No 10 braced for Reform-Tory pact as populist Right surges

Before the Christmas break, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, approaching the six-month mark of his premiership, had reached a stark conclusion about his chances of being re-elected.

An altogether more hardline force located on the populist Right.

“According to the Prime Minister, it’s likely we won’t be dealing with a traditional centre-right opposition at the next election, but the exact details of this are unclear.”

The private assessment stood out for two key reasons.

And, as it happened, in Europe, it had become evident that Britain was by no means invulnerable.

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Keeping the newly elected Labour government electable in these difficult times is a pressing concern for Downing Street.

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the safeguarding minister, which he called a “rape genocide apologist”, led to Sir Keir strongly criticising Musk.

The move reflected a strategy that No 10 has developed to cope with soundings-off from Team Trump as it looks out to four years of a Maga White House.

accused of “spreading lies”.

A similar approach will be used with Mr Trump: each provocation examined, but not all resulting in a rebuff.

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At home, Sir Keir won’t have the option of dodging the challenges of the Reform Party’s surge and the Conservatives’ own reform efforts. Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch, the leaders of the parties, are keen to use social media to attack the Government.

By 2029, it’s thought that many will be alive to the prospect – possibly even the likelihood – of a Reform-Tory pact.

“They will reach some sort of agreement because, in the end, Reform is genuinely just a faction of the Conservative Party,” said a Downing Street source.

If you examine the individuals involved, consider the source of support, and where the majority of the voters originate, it is predominantly the Conservative Party.

“And I have no doubt whatever in the promise of power he will absolutely ally himself with the Conservative Party.”

There are two views on when a deal of this kind could occur. One perspective suggests that Mr Farage must start to hint at this possibility this year in order to clear the way for such an event.

is clearer.

For now, Downing Street is content to simply observe, while speculating that a deal could still come about.

The electoral risk is not difficult to pinpoint. Opinion poll averages indicate that Labour has 28 per cent, the Conservatives 24 per cent, and Reform 22 per cent – more than a double when it was last in spring.

Add those last two figures together and they vastly outweigh Labour. The arithmetic is straightforward; identical tricks can be performed with the Labour and Liberal Democrat vote shares.

But it’s the past history of deal-making on the right that makes the possibility more believable.

Arguments that Mr Farage could never “get into bed” with the Conservatives, given his popularity is rooted in criticising their past failures, can be countered with reference to 2019.

In that year, Mr Farage agreed to stand down his candidates in parliamentary constituencies held by the Conservative Party in the Brexit Party – the forerunner to Reform – in order to give Boris Johnson a clear path to re-election and deliver a UK departure from the EU.

Mr Farage’s initial request in those closed-door discussions, as a Conservative insider stated, was for a clear road for Reform in several constituencies.

That proposal was turned down, but something like it could very well be the cost for making a deal this time around.

Mrs Badenoch’s early leadership seems to be placing the Conservatives on the right-wing of the populist agenda.

Labour figures have accused her of “piggybacking” on the Reform party, pointing out how similar her comments on grooming gangs are to those made by Mr Farage.

– has taken inspiration from how she appears to be gaining knowledge from Mr Trump’s victory last year.

Mrs Badenoch is secure in her leadership role until at least 2026, it has been claimed: “Robert would not act against her before then.”

In the same vein, both the Badenoch and Farage camps have consistently dismissed any notion of deals being made.

Sir Keir’s chief of staff, who has a track record of successfully deflating the bubbles of support that have previously developed on the far right.

The red-haired Irishman gained experience in the trenches at Lambeth Council in the late 2000s, tackling an increase in support for the British National Party.

His strategy: deliver concrete results that bring about real improvements to people’s lives to counterweigh the disillusionment that drives voters towards populists.

“There’s a lot of people saying not ‘something must be done’ but ‘nothing can be done’,” said one Starmer ally on the current situation. “We must demonstrate to them that the Government is capable of making a positive change and is working in their favour, in order to rebuild that trust and faith.”

– restraining increasing welfare expenditure.

Sir Keir has toughened his language over the matter, accusing the Conservatives in November, when record net migration statistics were released, of having an “open borders policy”.

But will he actually take steps to significantly cut migrant work visas, even if that means harming economic growth?

Economists in office charge of budget point out that the projection office for budget had not been given increased immigration estimates to manipulate upwards growth figures for last year’s budget.

The proposed cuts will inevitably provoke a strong reaction from the Left. The response from Downing Street will consist of portraying Labour as “the party of work” through these measures.

When the next general election takes place, the government’s biggest challenge – whether the Right is divided between the Conservatives and Reform or united – will be to persuade voters that their situation is getting better under Labour.

Harry Quilter-Pinner, the executive director of the Institute for Public Policy Research, a left-leaning think tank, said: “The second term is always an election campaign that says ‘we’ve achieved half the job, give us the mandate to complete it now’.

“Number 10 has to be able to assert the initial bit – which means public services on the path to recovery and the economy displaying signs of improving growth – and for it to be credible with people.”

As the economy flatlines and public finances cut back, that’s becoming an even tougher task than Sir Keir had anticipated as he headed off for his Christmas break.

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