Pakistan’s Role as an Unexpected Mediator
Pakistan’s unexpected role as a mediator in the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has caught many off guard. However, this development might not be entirely surprising given the country’s unique position and relationships.
Field Marshal Asim Munir, the head of Pakistan’s armed forces, is known to have a favorable relationship with former US President Donald Trump. Trump often referred to Munir as his “favourite” Field Marshall and expressed confidence in his understanding of Iran. This connection could play a significant role in shaping Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts.
Iran shares a border with Pakistan, stretching approximately 900 kilometers (559 miles), and the two nations describe their relationship as “brotherly” with deep cultural and religious ties. Additionally, Pakistan does not host any US air bases, which sets it apart from other potential intermediaries in the Gulf region. Unlike many of its neighbors, Pakistan has not yet been drawn into the conflict, making it a viable candidate for mediation.
Crucially, peace between the US and Iran would likely benefit Pakistan. The country has long sought to maintain stability in the region, and a peaceful resolution could help prevent further economic and political turmoil.
However, there are questions about how a nation involved in conflicts with two of its neighbors—Afghanistan and India—can position itself as a bringer of peace. Pakistan has been engaged in bombing operations in Afghanistan, and tensions with India nearly escalated to nuclear levels last year. Despite these challenges, Pakistan has attempted to balance its relations with both Iran and the US, acting as a communication channel between the two sides.
Risks and Dependencies
Pakistan’s involvement in the conflict carries significant risks. The country is heavily dependent on imported oil, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This dependency makes Pakistan particularly vulnerable to any disruptions in the region.
Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council, emphasized that Pakistan has a strong interest in de-escalation efforts. “Pakistan, I’d argue, more than almost any other country outside of the Middle East has a lot of skin in the game here,” he said.
To mitigate the impact of rising fuel prices, the Pakistani government increased the price of petrol and diesel by around 20% at the start of March. It also introduced measures such as a four-day working week for government employees to conserve fuel. If the conflict continues, the economic pressures on Pakistan could become even more severe.
Strategic Alliances and Concerns
In September of last year, Pakistan signed a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, agreeing that “any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both.” This agreement raises concerns about what Pakistan would do if Saudi Arabia joined the war and invoked the pact.
“If we are asked to join the war on the Saudi side, our entire Western border will be largely insecure,” said Farhan Siddiqi, a professor of political science at the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi. Pakistan is already in an “all-out war” with Afghanistan, accusing the Taliban of harboring terrorist groups within its borders.
When confronted about its contradictory stance on diplomacy in its own conflicts, Pakistan has stated that years of talks have failed to provide the security it needs. However, Siddiqi pointed out that opening another front would not be the only concern if Pakistan were pulled into the war. There is also the issue of domestic reputational damage.
After the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader in a joint US-Israeli airstrike, pro-Iran demonstrators took to the streets across Pakistan, with several deaths reported, including those who tried to storm the US consulate in Karachi.
Public Sentiment and Global Standing
Public sentiment in Pakistan is overwhelmingly pro-Iran, according to Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistan ambassador to the US, UK, and UN. “I’m sure the Pakistan’s decision makers have been very sensitive to that,” she said.
Pakistan’s global standing is also a factor in its diplomatic efforts. “Pakistan is very sensitive to criticism that it doesn’t have influence on the global stage,” said Kugelman. While this may not be the main motivation, it plays a role in Pakistan’s positioning.
If Pakistan succeeds in mediating a peace deal, it could elevate its status in global diplomacy. However, if it fails, the damage may not be too severe. “Pakistan would still have been seen to have made a good faith effort,” said Lodhi.
Unconventional Diplomacy
Pakistan has shown a willingness to engage in unconventional diplomatic strategies. Lodhi pointed to Pakistan’s nomination of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize during the Pakistan-India crisis in 2025 and the handover of a suspect in the Kabul airport bombing to the US. These actions helped strengthen Pakistan’s relationship with the US.
“The fact that Pakistan’s senior leaders have gone out of the way to flatter the president, that’s really helped their cause in Washington,” said Kugelman. This approach has made Pakistan a more attractive mediator in the eyes of the administration.
Regional Strategy and Future Outlook
Pakistan’s strategy involves hedging its bets in regional diplomacy. Siddiqi noted that middle powers like Pakistan are more comfortable engaging in multi-alignment policies. “The reason why Pakistan is best positioned to speak to Iran is because it does not carry the perception of being pro-Israeli or even being very pro-American,” he said.
Despite its efforts, securing a peace deal remains a long shot. Kugelman acknowledged the high level of mistrust between the US and Iran and the maximal demands from both sides. “The odds of a deal are not that high,” he said.
As diplomatic meetings continue, Pakistan’s role as a mediator remains critical. The outcome of these efforts will determine whether Pakistan can successfully navigate the complex web of regional and international interests.
