Nigeria’s Petrol Supply Situation: A Mixed Picture
Nigeria’s petrol supply situation showed a slight improvement in July, but it still remained below the national minimum stock threshold. This was due to declining crude receipts by domestic refineries and a sharp drop in petrol consumption, according to the latest midstream and downstream petroleum statistics released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The July 2026 factsheet revealed that national Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) stock sufficiency increased from 19.7 days in June to 22.4 days in July, marking a 14% improvement. However, this figure was still significantly below the 30-day minimum fuel sufficiency threshold set by the regulator.
This development occurred against a backdrop of weaker crude oil receipts by domestic refineries, lower petrol receipts, and declining domestic gas supply, highlighting ongoing challenges in Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen local refining and ensure adequate petroleum product supply.
According to the factsheet, crude oil receipts by domestic refineries dropped from 0.632 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June to 0.585 mbpd in July, representing an eight percent decline. The decline was accompanied by a 10% drop in total daily PMS receipts, from 50.6 million litres per day (mlpd) in June to 45.5 mlpd in July.
Domestic PMS receipts fell more sharply, dropping 21% from 32.5 mlpd to 25.8 mlpd, while imports increased by nine percent from 18.1 mlpd to 19.7 mlpd. These figures suggest that despite the increasing contribution of domestic refining, imported petrol remained an important component of the country’s supply chain during the month under review.
Diesel supply, however, recorded a significant increase. Average Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) receipts rose by 46% from 16.2 mlpd in June to 23.6 mlpd in July. Domestic diesel receipts declined marginally from 16.2 mlpd to 15.7 mlpd, while imports rose to 7.9 mlpd.
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) receipts also increased by four percent, from 5.1 kilotonnes per day (ktpd) to 5.3 ktpd. Domestic LPG receipts rose by 22% to 4.4 ktpd, while imports fell by 40% to 0.9 ktpd.
Aviation fuel moved in the opposite direction, with average daily receipts declining by 24% from 2.5 mlpd in June to 1.9 mlpd in July.
The most significant supply indicator remains petrol stock sufficiency. Although PMS stock cover improved to 22.4 days in July from 19.7 days in June, the figure was still 7.6 days short of the regulator’s 30-day minimum threshold.
The NMDPRA data showed that diesel stocks were considerably more comfortable, with AGO sufficiency standing at 46.5 days, up from 37.1 days in June. Aviation fuel recorded the highest stock cover at 58.6 days, while LPG had only 16.3 days of sufficiency.
The regulator noted that the stock sufficiency figures include stock held at the Domestic Refining and Petroleum Products (DPRP) facilities. The petrol stock position also fluctuated during July. Daily PMS sufficiency reached 25.68 days on July 9 but declined steadily towards the end of the month, standing at 19.37 days on July 31.
The monthly figure of 22.4 days was nevertheless an improvement over June’s 19.6 days, but remained below the 30-day benchmark.
The July data also exposed the uneven nature of Nigeria’s domestic refining recovery. Dangote Refinery recorded average capacity utilisation of 71.09% during the month. The refinery produced an average 25.9 mlpd of PMS, of which 25.8 mlpd were supplied domestically, while 3.4 mlpd were exported.
For diesel, the refinery produced 19.1 mlpd, supplied 15.7 mlpd domestically and exported 11.0 mlpd. Its aviation fuel production stood at 15.6 mlpd, with 1.9 mlpd supplied domestically and 11.6 mlpd exported. The refinery also reported closing stocks of 446.1 million litres of PMS, 162.3 million litres of AGO and 217.4 million litres of aviation turbine kerosene as of July 31.
But the performance of the wider domestic refining fleet remained mixed. The Port Harcourt Refining Company was still shut down in July, while the Warri and Kaduna refineries were listed as not producing. Among the modular refineries, Waltersmith recorded 70.42% average capacity utilisation, while Edo Refinery posted 95.72%. Aradel operated at 36.32%, while OPAC recorded only 0.86%.
Duport Refinery was also listed as shut down. The factsheet said an average of 0.592 million litres of AGO per day was supplied by the modular refinery segment during the month.
The picture is therefore one of expanding refining activity, but with the country’s major state-owned refineries yet to contribute meaningfully to domestic petroleum product output.
One of the more striking developments in the July data was the sharp decline in recorded petrol consumption. Average PMS consumption fell by 25% from 47.4 mlpd in June to 35.7 mlpd in July. AGO consumption also declined by eight% to 14.7 mlpd, while aviation fuel consumption dropped by 41% to 1.7 mlpd. LPG was the exception, with consumption increasing by seven% to 4.4 ktpd.
The July PMS consumption figure was also substantially below the 2026 daily demand benchmark of 50 mlpd. That gap is important because the NMDPRA’s consumption data is based on volumes trucked out into the domestic market, rather than a direct measurement of every litre consumed by end-users.
The regulator’s benchmark puts daily petrol demand at 50 mlpd, diesel at 14 mlpd, aviation fuel at three mlpd and LPG at 3.9 ktpd.
The supply statistics were published alongside indicative July fuel prices showing wide variations across major Nigerian cities. The NMDPRA put the average actual petrol pump price at N1,204 per litre in Lagos, N1,264 in Abuja, N1,296 in Kano, N1,262 in Calabar, N1,316.50 in Sokoto, N1,345 in Maiduguri, N1,229 in Ibadan and N1,256 in Enugu.
Maximum actual pump prices ranged from N1,277 per litre in Lagos to N1,400 in Maiduguri, while minimum prices ranged from N1,131 in Lagos to N1,290 in Maiduguri. The regulator’s indicative pricing calculation was based on an average NFEM exchange rate of N1,373.25 to the dollar.
The July factsheet also placed dated Brent crude at $83.41 per barrel and gasoline cost at $1,094.67 per metric tonne. The LPG market similarly recorded substantial price differences. Average actual LPG pump prices ranged from N1,325 per kilogramme in Lagos to N1,575 in Sokoto, while maximum actual prices reached N1,650 per kilogramme in Kano, Sokoto and Enugu.
The pressure was not limited to liquid fuels. Average total gas supply fell to 4.723 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in July from 5.116 bcf/d in June, representing an eight% decline. Of the July volume, 2.695 bcf/d was supplied to NLNG, while 2.028 bcf/d went to the domestic market. The factsheet defines domestic gas supply to include volumes supplied to NLNG.
Gas processing facilities operated at an average utilisation rate of 49.21%, with average gas processed put at 7.966 bcf/d. Soku Gas Plant recorded the highest utilisation at 99.56%, followed by Gbaran-Ubie at 92.79% and NLNG’s Trains 1-6 at 78.82%. At the other end, OB/OB AG Gas Plant recorded the lowest utilisation at 22.95%.
The gas figures underline another challenge for Nigeria’s energy sector: substantial installed processing capacity exists, but utilisation remains uneven across facilities.
For the electricity sector, average gas-to-power utilisation stood at 0.534 bcf/d in July. Gas supplied to commercial users stood at 0.552 bcf/d, while gas-based industries received 0.507 bcf/d.
The country also recorded average LNG exports by NLNG of 114,753 cubic metres per day, equivalent to 51,683 metric tonnes per day, while pipeline exports through the West African Gas Pipeline averaged 0.139 bcf/d.
Meanwhile, condensate production from gas processing plants stood at 2.117 million barrels in July, down from 2.228 million barrels in June.
The factsheet also reported varying levels of progress on major gas infrastructure projects. The Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline project recorded a 94.8% completion rate. The Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3) project was 96% complete, while the OB3 River Niger Crossing reached 100% completion.
The Odidi-Warri Expansion Project stood at 75.47% completion, while the ELPS Midline Compressor Project reached 95.77%. However, the Escravos-Odidi pipeline project remained significantly behind, with an overall completion rate of 25.72%.
Taken together, the July statistics present a mixed picture of Nigeria’s midstream and downstream petroleum sector. Refining capacity is increasingly being supported by the Dangote plant and a number of modular refineries, while fuel stocks have improved from the June position. Yet domestic crude receipts fell, petrol receipts declined and national PMS sufficiency remained below the regulator’s minimum 30-day benchmark.
For consumers, the data also points to a market where petrol prices remain above N1,200 per litre in several major cities, while LPG prices remain high despite increased domestic supply. The central challenge, therefore, is no longer simply whether Nigeria has refining capacity, but whether crude supply, refinery utilisation, logistics, stock management and domestic distribution can work together consistently enough to provide adequate products at sustainable prices.
The July factsheet shows that some of the pieces are moving in the right direction. But the 22.4-day petrol stock cover, against a 30-day minimum threshold, suggests that the country’s supply cushion remains thinner than the regulator’s preferred level.
