Currency Stability and the Path to Economic Resilience in Ghana
As the Ghanaian cedi continues its upward trajectory against the US dollar, economists and industry leaders are emphasizing that this recent appreciation, while promising, is not a guarantee of long-term stability. The country’s currency must be supported by structural reforms that ensure local ownership and value creation across key economic sectors.
This concern was at the forefront of discussions during the 2025 Ghana Economic Forum (GEF) in Accra, where the theme “Currency Stability – A Reset for Sustainable Economic Growth” brought together experts from various fields. The first plenary session on Finance and Economy focused on how macroeconomic gains can translate into meaningful changes that empower citizens and local enterprises.
Key Speakers and Their Insights
The session featured prominent figures such as Abena Amoah, Managing Director of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE); Joe Jackson, CEO of Dalex Finance; Professor Patrick Opoku Asuming from the University of Ghana Business School; Dr. Ishmael Dodoo from the 24-Hour Economy Secretariat; Ebenezer Amankwah-Minkah from the Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis (CERPA); and Humphrey Ayim-Darko, President of the Association of Ghana Industries (AGI).
While the cedi’s appreciation has been driven by prudent fiscal management, monetary restraint, and record gold prices, panelists stressed that true economic resilience lies in more than short-term success. It requires a shift in how value is retained and owned within the country.
Local Value Retention and Ownership
Joe Jackson of Dalex Finance highlighted that while fiscal discipline and external conditions have contributed to the cedi’s strength, these factors alone are not sustainable without deeper economic reorientation. He pointed out that much of Ghana’s export activity yields limited domestic value.
“When you take gold and cocoa out of the equation, we retain less than ten percent of the value from our non-oil exports. We are exporting raw wealth and importing poverty,” he said. Jackson urged the government to adopt strategies similar to Coocobod’s revenue retention model in other sectors, ensuring that more foreign exchange earnings remain in the country.
From Ownership of Shares to Production Ownership
Abena Amoah of the GSE emphasized the need to redefine ownership itself. She argued that Ghana’s current model of owning shares in resource-based investments provides little tangible benefit because many state-owned enterprises are unprofitable or underperforming.
“We need to move from owning shares to owning production,” she said. Amoah proposed adopting production-linked equity models in strategic sectors like gold, cocoa, and oil, allowing the government to hold actual output rather than symbolic stakes. This approach would enable the government to build real asset reserves and support the cedi with production-based value.
She cited the example of MTN, which listed 30 percent of its shares on the GSE as part of a local content requirement. “Because of that, 30 percent of MTN’s profits – over GH¢1billion – stayed in the country through dividends paid to Ghanaian investors. That is what economic ownership looks like,” she noted.
Capital Markets and Democratisation of Wealth
Amoah also underscored the role of capital markets in retaining national value and reducing dependence on external borrowing. She pointed out that when Ghana was locked out of international capital markets, domestic investors bore the brunt of the impact.
“A stronger domestic capital market would democratise ownership by enabling ordinary Ghanaians to invest in productive enterprises at home,” she said. She cautioned against policies that disincentivize local investment, citing the reintroduction of capital gains tax on securities as a setback to investor confidence.
Industry and Production Linkages
Humphrey Ayim-Darko of the Association of Ghana Industries highlighted the importance of aligning procurement with production. He pointed out that weak local content in government procurement undermines domestic production and foreign exchange stability. For example, COCOBOD continues to import cocoa sacks despite the potential for local production.
“We cannot talk about supporting local industry while using taxpayer money to buy imported goods the country can produce,” he said. Ayim-Darko called for enforcing local preference clauses in the Public Procurement Act to stimulate domestic production and reduce import dependency.
Informal Sector and Integration Challenges
Ebenezer Amankwah-Minkah of CERPA added that the informal sector, which dominates employment and entrepreneurship, must be formally integrated into the value retention framework. He argued that smallholder farmers and informal traders need access to capital and formal markets to strengthen local ownership.
“If the smallholder farmer or informal trader cannot access capital or formal markets, then the economy remains dualistic and fragmented,” he said. He proposed working with financial institutions and cooperatives to formalise and support small producers, thereby expanding the domestic investment base.
Building Structural Resilience
Dr. Ishmael Dodoo of the 24-Hour Economy Secretariat tied these discussions to the broader structural transformation agenda. He outlined the Grow24 strategy, which aims to convert macroeconomic stability into productive transformation by building local capacity and value chains.
Over 300,000 hectares of land have been secured for strategic investment across major growth corridors, including cassava, soy, rice, maize, and sugarcane. Government has also organized 60,000 smallholder cooperatives and signed agreements with major partners to boost agro-processing and manufacturing for export.
“The key to resilience is ownership and productivity. We must move from celebrating stability to institutionalising it through real production,” he said.
Sustaining Discipline and Transforming Structure
Professor Patrick Opoku Asuming emphasized that while macroeconomic policies have restored confidence, long-term stability depends on structural transformation. He called for continued fiscal prudence, improved tax compliance, and sustained investment in productive sectors that generate export value and employment.
“If the fundamentals are weak, we know what happens to the exchange rate. We must therefore treat this moment of stability as an opportunity to build resilience, not to relax discipline,” he said.
