Pakistan’s Growing Vulnerability to Climate Change
Pakistan is currently facing the severe consequences of climate change, with floods wreaking havoc across various regions, including KPK and GB, and now spreading to other parts of the country. The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts, and sea intrusion have made Pakistan one of the most vulnerable countries globally. Despite this, climate change remains a neglected topic in policy discussions. Policymakers often fail to fully comprehend the magnitude of climate threats, leading to reactive rather than proactive measures. For instance, the Pakistan Climate Change Authority was established to streamline policies and enhance monitoring, but it has not been fulfilling its mandate effectively, with some experts considering it redundant.
Ignoring climate change is not an option for Pakistan, as neglecting it could jeopardize development goals, disrupt social cohesion, and harm the environment. More critically, it could undermine national security, trigger internal conflicts, and lead to wars between states. This is not a hypothetical scenario; it is already happening in regions like Syria, Sudan, and Yemen, where climate change has contributed to the collapse of states.
Global Response to Climate Change and Security
Global institutions, including think tanks, research organizations, and NGOs, have been actively studying the implications of climate change on national and international security. Leading security agencies such as the Pentagon, CIA, MI-6, and European agencies have prioritized climate change as a critical area of focus. They are investing heavily in identifying potential impacts and developing strategies to protect national sovereignty and the well-being of citizens. These agencies have produced extensive documentation and are training their personnel to address these challenges more effectively.
However, the focus of military and security agencies tends to be on military infrastructure, preparedness, and operations, often overlooking the human and developmental aspects of security. For example, the Pentagon has conducted studies to map the vulnerability of its global infrastructure and has deployed officers to work with academia for a deeper understanding of climate issues. It also encourages its officers to pursue higher education in the field of climate change and its impact on security.
Neglect of Climate Security in Pakistan
In contrast, the security dimension of climate change is largely absent from the discourse in Pakistan, both in public and policy discussions. Most alarmingly, the military does not recognize the severity of the national security threat posed by climate change. While the Pentagon is working to relocate military infrastructure to mitigate risks, the government continues to permit the construction of housing societies and business centers in climate-sensitive areas of Islamabad.
Additionally, there is a lack of primary data-based research that helps understand the full scope of the problem. Most studies are theoretical or based on literature reviews. Recognizing the importance of the issue, the UNDP Pakistan commissioned a study in 2015 in collaboration with the National Defence University. The author of this article, Shakeel Ramay, led the study, which provided valuable insights into the knowledge of common citizens.
Public Perception and Awareness
The study began by assessing the knowledge of common citizens. Notably, 90% of respondents ranked Pakistan among the most vulnerable countries to climate change. They identified climate change as a major threat to livelihoods, food, and water availability. Focus group discussions revealed concerns about the potential for conflicts, riots, and violence due to resource scarcity. Participants also highlighted the lack of climate-smart water governance.
Respondents had a clear understanding of potential climate-related disasters. 64% believed floods would become a regular occurrence, while 23% anticipated increased droughts. They emphasized that the intensity of these disasters would have severe economic, social, and security implications. Those from Sindh and Balochistan were particularly concerned about droughts, recalling the devastating 1999-2003 drought that impacted millions of people and animals.
Climate Change and Conflict
When asked about the potential for conflict arising from climate change, 79% of respondents stated that it contributes to disputes over natural resources. They cited the 2010 flood and subsequent migration due to sea intrusion in Badin as examples. Migrants faced resistance from local communities and provincial governments, highlighting the social tensions exacerbated by climate change.
Lastly, when probed about the relationship between climate change and national security, 83% of respondents clearly stated that climate change will impact national security. Many expressed strong opinions during discussions, emphasizing the high, very high, or exceptionally high risk they perceive.
Recommendations for Action
Based on the study and existing literature, several recommendations have been developed, especially for the armed forces. First, the military must conduct vulnerability mapping of its infrastructure against climate-related impacts. Second, military agencies should integrate climate-related factors into defense planning and operations. Third, Pakistan should establish special departments within the military to address non-traditional security challenges such as disasters and climate-driven migration. Learning from China’s approach, which includes programs like MOOTW and HADR, can provide a useful framework.
Finally, the government should redefine policies regarding settlements in climate-sensitive areas, such as coastal regions, to mitigate future risks. Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive and proactive approach to ensure the resilience of Pakistan in the face of climate change.
