A Path to Peace: US-Iran Diplomacy and China’s Vision

Key Areas for Negotiations Between Washington and Tehran

According to a prominent Middle East expert, the most viable entry points for potential negotiations between Washington and Tehran are nuclear containment and regional ceasefires. Niu Xinchun, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, emphasized that the escalating conflict has reinforced the importance of diplomatic and political solutions.

He noted that while both the United States and Iran are open to talks, with Washington showing more urgency, progress will depend on substantial concessions to bridge the gap between their public positions. The expert pointed out that the most likely areas for these concessions include a ceasefire and the nuclear issue, citing the 2015 Iran nuclear deal as a precedent.

The 2015 agreement, which aimed to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, was abandoned by the United States under Donald Trump in 2018. This move led Iran to exceed its nuclear program limits a year later. Niu highlighted that before the conflict broke out, Iran was willing to discuss the nuclear issue but not its missile program or regional proxy conflicts. He stated that Iran’s policy has not changed, and they remain open to discussing the nuclear program.

However, the United States has shifted from a “no nuclear weapons” stance to a “zero-nuclear” demand, effectively ending Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear technology. This shift is something Iran finds unacceptable, according to Niu.

Tehran has rejected a 15-point peace plan sent via intermediaries, though the details have not been disclosed. Some speculate it may be based on a previous US proposal that Iran already turned down. Niu suggested there is still room for negotiation on the nuclear issue, depending on whether both sides are willing to compromise.

Current Situation and Regional Dynamics

The war in Iran is in its fourth week, with Trump halting strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. However, he is also sending more naval ships and marine forces to the region, and joint US-Israel air campaigns continue. Despite the loss of key Iranian leadership, the country’s political and military systems remain intact, and Tehran continues to retaliate against the US and Israel.

Niu reiterated that the current situation validates China’s long-standing emphasis on political and diplomatic solutions. He noted that Trump’s desperation to negotiate shows he is forced to return to what China initially advocated: an immediate ceasefire and a return to diplomatic and political settlement. Niu added that Washington’s failed policies have reached a ceiling.

The scholar emphasized that despite mediation efforts, the decisive actors in the process are the US, Israel, and Iran. Third-party mediators, such as China, Turkey, Egypt, or Pakistan, can encourage dialogue but cannot dictate the results.

China has acted as a mediator since the US-Israel war on Iran began, repeatedly highlighting the dangers of regional spillover. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that targeting nuclear facilities would lead to grave consequences and plunge the region into suffering. He made these comments during a meeting with Rafael Grossi, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Wang also called his Turkish and Egyptian counterparts, urging countries in the region to remain calm and respond rationally to the crisis. He stressed that China opposes the spread of the conflict to Gulf states and has sent an envoy to the Gulf to prevent spillover.

Gulf States’ Position and Regional Stability

Despite initial declarations of neutrality, Gulf states are increasingly losing patience with Iranian strikes on their energy infrastructure, ports, and airports. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are reportedly considering joining the war against Tehran. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan warned that patience for Iranian attacks is not unlimited.

However, Niu downplayed concerns about Gulf states joining the war, stating they have left themselves room to maneuver despite the tougher rhetoric. He cited the region’s history of maintaining neutrality and acting as mediators in various conflicts, which has been a vital pillar of their foreign policy.

A potential tipping point would be large-scale strikes by Iran on its neighbors’ energy facilities, but Niu said the situation hasn’t yet reached total enmity.

Economic Incentives and Challenges

For Tehran, a primary incentive for negotiating with Washington is the potential lifting of all economic sanctions, which could significantly benefit Iran’s economy. Niu noted that Iran’s economy has been in suspense for years, burdened by currency collapse, surging inflation, and capital outflows since the war broke out.

However, Niu said neither side believes an end to the sanctions is achievable, especially since economic measures remained partially in place even after the 2015 nuclear deal. He remarked that while Americans like to say nothing is impossible, the difficulty of reaching a deal and lifting the sanctions still seems too high for now.