Nigeria’s Push for Higher OPEC Quota
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, has announced that Nigeria will be seeking a higher oil production quota at the next meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November. This move comes as part of an effort to align Nigeria’s production capacity with its current output levels and future potential.
Lokpobiri made this declaration during a special bulletin released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The bulletin reviewed Nigeria’s upstream oil performance four years after the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and the establishment of the NUPRC. According to the minister, the current OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) no longer reflects Nigeria’s true production capacity.
He emphasized that the upcoming OPEC meeting presents a significant opportunity for Nigeria to advocate for an upward revision of its quota to at least 2 million barrels per day. “The OPEC quota is subject to periodic review, and by November, when we attend the annual meeting, we will certainly be making a case for a higher quota for Nigeria,” he stated.
Daily Trust reports that Nigeria’s crude oil production has seen a notable increase in recent times, hovering around 1.7 mbpd. However, this is still below the 2.2m barrel target set by the federal government in the 2025 budget. Despite this, Lokpobiri expressed confidence that Nigeria’s improved output levels, strengthened infrastructure, and renewed investments in the upstream sector would support the country’s case for a higher quota.
Key Factors Supporting Nigeria’s Case
Lokpobiri highlighted several factors that position Nigeria to make a strong case for a higher OPEC quota. These include the sustained recovery in production, improved regulatory environment, and fresh inflow of investment into the oil and gas sector. He noted that when he became Minister, Nigeria’s OPEC quota was 1.5 million barrels per day because production at that time was below that level. Today, Nigeria is producing around 1.7 million barrels daily, including condensates, and has the capacity to produce above two million barrels per day.
Condensate, a lighter, higher-value form of crude not covered by OPEC’s production limits, gives Nigeria flexibility without violating its quota. “If we do 1.5 million barrels of crude and one million barrels of condensate, we are still within the rules,” Lokpobiri said. He added that verifiable production data, domestic crude supply obligations under the PIA, and evidence of renewed capacity would form part of Nigeria’s case at the OPEC meeting.
Improvements in Security and Infrastructure
Lokpobiri attributed the production rebound to improved security and better pipeline integrity across the Niger Delta. “Before now, companies were scared to produce because crude pumped into pipelines hardly got to the terminal,” he said. “Today, if you put in crude, you get 100 per cent at the export point.”
He also pointed to the recent interventions by security agencies and community partnerships that have reversed the trend of pipeline vandalism and oil theft. According to him, Nigeria’s rig count, a key indicator of upstream activity, has jumped from about 14 to nearly 50 and is expected to rise further by year-end.
Investor Confidence and Regulatory Reforms
Lokpobiri praised the recent wave of divestments by oil majors such as Shell, TotalEnergies, and ExxonMobil, saying they had opened opportunities for capable Nigerian operators. He also highlighted the role of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), 2021, in reviving interest in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector.
During a visit by the NUPRC management, Lokpobiri stated that the narrative in the upstream oil and gas sector is restoring investors’ confidence in the petroleum industry. He commended the leadership of NUPRC’s Chief Executive, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, for his outstanding work over the past four years.
Feasibility of a 2 Million Barrel Quota
While Nigeria has continued to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5m barrels per day of crude oil, there are doubts over the feasibility of a 2m bpd quota amidst market uncertainty and volatility. Daily Trust reports that Nigeria failed to meet the 2025 production target of 2.2m bpd as projected in the 2025 budget.
Experts question whether Nigeria can cope with an additional 500,000 bpd quota. An industry player suggested that the move might be to satisfy supplies to the Dangote Refinery while still having enough to sell. “Question is can we reach that level of production,” the expert added.
However, Dr. Garuba Dauda, an oil and gas expert, believes the move is worth pursuing. He pointed to relative stability in the Niger Delta and less reported cases of oil theft as reasons to push for an upward review of Nigeria’s oil production quota.
Ending Gas Flaring by 2030
Meanwhile, the NUPRC has stated that reducing gas flaring will ensure the country meets its target of utilising all petroleum products produced by 2030. Speaking during the International Conference on Hydrocarbon Science and Technology, NUPRC’s CE, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, emphasized the need to govern resources in ways that build trust, attract sustainable investment, uplift the people, safeguard the environment, and secure Nigeria’s place in the global shift toward sustainable energy.
Komolafe highlighted that gas once burned wastefully into the sky is now being positioned for full utilisation to power homes, drive small industries, and provide clean cooking energy for millions. Through the NUPRC’s flare gas commercialisation initiatives, Nigeria is making steady progress toward achieving complete flare-out by 2030.
