Nigeria’s Push for Higher OPEC Oil Production Quota
Nigeria is preparing to make a strong case for an increase in its oil production quota at the upcoming meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in November. This move comes as the country continues to demonstrate improved performance in the upstream oil sector, with production levels rising steadily.
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, revealed this during a special bulletin published by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). The bulletin marked four years since the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act and the establishment of the NUPRC. Lokpobiri emphasized that Nigeria’s current oil production quota of about 1.5 million barrels per day no longer reflects the country’s true capacity.
According to Lokpobiri, the upcoming OPEC meeting presents a significant opportunity for Nigeria to advocate for a higher quota, potentially increasing it to at least two million barrels per day. “The OPEC quota is subject to periodic review, and by November, when we attend the annual meeting, we will certainly be making a case for a higher quota for Nigeria,” he stated. “I believe there’s no better time than now for us to make a strong case for Nigeria’s quota to be reviewed to two million and above.”
Current Production Levels and Challenges
Recent reports indicate that Nigeria’s crude oil production has increased significantly, hovering around 1.7 million barrels per day. However, this still falls short of the federal government’s target of 2.2 million barrels per day set in the 2025 budget. Despite this, Lokpobiri expressed confidence that Nigeria’s improved output levels, strengthened infrastructure, and renewed investments in the upstream sector would support the country’s case for a higher quota.
He highlighted that sustained recovery in production, improved regulatory environment, and fresh inflow of investment into the oil and gas sector have positioned Nigeria to make a strong case for an upward revision of its OPEC quota. “When I became Minister, the OPEC quota for Nigeria was 1.5 million barrels per day because our production then was below that. Today, we are producing around 1.7 million barrels daily, including condensates, and we have the capacity to produce above two million barrels per day,” he said.
Lokpobiri also explained that Nigeria’s actual output includes condensates, a lighter, higher-value form of crude not covered by OPEC’s production limits. This gives the country flexibility without violating its quota. “Condensate is not counted in OPEC production, yet it sells at a higher price,” he added. “If we do 1.5 million barrels of crude and one million barrels of condensate, we are still within the rules. And because we have capacity, we are also going to show that we have capacity.”
Improved Security and Infrastructure
The minister attributed the production rebound to improved security and better pipeline integrity across the Niger Delta. “Before now, companies were scared to produce because crude pumped into pipelines hardly got to the terminal,” he said. “Today, if you put in crude, you get 100 per cent at the export point.”
He noted that years of pipeline vandalism and oil theft had crippled Nigeria’s production capacity, but recent interventions by security agencies and community partnerships had reversed the trend. According to him, Nigeria’s rig count, a key indicator of upstream activity, has jumped from about 14 to nearly 50 and is expected to rise further by year-end.
Feasibility of a 2m Barrel Per Day Quota
While Nigeria has continued to meet its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day of crude oil, there are doubts over the feasibility of a 2 million barrels per day quota amidst market volatility. Experts suggest that the current quota is within reasonable production limits and question whether the country can cope with an additional 500,000 barrels per day.
However, Dr. Garuba Dauda, an oil and gas expert, believes the move is worth pursuing. “For me, it is worth pursuing. What we should be asking ourselves is: are we able to sustain what we are asking for?” he said. “A closer review shows that there has been relative stability in the Niger Delta.”
Gas Flaring Reduction and Sustainable Development
Meanwhile, the NUPRC has stated that the reduction of gas flaring will ensure the country meets its target of utilising all petroleum products produced by 2030. During a conference on hydrocarbon science and technology, the CEO of NUPRC, Engr. Gbenga Komolafe, emphasized the importance of governing resources in ways that build trust, attract sustainable investment, uplift the people, safeguard the environment, and secure Nigeria’s rightful place in the global shift toward sustainable energy.
Komolafe highlighted that gas that once burned wastefully into the sky is now being used to power homes, drive small industries, and provide clean cooking energy for millions. “Through the NUPRC’s flare gas commercialisation initiatives, the nation is making steady progress toward the Federal Government’s goal of achieving complete flare-out by 2030,” he added.
