Ruto Leads as Sifuna Surpasses Kalonzo in 2027 Presidential Race

Rising Star in Kenyan Opposition Politics

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna has emerged as the most preferred presidential contender within the opposition, surpassing Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka according to a recent survey conducted by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA). The findings highlight significant shifts in political dynamics as the 2027 general election approaches.

The survey also reveals that President William Ruto continues to lead the race for State House but still falls short of the 50 percent plus one threshold needed to secure victory in the first round. Despite this, Ruto maintains his position as the country’s most preferred presidential candidate, with support remaining stable at 24 percent between May and June 2026.

Sifuna’s rise is particularly notable, as he climbed from 10 percent in May to 15 percent in June, overtaking Kalonzo, whose support dropped from 19 to 13 percent. This growth marks a significant shift, as Sifuna has moved from virtually no support in 2025 to 15 percent in June 2026, positioning him among the leading opposition contenders.

Other opposition figures include former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who ranks third with 14 percent, and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, whose support slipped from nine to seven percent. Embakasi East MP Babu Owino remains at two percent.

Key Developments in the Political Landscape

TIFA notes that Sifuna’s rise has been remarkable, especially considering he had virtually no measurable support when tracking the post-Raila Odinga political landscape. From zero percent in November 2025 to 15 percent in June 2026, Sifuna’s steady growth underscores his increasing appeal.

The survey was conducted between June 13 and June 22 through face-to-face household interviews involving 2,048 randomly selected adults across all 47 counties. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.18 percentage points.

Kalonzo’s support has nearly halved since November 2025, falling from 25 to 13 percent. Matiang’i, who briefly led the field after Raila’s death, also lost ground, while Gachagua’s numbers dipped amid uncertainty over his legal challenge against his impeachment.

Despite Sifuna’s gains, the survey concludes that Ruto continues to benefit from a divided opposition. TIFA argues that while Ruto commands only about a quarter of Kenyans’ support nationally, none of his rivals has built sufficient national appeal beyond their traditional regional strongholds.

Shifting Perceptions and Regional Loyalties

The survey also examined perceptions of who would be best placed to defeat Ruto. Kenyans were almost evenly divided, with 18 percent naming Sifuna and another 18 percent choosing Matiang’i as the strongest challenger. Kalonzo followed at 16 percent, while Gachagua received 14 percent backing.

These findings underline the difficult negotiations expected within the opposition as leaders seek to agree on a single presidential flagbearer. The pressure on Gachagua to shelve his presidential ambitions and instead back a consensus candidate is mounting.

Among respondents opposed to Ruto’s re-election, 62 percent said Gachagua should support another opposition leader rather than insist on leading the coalition himself. Specifically, 33 percent said the opposition would have its best chance of victory if Gachagua is cleared to contest but chooses to support another candidate, while 29 percent held the same view even if he is barred from contesting because of his impeachment case.

“The findings indicate that anti-Ruto voters are primarily focused on maximizing the opposition’s chances of victory, regardless of who heads the coalition,” the pollster states.

Only 14 percent believed Gachagua should become the opposition’s presidential flag bearer, while five percent said Ruto cannot be defeated regardless of the opposition’s strategy.

Party Dynamics and Future Prospects

The poll further examined support within individual political parties. Among ODM supporters, Sifuna emerged as the overwhelming favorite for president, attracting 44 percent support. Two-thirds of ODM supporters are backing Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi movement, with Oburu Oginga-led Linda Ground enjoying only 20 percent support.

Ruto ranked second among ODM supporters with 20 percent, while Matiang’i attracted nine percent. Babu Owino and Kalonzo each received four percent, with former Chief Justice David Maraga polling two percent.

Within UDA, Ruto enjoys overwhelming loyalty, with 84 percent of party supporters backing his re-election bid. Jubilee supporters were equally united behind Matiang’i, with 73 percent identifying him as their preferred presidential candidate, while Wiper recorded the strongest internal cohesion of all parties surveyed, with 90 percent of its supporters backing Kalonzo.

Supporters of Gachagua’s DCP were more divided, with only 44 percent backing him to run for State House. Some 19 percent of DCP supporters backed Kalonzo’s candidature, while 15 percent supported Matiang’i.

“The survey indicates that UDA supporters remain highly consolidated behind Ruto, while Jubilee supporters have largely rallied behind Matiang’i,” TIFA said.

TIFA cautioned that the findings represent public opinion during the survey period and could shift as political realignments continue ahead of the 2027 general election.