On Monday morning, I drove through some major areas in Lagos. Those areas include Maryland, Ikeja, Egbeda, Ogba, Alausa and others. One thing that caught my attention during this trip was the different petrol prices displayed at filling stations along my route. The second thing was also about the stations. Most of them were empty.
Later that afternoon, as I was concluding the trip, I drove into a filling station on the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway. The station that I have been patronising for years, unlike the ones I saw in Lagos, did not display its price on the board. So, I drove in blindly, like the loyal customer I am, only to see N1,370 displayed on the pump. I should have suspected this from the way all the fuel attendants were sitting idly beside their pumps when I got there, and how they all jumped up, struggling to woo me to their pumps. At that point, driving out without buying was obviously not an option.
While the attendant attended to me, my eyes stayed glued to the pump as its naira value kept changing in a provocative way. At some point, I asked the attendant to stop. It was not as if the tank was filled up at the time. I did it simply to avoid another World War.
As I drove out of the station, my mind wandered to the fact that petrol sold around N739 at some stations at the beginning of 2026, whereas it is now around N1,400 in many outlets. I remember a time in this same country when one would feel like a king after buying N10,000 worth of fuel. Today, that same amount will purchase fuel that barely moves the fuel gauge.
Rising fuel prices have a huge impact on people. Commercial drivers must increase fares. Traders, after patronising the commercial drivers, must also increase prices. Small shop owners running generators face high costs and will pass the burden on to customers. Food and medicine prices will rise. School fees and book prices will go up. Some small businesses may not even cope. When petrol sneezes in Nigeria, virtually every other commodity catches a cold. What happens to salary earners whose incomes have not increased anywhere near the rate at which petrol has?
Petrol is now approaching or exceeding N1,400 per litre, depending on the stations or their locations. How did we arrive at this very disturbing point? Nigerians are no longer merely dealing with high petrol prices; they are dealing with volatile petrol prices. Families and businesses cannot plan when prices change several times within weeks.
Why are we in this mess? One major reason is global crude prices. Brent has recently moved above $100 per barrel amid disruptions linked to the US-Iran confrontation and pressure on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Also, deregulation is a factor. Once subsidies were removed and petrol pricing became market-driven, Nigeria became more exposed to international oil-market movements. Higher crude prices eventually feed into higher refined-product prices. The exchange rate and domestic crude supply also play a role.
Most of the time, these factors may not mean much to the majority of Nigerians. The only thing that will gladden the hearts of those in this category is a drastic reduction in petrol prices.
For them, Nigeria produces crude oil, and they find it difficult to understand why meat sellers’ children will be consuming bone and not meat.
Nigeria has four government-owned refineries on which enormous amounts have been spent over decades. The country now hosts one of the world’s largest single-train refineries, yet Nigerians remain extremely vulnerable to international oil-price shocks. Local refining does not mean crude oil suddenly becomes free, but there ought to be efficiencies from eliminating or reducing freight, insurance and other import-related costs. More importantly, domestic refining should strengthen energy security.
To be clear, I am not calling for a return to subsidies, at least not the old subsidy system. But I know that Nigerians understandably miss subsidised petrol because it provided an immediate cushion. That era also featured numerous problems that included enormous fiscal cost, smuggling, arbitrage, opaque claims, and corruption opportunities, among others.
In saving us from this mess we are currently in, the government still has more viable options it can explore other than restoring subsidies. The government can guarantee adequate domestic crude supply to Nigerian refineries, especially under arrangements that reduce unnecessary dollar exposure. It can get more refineries working and encourage competition. Nigeria cannot sustainably depend on one dominant refinery, regardless of how efficient or patriotic its owners may be. Competition ultimately better protects consumers.
The government also needs to use subsidy savings to strengthen public transportation and other services. Instead of spending trillions subsidising every litre consumed by rich and poor alike, the government can subsidise mass transit — buses, rail and other high-capacity systems. That directly helps workers. It must also accelerate CNG and alternative-energy adoption. Conversion must be affordable, and stations must be readily accessible.
Another major thing is for the government to improve electricity supply. Millions of Nigerians and businesses buy petrol for both their vehicles and their generators. Reliable electricity would immediately reduce household and business petrol consumption.
The issue is no longer merely whether petrol is N1,300 or N1,400. It is whether incomes and economic activity can survive repeated increases in the cost of the commodity around which so much of Nigerian life revolves. There are already claims that petrol may hit the N2,000 mark!
It is a fact that the government may no longer have to set the price on filling station pumps, but it cannot abdicate its responsibility for Nigerians’ welfare. If petrol must be sold at market price, then the government must build an economy in which Nigerians can afford market prices.
The sustainable response to expensive petrol is not about pretending that market forces do not exist or advocating the resurrection of an unsustainable universal subsidy. It is about reducing Nigeria’s exposure to those forces, creating competition, providing cheaper transport and energy alternatives, and increasing Nigerians’ capacity to absorb unavoidable price movements.
Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).
