The Enduring Challenge of Federalism in Nigerian Politics
Nearly 80 years after the initial warnings, the idea of political rotation continues to haunt Nigeria’s political landscape. As 2027 draws closer, discussions about whose “turn” it is have resurfaced, as if the presidency were a rotational title rather than a national office. It is essential to remember that the Nigerian Presidency is not a birthright for any group or individual. To build a true nation, we must move beyond this mindset and embrace a more inclusive and democratic approach.
Federalism and Its Influence on Political Dynamics
The concept of federalism is playing a significant role in shaping the current political environment, particularly among opposition parties. Whether by design or through indirect influence, these groups are operating within a framework that emphasizes public solutions and compromises. This coalition has managed to bring together various parties and individual politicians at the table, with ongoing discussions showing a positive trajectory.
Unlike the APC’s slogan, “It is the turn of the South,” which suggests a regional bias, the opposition is focusing on listening to the voices of Nigerians. This approach is inspired by the original American model of federalism, where decisions are made at the most local level. The American founders believed that a large population could not rely solely on loud campaigns and slogans to choose a good president. Instead, they designed a system that allowed citizens at the local level to make decisions collectively.
Local Decision-Making and Democratic Principles
In the United States, party members select their preferred candidate through primaries or caucuses, where voters pick delegates pledged to candidates. These delegates then attend the party’s national convention to vote for the nominee. This process ensures that the voice of the people is heard at every stage.
Nigeria has adopted a similar model, where political parties choose their presidential candidates through primaries. These can be direct, indirect, or consensus-based, as outlined in the 2022 Electoral Act. In direct primaries, all registered party members participate in the voting process. Indirect primaries involve selected delegates choosing the candidate, while consensus involves party leaders agreeing on a single candidate.
The Misguided Slogan of Regional Rotation
Despite these mechanisms, some fringe opposition politicians are attempting to bypass the selection process using a misleading slogan: “It is the turn of the South.” Those behind this slogan are aware of its narrow-minded nature but use it as a tactic to rally support from Southern voters. This approach mirrors what was seen in the 2023 Muslim-Muslim ticket, which attempted to sway voters across faith lines.
If the opposition persists with this argument, they risk losing the national debate before the campaign even begins. At the general election, they may find themselves isolated, framed as regional candidates without a strong base in the North. Tinubu, on the other hand, will likely position himself as the candidate of northern religious interests, using familiar language and identity to appeal to Northern voters.
A Shift Toward National Unity
However, there is a silver lining. Since the advent of the Fourth Republic, Nigeria’s democratic experience has matured, allowing citizens to choose their president regardless of region, tribe, or religion. By 2027, it would be misguided for any one person, group, or region to claim the right to the presidency. The South has had 17 years in power, while the North has had 11 years since 1999.
Of the five presidents since 1999, only two—Obasanjo and Buhari—were re-elected, each from a different region. Goodluck Jonathan (GEJ) was elected in 2011 but served only one term. His election was successful because Nigerians did not argue for the power to remain in the North for a second term. This demonstrated political maturity, as Nigerians rejected GEJ’s third-term bid in 2007 and later formed the APC to oust him in 2015.
Lessons from the Past
These experiences show that no region owns Nigeria. The 2023 election highlighted the role of religion, region, and ethnicity, but 2027 will be different as political experiments have been exhausted. Nigerians have played politics based on ethnicity, religion, and region, but this was due to an inferior system. There is now a growing belief that improvements are coming in 2027, thanks to the evolution of the current political coalition.
Moving Beyond Rotation
While some argue for the unwritten rule of rotation within ruling parties, this rule can be reconsidered for those advocating for spreading leadership across all geopolitical zones. Even the PDP constitution, which promotes power shift and sharing, does not grant entitlement to two terms.
Although leadership in Nigeria did not begin in the Fourth Republic, it is clear that Nigerians never consented to military rule. Military governance was imposed without popular mandate and lacks the free elections and civil liberties that define democracy. Only periods of civilian rule, chosen by the people, should be considered democratic.
A Call for Collective Decision-Making
We must put an end to the “turn” madness. 2027 must be a time for Nigerians as a whole. Those who designed our democratic and federal systems understood that collective decisions, however imperfect, are more valuable than individual outcomes. It is time to move forward with competence, not rotation.
