Political Turmoil in Nepal
Nepal has seen a significant shift in its political landscape over the past few months, with Prime Minister Sushila Karki taking office on September 12. Her primary challenge is to organize federal elections within six months, a task that comes with considerable pressure and complexity. The environment for these elections must be secure and conducive for both candidates and voters, yet current conditions are far from ideal. Police morale is low, and there are indications that the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), led by KP Oli, may not participate in the upcoming elections. This raises concerns about whether the elections will even take place, with some hoping for the reinstatement of the dissolved House of Representatives.
President Ramchandra Paudel dissolved the Lower House at the recommendation of Prime Minister Karki, who was not a member of Parliament and had previously served as a Supreme Court chief justice. According to the 2015 Constitution, Karki should not have been eligible for the position, but she assumed it under extraordinary circumstances. This followed a spontaneous uprising that toppled the Oli government in less than 48 hours. A Gen Z anti-corruption movement on September 8 led to violent clashes, resulting in the loss of lives and widespread destruction of property, including the historic Singha Durbar.
Leadership Changes and Political Divisions
In the wake of the Gen Z movement, Sher Bahadur Deuba, president of the Nepali Congress, and his wife fled to Singapore after being roughed up during the protests. Deuba, who is set to turn 80 next June, has announced his retirement from active politics. The party is currently divided on whether to convene a general convention or a special convention to select a new leader. Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal recently unified his Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) with nine other fringe communist parties to form the Nepal Communist Party.
Dahal, who will be 71 next month and has served as prime minister three times between 2008 and 2024, is not ready to step back from politics. He has gathered a group of leaders in their 70s and 80s, including Madhav Kumar Nepal, Jhal Nath Khanal, Bam Dev Gautam, and Bhim Rawal. However, it remains uncertain whether they can contest and win seats in the upcoming elections. The Gen Z protesters, who called for governance reform and the transfer of leadership to younger generations, have not been heeded.
Resistance and Political Dynamics
In Bhaktapur’s Gundu, the voices of the Gen Z movement are not only ignored but also downplayed. Gundu is the current residence of Oli, whose Balkot residence was burned down during the protests. This shift from Balkot to Gundu symbolizes the abrupt changes in Nepali politics. Despite this, the message from Gundu suggests that everything is normal, disregarding the fact that Oli spent 10 days under Army protection post-resignation and that an interim government is in place. Calling for the reinstatement of Parliament seems unrealistic.
The UML leadership continues to show deference to Oli’s actions, which are seen as comical or inflammatory. As a four-time prime minister between 2015 and 2025, Oli has been the UML chair since 2014 and is reluctant to step down. If the UML leadership does not replace Oli in the upcoming general convention, they risk facing voter backlash in the elections.
Systemic Corruption and Economic Challenges
Corruption has been pervasive in Nepal since the onset of multiparty democracy in 1990, particularly after the abolition of monarchy in 2008. The system has been exploited to the limit, with examples such as Arzu Rana Deuba losing in parliamentary elections in 2017 but being appointed as a proportional representative and later becoming a minister. Similarly, Gautam was defeated in Bardiya but was appointed as a National Assembly member by Bhandari. The Upper House, intended to be filled with intellectuals and experts, has instead become a retirement center for party cadres.
Economically, Nepal’s public debt has increased significantly, reaching Rs2.72 trillion as of mid-October, up from Rs2.67 trillion in mid-July. The debt-to-GDP ratio has doubled to 44.6 percent over the past decade. This trend is concerning, and the youth are increasingly aware of the burden they will bear due to the mismanagement of the ruling class.
The Power of the People
The Gen Z protests highlight where true power lies. Young people rose without a leader, but this lack of leadership may have cost them the opportunity to completely overhaul the system. Past revolutions led to new constitutions, but this time, the Gen Z leaders did not ask for an interim constitution. This has allowed Oli to call for the restoration of Parliament, as people may be lulled into complacency.
The danger is that if the leading political parties do not tread carefully, the nation may see more unrest. The Gen Z movement is a testament to the power of the people, and it is crucial that the political landscape evolves to reflect the needs and aspirations of the younger generation.
