Asian Stocks Face Challenges Amid Global Uncertainty
Asian stocks experienced losses on Wall Street, driven by concerns over credit quality and a significant decline in US regional banking shares. Persistent worries about trade tensions, the possibility of a tech bubble, and the ongoing US government shutdown further contributed to market volatility.
The SET index fluctuated between 1,266.38 and 1,299.43 points this week, ultimately closing at 1,274.61, marking a 1% drop from the previous week. Daily trading volume averaged 38.75 billion baht, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
Gold Prices Reach New Heights
Gold prices hit an all-time high of $4,379.01 on Friday morning, fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid rising US-China tensions. In Thailand, retail gold prices reached 67,700 baht per baht-weight (15.2 grammes) for jewelry, while gold bars were priced at 66,900 baht.
The US dollar continued its downward trend, falling for the fourth consecutive day and poised for its largest weekly decline in over two months. This was attributed to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and concerns over the stability of US regional banks.
Economic Impacts of Government Shutdown
US Treasury officials estimate that a government shutdown extending beyond two weeks could cost the economy up to $15 billion per week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the shutdown, which began on October 1, is already affecting economic strength and efficiency.
The US budget deficit decreased by 2% to $1.78 trillion for the 2025 fiscal year, ending on September 30. This reduction was partly due to record-high tariff revenue, as reported by the Treasury Department.
Trade Policies and Tariff Adjustments
The White House is considering easing tariffs on the US auto industry, a move welcomed by carmakers seeking relief from higher duties on imported parts. A program allowing automakers to reduce tariff payments on imported components will be extended for five years.
US President Donald Trump confirmed that trade tensions with China remain high, stating, “Well, you’re in one now.”
Banking Sector Struggles
Shares of some US regional banks fell sharply following news of large write-downs of bad loans. Jefferies Financial Group disclosed significant exposure to First Brands, an auto parts maker that has filed for bankruptcy.
Energy Market Outlook
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts a larger global oil supply surplus of up to 4 million barrels or 4% of global demand. This comes as OPEC+ continues to increase production to regain market share from non-members.
IMF Forecasts and Regional Focus
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, with expectations of 3.1% growth in 2026. It emphasized that Asian economies should focus on boosting domestic demand and regional integration to mitigate risks from global trade tensions.
Sanctions and Cybercrime Crackdown
The US and UK governments sanctioned Chen Zhi, a Chinese-born Cambodian national and close associate of former Prime Minister Hun Sen, as part of a major crackdown on transnational scams. Authorities seized $14 billion worth of Bitcoin, the largest crypto seizure in history, from the Prince Group.
Regional Cooperation and Economic Strategies
The South Korean government plans to use the upcoming ASEAN summit to propose a multilateral cooperation framework addressing organized crime in Cambodia. Korean officials are currently in Cambodia to secure the release of dozens of nationals targeted by scam groups.
Corporate Developments
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) reported third-quarter net profit of $14.8 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year, driven by robust demand for AI chips.
Nestlé announced plans to cut 16,000 jobs globally over the next two years, aiming to save one billion Swiss francs—double the previously planned amount.
BYD launched its largest-ever recall, covering 115,000 Tang and Yuan Pro vehicles made between 2015 and 2022 due to design defects and battery-related safety risks.
IKEA reported a second consecutive year of declining annual sales, as it focused on price cuts to attract cash-strapped consumers and gain market share. Global retail sales for the financial year ending August 31 fell 1% to 44.6 billion euros ($51.9 billion).
Energy and Economic Policies
Japan’s largest gold retailer, Tanaka Precious Metal Group, suspended sales of small gold bars for at least a month due to surging demand. Laos is considering halting electricity supply to cryptocurrency miners by early 2026 to redirect power to more economically beneficial industries.
The IMF forecasts that Thailand’s economy will grow by around 2% this year, aligning with other institutions’ predictions, including the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC). The UTCC estimates that tourism stimulus measures and the Half-Half Plus co-payment programme will boost fourth-quarter GDP by 0.5% to 0.8%, lifting 2025 GDP growth to 2.0% to 2.2%.
Investment and Regulatory Measures
The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) endorsed direct power purchase agreements (PPA) and four solar projects. The PPA programme, covering electricity sales up to 2,000MW, is expected to create 3,000 jobs to support industrial electricity demand.
The ERC also urged the Ministry of Energy to support self-generated clean electricity by businesses and ensure that power tariffs reflect true costs.
Government Budget and Tourism Initiatives
The cabinet approved a 1.6 trillion baht investment budget for state-owned enterprises, expected to lift GDP by 0.3%. Tourism stimulus measures through tax deductions of up to 1.5 times the amount spent were also approved, along with accelerated disbursement of state meeting and seminar budgets to support the hotel industry.
The Industrial Confidence Index for September rose to 87.8, the first gain in seven months, reflecting confidence in the new government’s economic stimulus plans, according to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI).
Foreign Investment and Currency Concerns
Foreign direct investment in the first eight months of 2025 reached 225 billion baht, up 125% year-on-year, with one-third of the investment directed to the Eastern Economic Corridor.
The Ministry of Finance is investigating grey money flows that may have contributed to the baht’s strengthening. A working framework is being established in coordination with various agencies, with results expected by December.
Tourism Promotion and Economic Indicators
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) appointed K-pop superstar Lalisa “Lisa” Manobal as its Amazing Thailand Ambassador to promote Thai tourism internationally.
Former Bank of Thailand governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput noted that 12-month average inflation of 0.5%, below the central bank’s target range, reflects declining energy and food prices. He warned that monetary policy alone may not address the issue.
Travel Trends and Export Outlook
Foreign tourist arrivals in the week to October 12 totaled 522,169, down 13.6% from the previous week due to the end of long holidays in China, South Korea, and India. Cumulative arrivals for the year reached 25.1 million, down 7.5% year-on-year.
The Ministry of Commerce remains confident that Thai exports will grow 3-5% this year, despite an expected second-half slowdown. Eight-month exports expanded 13.3% year-on-year, though risks include US tariffs, rapid baht appreciation, and SME credit constraints.
Upcoming Economic Events
On Monday, Germany will update its Producer Price Index, and the Conference Board will release US leading economic indicators. On Tuesday, remarks by senior European Central Bank, Bundesbank, and Fed officials will be closely watched, along with Japanese trade data.
Wednesday will bring a UK consumer price index update and US crude oil inventories. Thursday will see the US release jobless claims and existing home sales, while Japan releases inflation figures. On Friday, Russia announces an interest rate decision, and the US releases core CPI, manufacturing and services PMI, and new home sales figures.
Locally, TMBThanachart Bank will hold a briefing on financial challenges facing salary earners, and the Electronic Transactions Development Agency will host a forum on regional digital platform governance.
Stock Recommendations and Market Analysis
Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) notes that the global market has entered “risk-off mode,” with capital flowing into safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds. Recent US insider trading data shows 197 out of 200 major transactions were net sales, including those of leading firms such as Invidia, CrowdStrike, and Dell.
In terms of strategy, ASPS recommends maintaining a higher cash position to await better entry points. It highlights stocks poised to benefit from a stronger baht and solid third-quarter earnings, namely GULF, BGRIM, BH, and ERW.
KGI Securities (Thailand) maintains a positive outlook on tourism-related stocks in light of new domestic tourism stimulus measures. It recommends AAV, CENTEL, and ERW, which generate a high proportion of revenue from domestic travelers. AOT is expected to benefit indirectly from an overall increase in travel.
Technical Analysis
InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,255 points and resistance at 1,315. CGS International Securities (Thailand) sees support at 1,240 points and resistance at 1,300.
