European Commission Faces Critical Votes of Confidence
The European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, is set to face two votes of confidence on Thursday. This comes just three months after the Commission narrowly survived a previous motion of censure. The votes will take place at noon in Strasbourg, with MEPs voting on each motion one after the other. To pass a motion of censure, at least two-thirds of the votes cast—equivalent to 360 out of 719 members—must be in favor. A successful vote would force the entire European Commission to resign.
Motions of Censure: Key Issues and Concerns
Two motions of censure have been introduced by different political groups. The first motion was tabled by the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, while the second was proposed by The Left group. Both motions were discussed in a joint debate last Monday.
The PfE’s motion focuses on the European Commission’s environmental policies and recent trade agreements with the US and Mercosur countries. It argues that these agreements threaten Europe’s farming industry by allowing products that do not meet EU environmental, social, and health standards. This, it claims, creates unfair competition and puts thousands of European farmers and livestock producers at risk. The motion also criticizes the Commission’s handling of irregular migration and an alleged lack of transparency.
The Left’s motion shares some common concerns, including the EU-Mercosur free trade deal, the EU-US trade deal, and von der Leyen’s alleged lack of transparency. However, it also condemns the Commission’s failure to address the climate crisis and the social crisis across Europe. Additionally, it criticizes the Commission’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war, labeling it as a “failure to act in response to the Israeli government’s brutal military assaults and systematic violations of international and humanitarian law in Gaza.”
During the joint debate, PfE President Jordan Bardella and The Left co-chair Manon Aubry voiced their criticisms in an effort to persuade their colleagues to support the respective motions.
Von der Leyen’s Response and Political Stances
Von der Leyen responded to the motions with a more conciliatory tone compared to her defiant intervention in July, when she accused the promoters of the motion of censure of being under the control of “their puppet masters in Russia or elsewhere.” This time, she emphasized the need to focus on delivering results for Europeans.
Voting Patterns of Centrist Groups
After two days of meetings and internal discussions, most political groups have adopted a standard line on the two motions of censure. Von der Leyen’s EPP group, which includes 188 MEPs, is fully aligned behind the Commission and will vote against both motions. EPP’s chair, Manfred Weber, criticized the confidence votes as “a little bit ridiculous” and a “simple propaganda tool.”
The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group, with 136 MEPs, will also not support the two no-confidence attempts. However, some S&D MEPs might take a different approach between the two votes. They could vote against the PfE motion but abstain or not attend the vote on The Left’s motion, as some socialists feel closer to The Left’s interests.
Renew Europe, consisting of 75 MEPs, has also clearly opposed both motions. Its chair, Valérie Hayer, labeled the parties proposing the motions as “trolls.” The group’s spokesperson, Vincent Stuer, stated that they are not playing the game.
It remains unclear whether any liberal MEPs will break ranks or not attend the vote. In the last confidence vote, 60 out of 75 followed the group’s line, with the others abstaining or absent. EPP, S&D, and Renew form the “centrist coalition,” which supports the Commission. The extent of their support will be a key outcome of the vote for von der Leyen.
Right-Wing and Left-Wing Voting Trends
On the right wing of the Parliament, the Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, with 84 MEPs, is expected to vote for its own motion. However, it may also support The Left’s motion. Italian MEP Roberto Vannacci (PfE) told Euronews that he and his colleagues will join the effort to topple the Commission, despite not agreeing with the wording on Gaza contained in The Left’s motion.
The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), with 79 MEPs, has left the decision to its national delegations. According to internal sources, it is expected to split up, similar to the last confidence vote, when half of the group supported the motion and the other half either did not participate or voted against it.
The Europe of Sovereign Nations group (ESN), with 27 MEPs, has consistently opposed the Commission and is likely to support the motions. An internal source from the group told Euronews that many of its MEPs will support The Left’s motion, even though its wording could naturally lead them to abstain.
Leftist groups of the Parliament are also expected to show some divisions. The Greens/EFA group (53 MEPs) is oriented to vote against both motions. However, some of its MEPs from Spain and Italy are among the signatories of The Left’s initiative and will vote for it in the plenary.
Dilemmas Within The Left Group
The Left group, with 46 MEPs, faces a sharp dilemma. While the group remains committed to toppling the Commission, it does not want to join forces with the far right. Despite The Left’s chair Aubry’s promise not to vote for the PfE motion, the Italian party Five Star Movement will support it, and other delegations like the Irish Sinn Féin may follow.
Although the threshold needed to topple the Commission will likely not be reached, the numbers from the previous vote of confidence in July—175 MEPs voted in favor of the motion of censure and 360 against—are significant. Any increase in the first number would represent a symbolic victory for the proponents of the motion. Conversely, any decrease in the second number would be a worrying signal for von der Leyen that her approval rate in the Parliament is shrinking.
