The Decline of the PDP’s Governorship Influence
The political landscape in Nigeria is undergoing a significant transformation as several governors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) consider switching allegiance to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This shift has led to a noticeable decline in the number of PDP governors, with some analysts predicting that only seven may remain. These include Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, Umaru Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa, Seyi Makinde of Oyo, Siminalayi Fubara of Rivers, Ademola Adeleke of Osun, Dauda Lawan of Zamfara, and Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau.
This change reflects a broader trend where the PDP has lost nearly half of its state executives since the 2023 general elections. While Edo was lost through an election, other states such as Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Enugu have seen their governors defect to the APC. Taraba is expected to follow suit soon, further eroding the PDP’s influence across the country.
Geopolitical Shifts and Internal Struggles
Geographically, the PDP now has no governor in the South East, which was once its stronghold. It currently controls one state in the South South, one in the North West, two in the South West, two in the North East, and one in the North Central. This distribution highlights the party’s shrinking power and the increasing dominance of the APC.
Analysts point out that the weakening of the PDP Governors’ Forum, once a significant force in national politics, has contributed to this decline. The forum, which previously served as a platform for collective decision-making, has become less influential due to internal disputes and a lack of unity among governors.
Pressure on First-Term Governors
First-term PDP governors are particularly vulnerable as they approach the 2027 general elections. Those serving their second and final terms, such as Bala Mohammed of Bauchi, Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa, and Seyi Makinde of Oyo, face fewer risks since they are not seeking re-election. However, first-term governors like those in Plateau, Osun, Zamfara, and Rivers must navigate a more challenging political environment.
Without the support of a ruling government at the center or the solidarity of fellow PDP governors, these leaders face daunting prospects. The usual cooperation where PDP governors rally around colleagues in off-cycle elections has diminished significantly.
Case Studies: Osun, Zamfara, and Rivers
Osun
Governor Ademola Adeleke faces a critical re-election battle in 2026. President Bola Tinubu has a deep personal interest in Osun, viewing it as a vital part of his political base. The APC’s loss of Osun in 2022 was seen as a symbolic weakening of Tinubu’s influence, and observers believe he may seek to correct this in 2026. Adeleke’s potential defection to the APC has been met with resistance from within the PDP, who see his entry as a threat to their ambitions.
Zamfara
Governor Dauda Lawal’s political standing remains relatively strong despite being the PDP’s lone governor in the North West. His isolation exposes him to significant pressure, and uncertainty persists over whether former APC governor Bello Matawalle may return to challenge him.
Rivers
Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s situation mirrors Adeleke’s but is complicated by the shadow of his predecessor and political rival, Nyesom Wike, now a minister in the APC-led federal government. Fubara’s reported concessions to restore peace after a political crisis highlight his challenges within the PDP.
Plateau’s Political Dynamics
Governor Caleb Mutfwang of Plateau also faces a complex political environment. Reports suggest he explored defection to the APC but was reportedly stopped by forces loyal to the APC national chairman. Recent statements from the APC in Plateau advising Mutfwang to remain in the PDP have not quelled concerns about his future. Critics argue that Mutfwang has failed to rebuild the party after a series of court verdicts that removed several PDP lawmakers and officials.
Despite these challenges, Mutfwang retains a crucial advantage: strong support from the northern senatorial zone, whose leaders are determined to maintain power until 2031. They believe that returning the governorship to the central zone in 2027 would prematurely end their rotation.
