The Evolution of Development in Liberia: A Tale of Two Eras
Liberia has always had a long list of development plans. From the post-civil war recovery to ambitious “vision” strategies and long-term agendas, successive governments have promised transformation. However, for ordinary Liberians, the real question is not about the length or complexity of these plans but whether they actually improve lives.
This question is especially relevant as we look back at the past six years under the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD) and compare it with the new energy introduced by the ARREST/AAID framework of the Boakai administration. The contrast between these two periods is stark: one was marked by stalled growth, high inflation, and broken promises, while the other, though still in its early stages, has already shown signs of stabilization and renewed hope.
So, which period was better? Let’s examine the evidence.
The PAPD Era (2017-2023): Ambition Without Delivery
The PAPD was launched in 2018 with lofty ambitions, promising to lift one million Liberians out of poverty. Its slogan, “power to the people,” resonated across the country, giving many hope that real change was on the horizon.
However, development is measured in outcomes, not just words. On this test, the PAPD struggled significantly.
Key Facts from the PAPD Years:
- GDP Growth: Averaged only 1-3% annually, far below what was needed to lift incomes in a rapidly growing population.
- Inflation: Peaked at 23% in 2018 and remained above 20% in 2019, becoming a silent tax on the poor.
- Extreme Poverty: Rose to approximately 41% by 2022, marking a significant human failure.
- Fiscal Deficit: Frequently exceeded 6% of GDP, leading to underfunded public services.
Growth collapsed after an initial 2.5% expansion in 2017. The economy contracted by 2.5% in 2019 and again in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation became a burden for everyday citizens, with food and rent consuming nearly every dollar earned. Poverty worsened, with many families slipping deeper into desperation. Fiscal discipline also declined, with frequent budget deficits forcing government borrowing and leaving critical services underfunded.
Governance issues further eroded trust, with corruption scandals undermining credibility both domestically and internationally. For many Liberians, the PAPD became synonymous with empty promises and little action.
The ARREST/AAID Era (2024-Present): Early Gains, Fragile but Real
When Joseph Boakai took office in January 2024, skepticism was high. Many doubted whether an aging leader could bring about meaningful change. Yet, the administration quickly framed a new development agenda: the ARREST agenda, later reinforced by the AAID strategy. This framework focused on practical areas such as agriculture, roads, education, sanitation, and investment.
Key Facts from the ARREST/AAID Years:
- GDP Growth: Reached 4.7% in 2023, with projections of 5-6% for 2024-2025.
- Inflation: Dropped to 10% in 2023 and is expected to stabilize between 5-8%.
- Extreme Poverty: Declined from around 41% in 2022 to 34% in 2024.
- Fiscal Deficit: Reduced to about 3% of GDP, allowing for more targeted spending.
Growth has rebounded, with the economy showing strong momentum. Inflation is now under control, meaning wages stretch further and imported goods are more affordable. While poverty remains high, there are signs of progress. Fiscal discipline has been restored, enabling the government to invest in infrastructure, education, and health systems.
Governance reforms are also gaining traction, with anti-corruption measures and audits helping to restore some confidence among international partners.
Why the Difference?
The contrast between the PAPD era and the current moment is not accidental. Three key lessons stand out:
- Governance Matters: Signals of seriousness—such as anti-corruption efforts—can attract investors and donors, and restore citizen trust.
- Focus Beats Slogans: The PAPD spread itself thin with broad promises, while the ARREST/AAID framework focuses on practical levers like agriculture and roads.
- Macroeconomic Stability Is Essential: Without sound budgets and stable prices, even the most ambitious plans can fail.
A Crossroads Moment
While the current gains remain fragile, Liberia is in a better place than it was five years ago. There is cautious optimism among donors, more confidence among investors, and a sense among ordinary citizens that the government is trying to deliver.
The comparison between the two periods is not just academic—it is a reminder that leadership choices matter. Plans must be more than slogans. Outcomes must be measured not in documents but in tangible improvements.
Liberia’s future will be written not in strategy papers but in the lived reality of its citizens. On that test, the early scorecard of the ARREST/AAID framework is stronger than that of the PAPD. The challenge now is simple: keep momentum alive, deliver tangible improvements, and prove that this time, the story will end differently.
Because in Liberia, the people have heard enough plans. What they need and what they deserve are results.
