Escalation in the Red Sea: Houthi Threats and Global Implications
The Houthis, a Yemen-based militant group backed by Iran, are considering renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping, which could significantly impact global energy markets. European officials have indicated that this potential escalation is contingent upon any further aggression from the US in its ongoing conflict with Iran.
Leaders of the Houthis are currently evaluating options for more aggressive actions following their recent ballistic missile strikes against Israel. However, there are internal divisions within the group’s leadership regarding the level of aggression they should pursue. This has led to a delayed entry into the conflict, according to sources who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The Houthis have stated that they will continue military operations until US-Israeli attacks on Iran and its proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, cease. Notably, they have not explicitly mentioned targeting tankers or other vessels transiting the Red Sea.
US and Saudi Arabian officials have informed European allies that the Houthis may be seeking to avoid further escalation and attacks on American and Saudi assets for now. However, as the US-Israeli war against Iran continues, the likelihood of the Houthis targeting the Red Sea increases, according to the sources. They suggest that the group might delay decisions to maintain leverage over the US.
One official mentioned that an attempted American takeover of Kharg Island, where Iran exports most of its oil, could prompt the Houthis to expand their attacks. Any campaign by the Houthis against ships in the southern Red Sea and near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would further disrupt global energy markets.
The waterway has become critical since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz following the conflict that began in late February. Oil prices have risen again, with US crude futures closing above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022. With Hormuz blocked, Saudi Arabia has increased crude exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu. For ships traveling from there to Asia, the biggest buyer of Saudi oil, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is the fastest route.
The availability of this alternative outlet has helped mitigate the rise in oil prices. The Houthis previously shut down the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to Western shipping firms from late 2023, when the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas erupted. They claimed their actions were in solidarity with the Palestinian group, and their attacks continued until a ceasefire in Gaza in October.
Now, the Houthis face complex decisions about their involvement in the Iran war. From Tehran’s perspective, the threat posed by its proxy militant group to shipping lanes is another bargaining chip to use in negotiations with the US, demonstrating its ability to disrupt the global economy.
Despite being a significant backer, Iran does not always dictate the actions of the Houthis. The group has its own strategic calculations and remains cautious about triggering retaliation from the US or Israel while recovering from previous bombing campaigns.
The US targeted the Houthis from January 2025, causing significant damage. However, this operation was costly for Washington, leading to a truce with the Houthis in May of that year under President Donald Trump.
Even as they face pressure from Iran, the Houthis must justify entering the war at a time when the economy in areas they control is in dire straits. According to the UN, around half of Yemen’s population is suffering from acute hunger.
An extreme faction within the Houthis wants to carry out more expansive attacks, while other, more moderate figures resist such a strategy. The decision to target Israel this weekend represented a compromise between these divided factions, according to officials. The Israeli government has not reported any casualties from the Houthis’ missiles fired since the weekend.
