The average cost of Christmas dinner at a supermarket now stands at £32.46 with cranberry sauce and stuffing mix seeing the biggest increases over the past year.
Gravy granules, carrots, cauliflower, Brussels sprouts, sparking wine, potatoes and Christmas pudding also went up in price, according to Worldpanel by Numerator.
But a fall in the cost of frozen turkey and parsnips saw the overall cost in the four weeks to November 30 slip by 11p compared to last year’s total of £32.57.
Researchers added that overall grocery price inflation across 75,000 products at all stores now stands at 4.7 per cent for the same period – unchanged from October.
But prices are rising fastest in markets such as chocolate confectionery, unprocessed fresh meat and added value poultry – such as marinated skewers and nuggets.
Chocolate prices are now up 18.4 per cent on the same time last year due to a record-high surge in the cost of cocoa beans following poor harvests in West Africa.
But there was better news for shoppers looking to buy sugar confectionery, household paper and fragrances – with prices falling fastest for those products.
The biggest annual percentage rise among Christmas dinner ingredients calculated for four people was for cranberry sauce, up 10 per cent to an average of 86p.
Stuffing mix was up 7 per cent to 96p; followed by carrots, up 6 per cent to 52p; then gravy granules, up 5 per cent to £2.23; and cauliflower, up 4 per cent to £1.22.
Also rising were Brussels sprouts, up 4 per cent to 92p; wine, up 2 per cent to £6.51; potatoes, up 1 per cent to £1.67; and Christmas pudding, up 1 per cent to £3.34.
The only two products to fall were frozen turkey, down 4 per cent to £13.52; and parsnips, down 0.4 per cent to 71p. This gave an overall total of £32.46.
The data also showed take-home sales have risen below inflation by 3.4 per cent over the past four weeks, as retailers ramp up investment in promotions to get shoppers through their doors ahead of Christmas.
Sales are set to exceed £13.6billion in December. Last month 31.2 per cent of spending was on promoted items, up from 30 per cent this time last year.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: ‘Retailers are pulling out all the stops to win shoppers over as they gear up for one of the most important trading periods of the year.
‘One in five households tell us that they’ve been struggling financially and that’s been largely consistent over the past two years.
‘With the cost of living still biting for many this Christmas, just under one third of all spending is on promotion as supermarkets find ways to shield shoppers from the impact of price rises.’
Researchers said the emphasis on offers and lower pricing means had resulted in the slight fall in the cost of Christmas dinner – but retailers were aware that consumers want to ‘indulge during the festive season’.
Mr McKevitt added: ‘Retailers are savvy to the fact that at Christmas especially – even when times are tough – consumers still find the space in their wallet to spend on small treats.
‘In fact, we’ve seen that right through the cost of living crisis as people have found new, more affordable ways to indulge in what we call the ‘pick-me-up pound’.
‘The rise and rise of premium own label lines bears this out with one in every £20 now spent on these treat-type products.’
Five million households bought a confectionery advent calendar last month, while one in ten shoppers bought a bottle of champagne or sparkling wine.
Experts also said online remains the fastest growing part of the market with sales up by 8 per cent in November to reach the second highest ever sales in a month since the high of February 2021 during the pandemic.
Online grocer Ocado reached a new record market share of 2.2 per cent with sales increasing by 15.8 per cent over the quarter.
However, bricks and mortar still dominates the grocery sector and, with Christmas falling on a Thursday this year, Monday 22 and Tuesday 23 are expected to be the busiest supermarket shopping days of the year.
Lidl made the biggest market share gain, winning an additional 0.5 percentage points compared with last year to reach 8.1 per cent.
Sales at Sainsbury’s rose by 5.1 per cent, bringing the retailer’s market share to 16 per cent, and Tesco achieved sales growth of 4.7 per cent as it attracted 321,000 more shoppers over the 12 weeks compared with last year to holds 28.3 per cent of the market.
| Grocer | 12 weeks to Dec 1, 2024 (£m) | Share | // | 12 weeks to Nov 30, 2025 | Share | // | Change YOY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL GROCERS | 34,669 | 100.0% | // | 35,904 | 100.0% | // | 3.6% |
| TOTAL MULTIPLES | 34,195 | 98.6% | // | 35,441 | 98.7% | // | 3.6% |
| Tesco | 9,709 | 28.0% | // | 10,162 | 28.3% | // | 4.7% |
| Sainsbury’s | 5,455 | 15.7% | // | 5,733 | 16.0% | // | 5.1% |
| Asda | 4,307 | 12.4% | // | 4,123 | 11.5% | // | -4.3% |
| Aldi | 3,628 | 10.5% | // | 3,776 | 10.5% | // | 4.1% |
| Morrisons | 2,926 | 8.4% | // | 2,987 | 8.3% | // | 2.1% |
| Lidl | 2,642 | 7.6% | // | 2,911 | 8.1% | // | 10.2% |
| Co-op | 1,918 | 5.5% | // | 1,891 | 5.3% | // | -1.4% |
| Waitrose | 1,534 | 4.4% | // | 1,596 | 4.4% | // | 4.0% |
| Iceland | 785 | 2.3% | // | 816 | 2.3% | // | 4.0% |
| Ocado | 667 | 1.9% | // | 772 | 2.2% | // | 15.8% |
| Other Multiples | 624 | 1.8% | // | 674 | 1.9% | // | 8.1% |
| Symbols & Independents | 474 | 1.4% | // | 463 | 1.3% | // | -2.4% |
| Source: Data from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar) |
Spending through the tills at Aldi increased by 4.1 per cent and its share remains at 10.5 per cent, while Waitrose and Iceland both grew ahead of the market at 4 per cent, maintaining shares of 4.4 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively.
Sales at Asda now account for 11.5 per cent of the market, down 4.3 per cent on last year, while Co-op’s share stands at 5.3 per cent, down 1.4 per cent on last November.
Beyond the grocers, sales of take-home groceries at M&S were 8.9 per cent higher over the 12 weeks compared with the same period in 2024.
It comes as Aldi revealed this week that it would undercut rival Lidl’s £11.85 turkey feast for eight people this Christmas – with a marginally lower price of £11.75.
The chain said a 3.05kg turkey will be £9; along with two 170g packs of sage and onion stuffing mix at 45p each; and Yorkshire puddings at 46p for a 15-pack.
The 8p vegetables featured in Aldi’s ‘Christmas Super Six’ promotion are 2kg of white Potatoes, 500g of Brussels sprouts, 1kg of carrots and two 500g bags of parsnips.
Gravy granules priced at 99p for 300g complete the total at £11.75 – 10p cheaper than the £11.85 total Lidl announced for the same products on November 24.
Aldi insisted that farmers would not lose out because the business uses fixed-cost pricing for UK growers to ‘ensure they receive a fair price, no matter the season’.
Lidl and Aldi will both have the 8p price while stocks last on six vegetables in total – including the four in the Christmas dinner total, plus individual swedes as the fifth.
The sixth will be echalion shallots at Lidl; and red and white cabbages at Aldi. The 8p deal will be active from December 18 to 24 at Aldi, and December 19 to 24 at Lidl.
Sainsbury’s announced last week that it had created a festive roast for six people for £13.31 – with its Christmas vegetables set to be reduced to as little as 15p.
Read more
- What astonishing value does Lidl offer for a full Christmas dinner, with festive staples at unbelievable prices?
- Is Lidl leading the festive feast frenzy with its tantalizing £11.85 Christmas dinner for eight, sparking a supermarket seasonal showdown?
- How are Aldi and Lidl igniting a supermarket war with their staggeringly low-priced £11.85 Christmas turkey feasts for eight people?
- Can Britain’s supermarkets justify these eye-popping turkey prices in the Yuletide showdown for a premium festive feast?
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