Mozambique’s Strategic Importance and the Challenge of Stability
Mozambique, located on Africa’s southeastern coast along the Indian Ocean, is rich in hydrocarbons and critical minerals. The country also controls a vital shipping corridor—the Mozambique Channel—stretching between the mainland and Madagascar. This passage has become a key route for commercial vessels seeking to avoid the pirate-infested Red Sea.
For years, Mozambique remained relatively overlooked by US policymakers. However, its resource wealth and strategic location have now drawn attention from foreign investors. Despite this, economic engagement in the country is complex, as most of its assets are concentrated in the north, where the Islamic State affiliate ISIS-Mozambique (ISIS-M) continues to operate.
For the United States, which seeks access to critical minerals and strategic resources while maintaining a commitment to counterterrorism, this necessitates a dual approach: building commercial ties with Mozambique and strengthening security-sector cooperation to ensure the country’s stability and economic potential.
Gas Discoveries and Economic Engagement
Gas discoveries in the north during the 2010s transformed Mozambique into one of the world’s top gas producers. The US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) and the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) have since invested heavily in the country’s energy sector, particularly in developing its liquefied natural gas (LNG) reserves. These investments have also extended to projects supporting economic stability in northern communities.
In March 2025, EXIM approved a $4.7 billion loan for LNG equipment and services. Similarly, DFC launched several projects, ranging from less than $175,000 to $1.5 billion, aimed at bolstering energy security for large LNG ventures and surrounding communities. These investments not only support economic engagement but also aim to build resilience in areas vulnerable to ISIS-M influence. ExxonMobil’s and TotalEnergies’ investments in Mozambique also represent key down payments to ensure a stable supply of non-Russian LNG for the US and its allies.
Security Challenges and Economic Risks
Beyond its gas reserves, Mozambique hosts the Balama mine, one of the world’s largest graphite mines, and several other emerging critical minerals sites. Mozambican graphite is essential for steelmaking, nuclear reactors, lithium-ion batteries, and heavy machinery lubricants—key components of the US industrial base. New mining concessions continue to be announced across the country.
However, progress in exporting Mozambique’s LNG and critical minerals has been hindered by insecurity. ISIS-M’s terrorist attacks in the north, beginning in 2017, pose a direct threat to major US energy and mineral investments in Cabo Delgado. These attacks disrupt local governance, cause mass displacement, and result in civilian casualties. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), Mozambique has witnessed over 2,162 political-violence events and 6,165 total fatalities since 2017.
Despite being identified as a priority under the Global Fragility Act (GFA), meaningful policy attention and funding have not materialized. The current administration rescinded $200 million in GFA funds that would have supported stability near LNG and mining projects. In contrast, Mozambique received nearly $820 million in development assistance in FY 2024, mostly for health programming.
Building Stability Through Partnership
The Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF) first deployed to Mozambique in 2021 as part of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission and have since maintained a presence in the north. While imperfect, the RDF’s efforts have helped reduce violence, allowing the TotalEnergies-ExxonMobil consortium to lift its force majeure declaration on the Cabo Delgado LNG project.
This mission reflects the principle of “African solutions to African problems.” However, Rwanda’s efforts alone cannot stabilize the region. Given Mozambique’s strategic resources and manageable terrorist threat, the US administration should collaborate with Rwanda and other allies like France and Portugal to pool resources for stability. This approach aligns with the burden-sharing model promoted by the Trump administration.
Expanding Security Cooperation
To reinforce regional counterterrorism efforts, the Department of Defense and the State Department should expand security cooperation and assistance in northern Mozambique. Failure to engage risks leaving US firms dependent on insufficient Rwandan support or Chinese security guarantees. US Special Operations Forces could strengthen Mozambican and regional forces through joint training, civil affairs projects, and military information support operations.
A Model for US Engagement in Africa
Integrated regional solutions supported by measured US engagement can help ensure Mozambique remains a stable and secure partner contributing to the US industrial base. Such a strategy could serve as a model of “security through investment,” applicable elsewhere in Africa.
Maritime forces from the US and partners like India should conduct freedom of navigation operations in the Mozambique Channel to preserve open access to this vital trade artery. Additionally, the State Department’s counterterrorism programs should strengthen community-security force cooperation to protect strategic investments and prevent further attacks.
As global competition for critical resources intensifies, Africa will serve as a testing ground for the fusion of finance and security. Modest, targeted investments in Mozambique’s stability—building on those already made by regional partners—and a focus on value creation represent the clearest example of how US capital can shape a security posture in Africa.
