Nigeria’s Economic Turnaround: A New Dawn
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, has made a bold statement that Nigeria’s economy is on the path to recovery. In an opinion piece titled “Nigeria Turning Towards Prosperity,” he reassured citizens that the worst days are behind them. He emphasized that despite past challenges, the country has taken a decisive step forward.
Edun highlighted that when President Bola Tinubu took office in 2023, the economy was at a critical juncture. The nation faced slowing growth, rising inflation, and market distortions such as fuel subsidies and multiple exchange rates. These factors had created a climate that discouraged investment.
The President’s mandate was clear: eliminate these distortions, encourage productivity, and create an environment where private investment could thrive. Two years later, the results are evident. The GDP grew by 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025. Inflation, although still high, has decreased to 18.02 per cent after six consecutive months of decline.
The exchange rate has stabilized, with the gap between official and parallel markets narrowing to about one per cent, down from a peak of nearly 70 per cent. Foreign reserves have risen above $43 billion, the highest since 2019. These figures are not just numbers; they represent the foundation for inclusive growth that benefits all Nigerians.
President Tinubu announced the end of the petrol subsidy regime during his inaugural speech, which was seen as a necessary but painful move. The average price of a litre of petrol increased significantly, from approximately N238.11 in May 2023 to over N500 per litre in May 2025. Currently, a litre sells for between N910 and N950 depending on location.
In June 2023, the Central Bank of Nigeria unified the exchange rates, leading to a significant depreciation of the naira. By May 2025, the exchange rate had fallen to around N1,590.74/$1 in the official market and N1,620/$1 in the parallel market. However, the local currency has gained almost seven per cent, trading at N1,457.96/$1 as of October 24, 2025.
Edun emphasized that the economy is ultimately about people, not just statistics. Millions of Nigerians measure progress by the cost of food, transport, and other necessities. He acknowledged the burden of food inflation, which surged after currency depreciation and the removal of fuel subsidies. However, targeted measures have started to ease the pressure. For example, a bag of rice that cost about N120,000 last year now averages around N80,000. Prices of garri, pepper, tomatoes, and other essentials have also decreased.
The government has taken steps to ensure food prices continue to trend downward while supporting smallholder farmers. Programs are being implemented to stimulate agricultural production and safeguard farmers’ incomes. Additionally, 8.1 million households nationwide have received direct cash support from the government to meet basic needs.
Addressing concerns about rising debt, Edun noted that while progress has been made, tough realities remain. Debt service costs consume a larger-than-ideal share of revenues, a consequence of past borrowing and elevated interest rates. Nigeria’s fiscal revenue-to-GDP ratio, at about 10 per cent after rebasing, remains one of the lowest in Africa, limiting resources for essential services.
The new Nigeria Tax Act, signed into law by the President on June 26, 2025, aims to broaden the tax base, simplify compliance, and reduce tax evasion. It introduces a more progressive tax system that protects lower-income earners while adjusting tax rates for those with higher incomes. Alongside structural reforms like the Revenue Optimisation and Assurance programme, these measures will strengthen revenues and create fiscal space for investment in people and infrastructure.
A stable economy is crucial, but stability alone is insufficient. To deliver inclusive prosperity, growth must be anchored in sectors that generate jobs and opportunities. The government is providing incentives to revive investments in the oil and gas industry, with improved security leading to a decrease in oil theft and a rebound in production to 1.68 million barrels per day.
Edun reiterated the importance of infrastructure as the backbone of growth. Public funds alone cannot meet Nigeria’s vast needs, so the government is attracting private capital through public-private partnerships. Projects like the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano gas pipeline and Project Bridge’s 90,000 km fibre expansion are examples of efforts to lay the groundwork for industrialization and nationwide connectivity.
The renewed interest from local and foreign investors indicates that the reforms of the Tinubu administration are working. Investors, both domestic and foreign, multilateral institutions, and ordinary citizens are starting to believe in the nation’s prospects again. Sustaining this confidence demands a predictable policy environment, disciplined fiscal management, and steady progress in reducing inflation.
The medium-term target is seven per cent growth by 2027/28. Achieving this will require not only government action but the full participation of the private sector, entrepreneurs, and citizens. With collective effort, Nigeria can surpass its targets and build a brighter future for all.
