Nigeria’s Petrol Supply Challenges Highlight Growing Reliance on Imports
Nigeria’s petroleum sector has continued to face significant challenges, with domestic petrol supply showing a sharp decline in July 2026. This drop forced an increase in foreign imports, despite the country’s expanding refining capacity. The situation highlights the ongoing struggle of Africa’s largest oil producer to reduce its dependence on imported fuel products.
According to the latest statistics on midstream and downstream petroleum operations for July, domestic petrol supply fell by 21 per cent within a single month, while petrol imports rose by nine per cent. This development underscores the persistent difficulties in transitioning from years of reliance on imported refined petroleum products to a more self-sufficient system driven by local refineries.
The data reveals that total Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) receipts declined from 50.6 million litres per day in June to 45.5 million litres per day in July, representing a 10 per cent drop. Domestic refineries supplied 32.5 million litres daily in June but this dropped to 25.8 million litres in July. At the same time, imported petrol receipts increased from 18.1 million litres to 19.7 million litres per day.
This shift means that although locally refined petrol remains the primary source of supply, imports have taken up a larger share of the market as domestic production weakened. The trend began in June, when petrol imports surged by 207 per cent to 18.1 million litres per day as domestic supply dropped by 22 per cent to 32.5 million litres. A month later, domestic supply fell further to 25.8 million litres daily, while imports climbed to 19.7 million litres.
The decline in crude oil receipts by domestic refineries also played a role. Crude oil supplies fell from 632,000 barrels per day in June to 585,000 barrels per day in July, an eight per cent reduction. This decrease in feedstock availability directly impacted the ability of local refineries to produce petrol, reinforcing the link between refinery operations and Nigeria’s efforts to reduce import dependency.
Despite being one of Africa’s major crude oil producers, Nigeria has long relied on imported refined petroleum products due to the underperformance of state-owned refineries. However, recent developments, including the expansion of private refining capacity led by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, have started to reshape the country’s petroleum supply structure.
The Dangote refinery operated at an average capacity utilisation of over 71 per cent during the period under review. It recorded an average petrol production of about 25.9 million litres per day, closely matching the 25.8 million litres per day recorded as total domestic PMS receipts in July. These figures highlight the growing importance of domestic refining in meeting Nigeria’s fuel needs, but also expose the vulnerability of the supply system when local output declines.
With domestic supply falling, foreign products moved in to fill part of the gap. This trend was also observed in the diesel market, where Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) receipts rose sharply from 16.2 million litres per day in June to 23.6 million litres per day in July, a 46 per cent increase. Unlike June, when all diesel supply came from domestic sources, imports returned in July, accounting for 7.9 million litres daily.
This pattern suggests that while domestic refining capacity has significantly improved Nigeria’s ability to meet its fuel needs locally, imports continue to serve as a balancing source whenever local supply falls short.
Fuel Consumption and Stock Levels
Data also showed a significant drop in petrol consumption during the month. PMS consumption, based on volumes trucked out into the domestic market, fell from 47.4 million litres per day in June to 35.7 million litres per day in July, a 25 per cent decline. Despite this drop, petrol stock sufficiency increased from 19.7 days to 22.4 days, indicating that available inventories were sufficient to meet demand for a longer period.
Diesel stock sufficiency also improved, rising from 37.1 days in June to 46.5 days in July, a 25 per cent increase. However, diesel consumption fell from 16 million litres daily to 14.7 million litres daily.
In contrast, the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) market saw an increase in total receipts, rising from 5.1 kilotonnes per day to 5.3 kilotonnes per day. Domestic LPG supply increased by 22 per cent, from 3.6 kilotonnes daily to 4.4 kilotonnes, while imports declined by 40 per cent from 1.5 kilotonnes to 0.9 kilotonnes per day. LPG consumption also rose by seven per cent to 4.4 kilotonnes per day, indicating that domestic producers strengthened their position in the cooking gas market.
Domestic gas supply declined during the month, falling from 5.116 billion cubic feet per day to 4.723 billion cubic feet per day, an eight per cent reduction. The figures include volumes supplied to the Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Limited.
Aviation Turbine Kerosene receipts also declined, from 2.5 million litres per day to 1.9 million litres daily, while consumption dropped from 2.9 million litres to 1.7 million litres per day.
