An Igbo adage says that only a tree stands still when it is told it will be cut down. Indeed, the only sentient being that stays fixed on a particular course when it is informed that the road leads to danger is the one determined to self-destruct.
That climate warning that Nigeria can no longer afford to treat as an abstract scientific prediction, but as a real and present danger, is called ‘El Niño’.
For many Nigerians, the phrase may sound like something that belongs in a geography textbook, a cable television weather report or a conversation among climate scientists. But a new report from the Climate Impact Lab gives the phenomenon a much more frightening human face.
According to the report, released on Wednesday, the current “Super El Niño” could contribute to 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally during the first half of the event, compared with a normal year. Nigeria is among the countries facing the greatest mortality burden.
The projection is particularly sobering: about 31,400 additional heat-related deaths are projected in Nigeria between September 2026 and February 2027. Of these, approximately 15,400 are projected to occur between December and February.
These are not merely numbers. Each projected death represents a human being – a parent, child, grandparent, farmer, trader, worker or neighbour.
Yet, there is a reason we ought to take the report seriously. Just three weeks ago, the World Meteorological Organisation warned that the developing El Niño could exacerbate heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall in different regions. The agency then stressed the importance of preparing climate-sensitive sectors, including health, agriculture, water and energy.
That was a few weeks after the African Development Bank announced its fears that the expected “super” El Niño weather event could cost African countries between $10 billion and $20bn, reduce economic growth and force millions of people to leave their homes.
It is instructive to note that the previous El Niño event between 2023 and 2024 caused severe drought across parts of Africa, leading to poor harvests, rising food prices and record sea-level increases along the continent’s coastline.
The AfDB estimates that African farmers have already lost about $330 million in income this year because of climate-related impacts, while the fishing sector is also expected to suffer as warmer sea temperatures reduce fish stocks.
To be sure, we are already feeling the heat over here in Abuja, with many citizens complaining that these past two months have been abnormally hot. Hence, it was no surprise that scientists say August was Earth’s hottest month they have ever measured.
According to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, globally August was 1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, far exceeding the longer term 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set by the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
No wonder, the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab describes the phenomenon as a “postcard from the future”: temperatures that are abnormal today could become increasingly normal as the climate changes. Humanity is pushed into a climatic future that, under climate-change projections, might otherwise have arrived about two decades from now.
So, what exactly is El Niño? El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Although this warming occurs thousands of kilometres away from Nigeria, its atmospheric consequences can travel around the world.
El Niño alters established patterns of rainfall, temperature and atmospheric circulation, producing different effects in different parts of the globe. The CIL projects that global land temperatures will be about 1.2°C above normal in the coming months, with 44 per cent more extremely hot days than a normal year would have.
The next question is, how can heat actually kill? This is where the climate story becomes a health story. The human body operates within a relatively narrow temperature range. When environmental temperatures become excessively high, the body attempts to cool itself, principally through sweating and increased blood flow to the skin.
But there is a limit. When heat exposure becomes severe, prolonged or combined with high humidity, the body’s cooling mechanisms can begin to fail. The result can be heat exhaustion and, in more severe circumstances, heatstroke – a medical emergency in which the body’s core temperature rises dangerously and vital organs can become damaged.
But heat does not have to kill through heatstroke alone. Extreme temperatures can put enormous stress on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. They can worsen existing illnesses and increase the physiological burden on people whose bodies are already vulnerable.
This is why an apparently healthy person may collapse during a period of extreme heat, while someone living with an existing medical condition may face even greater danger.
Notably, there is a threat that is peculiar to Nigeria. It is called Meningitis. Nigeria lies partly within Africa’s meningitis belt, where meningococcal meningitis becomes more common during the dry season. So, during very hot, dry periods, humidity becomes extremely low, and this dries and irritates the mucous membranes of the nose and throat.
Thus, heat, very low humidity, dust and dry winds create environmental conditions that can increase vulnerability and transmission. This is particularly relevant in northern Nigeria. In March 2026, the World Health Organisation reported that Nigeria’s meningitis risk was receiving renewed attention, while a Nigeria Meteorological Agency alert identified several northern states at high risk under prevailing atmospheric conditions.
The CIL’s projections are based precisely on the relationship between temperature and excess mortality. Its researchers incorporated differences in local climate, vulnerability and adaptive capacity across 24,378 regions worldwide before applying projected temperature changes to estimate additional deaths.
In other words, the projected deaths do not mean that 31,400 Nigerians will necessarily die from the medical diagnosis called “heatstroke.”
Rather, the projection represents additional deaths associated with unusually high temperatures compared with what would normally be expected. That distinction matters.
Who is most vulnerable? Extreme heat does not affect everybody equally. The elderly is particularly vulnerable because their bodies may not regulate temperature as effectively as younger people. Infants and young children are also vulnerable.
People living with chronic illnesses can face additional risks. So can outdoor workers. Nigeria has millions of people whose livelihoods require them to work under the sun: farmers, construction workers, road workers, market traders, security personnel, transport workers, artisans and others.
For such people, “stay indoors during the hottest part of the day” may not be a realistic instruction. They have to work to eat. This is why heat protection cannot simply be reduced to individual responsibility. It must become part of occupational health, public-health planning and emergency preparedness.
Essentially, many of these deaths can potentially be prevented. The report identifies several interventions, including heat warnings, health outreach to vulnerable populations, cooling centres, hydration stations, protections for workers and increased health-system capacity.
This gives Nigeria a practical agenda. The country needs a functioning heat-health early warning system that can translate temperature forecasts into public-health action.
When dangerous heat is forecast, people should not simply be told that temperatures will be high. Health authorities should clearly communicate what citizens should do, who is most at risk, and where assistance is available.
Political leaders should have no illusions about climate change. It is real; it is happening. We must muster the political will to do the needful. A certain governor once attributed the onslaught of meningitis in his state to ‘sins of fornication’. This line of thinking is outrageous and barbaric.
Hospitals and primary healthcare centres should be prepared for increased heat-related emergencies. Outdoor workers should receive appropriate protection, including access to drinking water, rest periods and measures that reduce exposure during the most dangerous periods.
Schools, markets, transport terminals and other public spaces can be assessed for their vulnerability to extreme heat. Local governments can identify public buildings that could serve as temporary cooling and hydration centres during periods of dangerous heat. Health workers need to recognise the symptoms of heat-related illness early.
We must learn to see heat as an emergency. Nigeria has traditionally understood emergencies through dramatic events: floods sweeping through communities, buildings collapsing, epidemics spreading or vehicles crashing. Heat is different. It can be almost invisible, so we must be prepared to confront this unseen enemy.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
