The odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth have changed, yet again

on its toes, as the threat of its potential to collide with Earth in 2032 continues to yo-yo.

of colliding with our planet — but by Thursday that probability has dropped.

to about 1.5 per cent.

the asteroid will hit Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.

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to a local region,” the ESA said in a space safety briefing. “As a result, the object rose to the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list.”

in 2032. The current probability is 1.5%.”

“Our understanding of the asteroid’s path improves with every observation. We’ll keep you posted,” the agency said, indicating that more updates are sure to come.

The asteroid measures between 40 and 90 metres wide, based on estimates from its reflected light.

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, despite not being able to rule out the possibility of an impact.

extends “across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.”

If it did strike Earth, 2024 YR4 would cause “severe blast damage,” according to IAWN, spanning as far as 50 kilometres from the impact site.

of the asteroid’s size in order to better understand “how significant an impact could be.”

“It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4: the hazard represented by a 40 m asteroid is very different from that of a 90 m asteroid,” the report reads.

—With files from Global News’ Katie Scott