforts ongoing. The government attributes this reduction to improved counter-insurgency operations and better collaboration between security agencies and local communities.
However, these claims come with a degree of skepticism. Nigeria is not a place where one can easily trust the word of state security agencies. During the tenure of former President Muhammadu Buhari, the government once claimed to have “technically defeated” Boko Haram. While the exact meaning of this statement remains unclear, it highlights the challenges of interpreting official narratives.
In April 2023, the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, asserted that terrorism-related deaths had dropped by 90 percent. His claim was based on the price of AK-47s on the black market, which had increased from N500,000 to N1 million in 2023 to about N5 million. Ribadu argued that this indicated a scarcity of weapons due to frequent government seizures. However, this reasoning overlooks the high inflation rates in Nigeria during the same period, which caused prices of goods and services, including food staples, to skyrocket. If rice could double or triple in price, why not a weapon?
Ribadu also cited a drop in monthly death tolls from an average of 2,600 to 200, along with the prosecution of nearly 2,000 terrorists. Yet, just 18 months later, the government now reports an 81 percent reduction in deaths and 124,000 fighters surrendering. Curiously, only 124 (a mere 0.1 percent) have been convicted in the past year. This discrepancy raises questions about progress and whether the figures truly reflect reality.
The Global Terrorism Index still ranks Nigeria as the sixth most affected country, alongside nations like Pakistan and Mali. This ranking suggests that despite years of fighting terrorism, the situation remains dire. What does it mean to “neutralize” 13,000 terrorists? Are they reintegrated into society, or do they return to their villages, only to potentially relapse into violence?
Rethinking the Definition of Progress
Progress should not be measured solely by the number of deaths or the price of weapons. Instead, it should focus on envisioning a terror-free Nigeria. What would life look like without terrorism, banditry, and the constant threat of violence? The goal must shift from merely stopping deaths to enhancing life. When efforts are fixated on counting dead bodies, it sets a low bar for victory and allows those in power to miscount deaths for political gain.
The real challenge lies in addressing the structural factors that contribute to insecurity. Nigeria is currently engaged in multiple conflicts simultaneously, with growing numbers of street urchins who lack education, skills, and a sense of purpose. These individuals may eventually turn against the country that failed them, perpetuating cycles of violence.
A Vision for a Post-Terror Nigeria
The fight against terrorism must aim for a future where Nigerians can live securely, with dignity and freedom. It is not enough to reduce deaths by spurious percentages; the focus must be on creating a life where people can flourish. Hope, faith, and the ability to exercise free will are essential components of this vision.
Nigerians must imagine themselves as free and dignified subjects, capable of living without fear. The ultimate goal is not just to eliminate terrorism but to build a society that values life, opportunity, and prosperity for all.
