Madhesh Province: A Crucial Battleground in Nepal’s Upcoming Election
Madhesh Province is emerging as a central arena for political competition in the upcoming March 5 House of Representatives election. With 32 first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats, it holds significant importance in the electoral landscape. The province’s political weight is further amplified by its large voter base, which plays a key role in determining the allocation of proportional representation seats.
The race in Madhesh has intensified with the presence of two major political figures: Balendra (Balen) Shah and KP Sharma Oli. While Balen Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is making a strong push, the Nepali Congress, one of the oldest political parties in the country, is also showing increased interest in the region. Gagan Kumar Thapa, president of the Nepali Congress, is running from Siraha-4, highlighting the party’s strategic focus on Madhesh.
The Nepali Congress had initially planned to unveil its election manifesto at its headquarters in Sanepa but has now shifted the event to Janakpur, underscoring the province’s significance. This move reflects the party’s recognition of Madhesh as a traditional bastion that could determine its electoral fortunes.
Political Significance of Madhesh
Madhesh Province accounts for the second-largest share of FPTP seats in the country, following Bagmati Province’s 33. Its political importance is further reinforced by the number of voters, who influence the distribution of proportional representation seats. As the election approaches, all major political parties—national and regional—are vying for these crucial seats.
Balen Shah, after resigning as Kathmandu mayor, launched his political career through the RSP, positioning himself as a potential contender for prime minister. Despite this, he has not been widely perceived as a Madheshi figure, given his upbringing in Kathmandu. This has raised questions about the RSP’s ability to connect with the local electorate.
Journalist and Madhes politics analyst Roshan Janakpuri notes that Madhesh-based parties historically had clear political agendas during the first and second Madhesh movements. However, their inability to fulfill promises and their increasing focus on power have led to a shift in the political dynamics. National parties are now trying to reclaim lost ground in the region.
Challenges for the RSP
Chandrakishore, an analyst specializing in Madhesh affairs, points out that while there is curiosity about the RSP’s prospects, this is more of a passing excitement than deep-seated trust. He acknowledges that people in Madhesh are looking for change, but they remain skeptical about the party’s long-term viability.
Shah’s assertive campaign style has garnered some support, particularly among those who believe his confrontational approach is necessary to challenge established political structures. However, some residents find his demeanor arrogant, especially after instances where he failed to engage meaningfully with voters during his rallies.
Chandrakishore argues that the RSP’s weak organizational structure will hinder its ability to compete effectively against well-established parties like the Nepali Congress, the CPN-UML, and regional forces. He also highlights that many RSP candidates have previously contested elections under other parties, making it difficult for the RSP to position itself as a truly new political force.
Electoral Dynamics and Future Prospects
Sohan Shah, a former vice-chair of the Madhes Province Policy and Planning Commission, notes that the initial enthusiasm for the RSP during its Janakpur rally has not been sustained. However, he believes that even if the RSP does not win many direct seats, it could perform better in the proportional representation election.
Shah anticipates a four-way competition in Madhesh between the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, RSP, and Madhesh-based parties. He suggests that while the RSP may generate “noise politics,” the Nepali Congress is presenting a more mature and measured approach. Similarly, if the UML can consolidate its vote base, it may maintain a strong position.
As the election draws closer, the outcome in Madhesh remains uncertain. The region’s political significance ensures that all parties will continue to vie for its support, with the RSP facing considerable challenges in establishing itself as a dominant force.
