Why Tinubu Dreads Jonathan’s 2027 Return

The Political Tensions Surrounding Jonathan’s Potential Return

Although former President Goodluck Jonathan hasn’t officially declared his intention to run for president, the current administration under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu seems to be deeply unsettled by the mere possibility of his return. This unease is evident in the statements made by Tinubu’s spokespersons and close allies, who have expressed strong opposition to the idea of Jonathan re-entering the political arena.

Bayo Onanuga, the official spokesperson for Tinubu, has dismissed the notion of Jonathan running in the 2027 election as “delusional.” He argued that Jonathan’s record on the economy and governance would make it difficult for him to gain support from the Nigerian electorate. Onanuga also questioned Jonathan’s eligibility for a third term and warned that those promoting his candidacy might abandon him if things don’t go well.

The Lagos State branch of the All Progressives Congress (APC), which holds significant influence given its proximity to Tinubu’s home base, has also ridiculed the idea of Jonathan’s comeback. They suggested that he would need an “overdose of good luck” to be competitive. The branch criticized the push for Jonathan’s return, suggesting that it is driven more by nostalgia than by genuine political competence.

Why the Panic?

The apparent fear within Tinubu’s inner circle over Jonathan’s potential return is puzzling for several reasons. First, Jonathan currently lacks a strong political base. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), on which he would likely run, is in disarray and divided. Additionally, the Southeast region, once a reliable support base for Jonathan, has shifted its allegiance to Peter Obi, the candidate from the same region.

Without a solid grassroots structure, a strong party platform, or the backing of governors, Jonathan’s chances of making a meaningful comeback are slim. It seems that the recent statements from the Tinubu camp may be inflating Jonathan’s relevance rather than reflecting his actual political strength.

Second, if Tinubu were to encourage Jonathan’s participation in the 2027 election, it could potentially benefit his own campaign. Jonathan’s appeal overlaps with that of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, both of whom are also vying for the presidency. A three-way race could lead to internal divisions within the opposition, similar to what happened in the 2023 election.

If Jonathan isn’t a real threat, why does Tinubu seem so fearful? One possible explanation lies in the similarities between their economic policies and governance styles. Both leaders have pursued similar approaches, with Tinubu continuing policies that Jonathan had previously attempted but later abandoned due to public backlash.

Economic Policies and Public Perception

Onanuga’s criticism of Jonathan’s economic record unintentionally highlights concerns about Tinubu’s own policies. Despite different contexts, both leaders have implemented similar economic strategies. For example, Jonathan’s attempt to remove petrol subsidies in 2012 led to mass protests, forcing him to implement a partial rollback. He paired this with the SURE-P program to support vulnerable households.

Tinubu followed a similar approach by ending petrol subsidies in 2023. However, unlike Jonathan, Tinubu faced little resistance due to the weakened opposition and the integration of former protesters into the government. While Tinubu’s regime celebrates these policies as achievements, many Nigerians remain skeptical about their effectiveness.

This similarity in policy approaches raises questions about the legitimacy of Tinubu’s administration. The APC’s reference to nostalgia for Jonathan is significant because it suggests that Tinubu’s supporters recognize the parallels between their policies and those of Jonathan.

Psychological Projection and Political Strategy

The strategy employed by APC operatives involves a psychological mechanism known as projection. By accusing Jonathan of flaws that they themselves may possess, they attempt to deflect scrutiny and avoid accountability. This tactic can be effective in politics, as it muddies the waters and shifts attention away from the true issues at hand.

Nostalgia can also be a powerful tool in elections. Figures like Donald Trump and Peter Mutharika have benefited from the emotional appeal of past eras, even when their policies did not deliver on promises. In Malawi, Mutharika’s victory in 2025 was partly fueled by nostalgic feelings toward his previous tenure.

In my August 2025 column, I acknowledged that Jonathan’s presidency had some positive aspects, such as his willingness to back down from unpopular policies after sustained public pressure. These actions set him apart from his successors, making his potential return even more unsettling for Tinubu’s camp.

The Power of Nostalgia

The danger for Tinubu is not that Jonathan has a solution to Nigeria’s crises, but that the memory of his era could take on a golden hue amid current hardships. Even if Jonathan cannot turn things around, nostalgia doesn’t need to be rational to be politically potent; it only needs to resonate emotionally with a suffering electorate.

This latent power of memory is what keeps Tinubu’s camp on edge, especially if Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi decide to unite behind him. Tinubu’s fear of Jonathan reflects the fragile legitimacy of his own policies. When a government mirrors the past it once condemned, it risks empowering nostalgia as a political force.

In a country battered by hardship, memory can be as decisive at the ballot box as manifestos. The potential return of Jonathan, whether real or perceived, could significantly impact the 2027 election landscape.