Mixed Reactions to the NBS Report on Inflation
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) report released recently has sparked a range of reactions across Nigeria. The data indicates that prices of food items slightly decreased in September compared to August 2025, leading to a drop in the headline inflation rate to 18.02 percent. This reduction is attributed to lower average prices for several essential food items such as maize, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
Purchasing Power Remains Low
Despite the decline in food prices, many Nigerians have expressed mixed feelings about the NBS report. They argue that the report does not fully reflect the actual standards of living for citizens. A civil servant in Abuja, Khadija Adam, noted that while the prices of food commodities have dropped, the purchasing power of most people remains low, making it difficult for them to afford these goods. She mentioned that a measure of rice, which used to cost N2,500 in Suleja, now costs N1,500. However, she pointed out that some individuals still cannot afford it due to declining purchasing power over the years.
A provision seller at Lugbe, a suburb of Abuja, confirmed the price reductions in food commodities. He stated that items like rice, beans, spaghetti, and macaroni have seen price drops. When asked if people are buying more, he said, “Yes, people are buying, but not in the same quantities as when prices were high two years ago.” He added that a bag of 50 kg rice is sold between N50,000 and N60,000.
Optimism and Concerns
Kehinde Olufowobi, who resides in Ikorodu, described the inflation figure as a reflection of market conditions. He noted that staple foods like rice, beans, and garri have become more affordable, bringing relief to many households, especially those with low and middle incomes. He expressed hope for further price reductions, believing it would improve household welfare.
However, concerns remain about the trickle-down effect of the reduced inflation rate. Engr. Emmanuel Onuorah, president of the Premium Bakers’ Association of Nigeria (PBAN), stated that the reduced prices are not yet visible in people’s pockets. He emphasized that while some materials are still increasing in price, baking ingredients remain stable, which is why bread prices have not increased in the last year. He questioned how the inflation rate could be dropping without a noticeable impact on consumers.
What the NBS Report Says
The NBS report highlighted that the average annual food inflation rate for the twelve months ending September 2025 was 24.06 percent, a decrease of 13.47 percentage points compared to the previous twelve-month average of 37.53 percent. The food inflation rate in September 2025 was 16.87 percent on a year-on-year basis, a 20.9 percent decrease from the rate recorded in September 2024 (37.77 percent). This decline is technically due to the change in the base year.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in September 2025 was 0.72 percent, slightly lower than the 0.74 percent recorded in August 2025. This indicates that the rate of increase in the average price level was lower in September compared to August.
Regional Variations in Inflation
The report also noted that the All Items inflation rate on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Adamawa (23.69 percent), Katsina (23.53 percent), and Nasarawa (22.29 percent). Conversely, Anambra (9.28 percent), Niger (11.79 percent), and Bauchi (12.36 percent) recorded the lowest increases in headline inflation.
On a month-on-month basis, the highest increase was in Zamfara (9.36 percent), Adamawa (8.15 percent), and Nasarawa (7.49 percent), while Niger (-8.14 percent), Oyo (-5.56 percent), and Bayelsa (-4.61 percent) saw declines.
Food inflation on a Year-on-Year basis was highest in Ekiti (28.68 percent), Rivers (24.18 percent), and Nasarawa (22.74 percent), while Bauchi (2.81 percent), Niger (8.38 percent), and Anambra (8.41 percent) recorded the slowest rise.
Factors Behind the Drop in Inflation
Professor Uche Uwaleke, a professor of capital market, linked the drop in food prices to the appreciation of the Naira. He noted that the positive pass-through effect of the Naira’s appreciation in September on core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, has been significant. Core inflation is now under 20 percent. However, he emphasized that the current inflation rate of 18.02 percent is still far from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s long-term target of 9 percent.
Dr Muda Yusuf, Director/CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), acknowledged the commendable disinflation trajectory but stressed that inflation levels remain high, eroding household purchasing power and undermining consumer confidence. He urged the federal government to strengthen security in farming regions to facilitate production and market access.
Conclusion
While the NBS report highlights a slight improvement in inflation rates, the challenges of maintaining this trend and addressing structural issues remain significant. The next phase of reform must prioritize welfare-focused and cost-reduction measures to deliver tangible relief to citizens. With consistent policies, coordination, and structural reforms, Nigeria can work towards achieving a stable single-digit inflation rate, anchoring growth and improving welfare.
