Rivers: A Political Tinderbox

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A Fragile Peace in Rivers State

The citizens of Rivers State should be commended for the progress made as the state of emergency, which was unconstitutionally imposed by President Bola Tinubu, comes to an end. However, it is essential to remain vigilant about potential challenges that could disrupt the fragile peace in the region.

During Governor Similaye Fubara’s resumption speech, the Nigerian national flag and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) flag were prominently displayed, symbolizing both the state’s identity and his political allegiance. This visual representation highlighted the complex interplay between state governance and party politics.

The Chairman of the Rivers State chapter of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Tony Okocha, denied that 27 out of the 32 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly had defected to the APC. However, there is no clear evidence to support this claim. These 27 legislators, who form a single voting bloc, previously rejected the emergence of Victor Oko-Jumbo as their speaker and continue to back Martin Amaewhule, who is set to return as Speaker after the expiration of the six-month state of emergency.

Despite being members of the PDP, these 27 legislators are seen as loyal to former Governor Nyesom Wike, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, and to President Tinubu, the National Leader of the APC. Their loyalty raises concerns, as their votes could potentially sway against Fubara. He must pay close attention to their body language and be cautious of political “frenemies” who may have offered misleading advice.

Fubara, whose PDP won his local government and that of former Governor Wike, must recognize that President Tinubu’s APC, which won the remaining 20 seats, excludes him from control over grassroots politics in the state. This dynamic could become even more precarious if key positions in his administration, such as the secretary to his government, chief of staff, and most commissioners, are filled by individuals aligned with Wike’s political camp.

Fubara appears to understand the delicate balance of power and has emphasized the importance of reconciliation and inclusiveness in his speech. His reminder that “the costliest peace is cheaper than the cheapest war” signals his commitment to fostering unity and cooperation. This sentiment aligns with the broader vision of President Tinubu, who has positioned himself as a master strategist.

As Fubara returns to the path of governance and development, he is likely reaching out to the Rivers State legislators for approval to access funds from the Consolidated Revenue Fund. He also extended an olive branch to his former boss, Wike, expressing gratitude for his role in resolving the political impasse. Wike, who played a significant role in the recent political turmoil, is seen as a key figure in the ongoing reconciliation process.

Fubara’s call for all citizens of Rivers State, regardless of their political, religious, or ethnic background, to unite in rebuilding the state reflects his conciliatory approach. He emphasized the need for collective effort to secure a future of dignity and progress for everyone in the state.

The success of this new beginning depends on the cooperation of several key stakeholders, including President Tinubu, Wike, members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, newly elected local government chairmen, and the Rivers State caucus in the National Assembly. They must publicly commit to working with Fubara to ensure the stability and growth of the state.

President Tinubu has a moral and political obligation to ensure that democracy prevails despite any political maneuvers. It would be detrimental to his reputation and political standing to impose another state of emergency on Rivers State. Similarly, Wike, who played a pivotal role in the rise of Tinubu and the APC in the state, must demonstrate his commitment to the new era of governance.

If these stakeholders fail to support Fubara’s efforts, disgruntled elements within Rivers State politics may take advantage of the situation. They could use this as an excuse to rekindle the conflict and undermine the progress made so far. Those who previously misled Fubara, often referred to as “stakeholders,” must reconsider their roles and avoid actions that could destabilize the region.

The survey conducted by the Nigerian Television Authority highlights the expectations of Rivers State citizens for security, economic development, job creation, infrastructure, public services, and political reconciliation. The current peace in the state is somewhat forced, and careful management is required to prevent any resurgence of conflict.

In conclusion, the time for action is now. All citizens and leaders must work together to achieve the peace and security necessary for economic progress. As President Tinubu emphasized, no one needs a “total paralysis of governance in Rivers State.” The stakeholders must act in the best interest of the people and avoid actions that could ignite further conflict.

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