Nigeria’s Trade Growth with Africa in 2025
Nigeria’s trade with other African countries has shown significant growth, with total trade reaching N4.82tn in the first half of 2025, up from N4.21tn in the same period of 2024. This increase of N610bn highlights both the resilience of regional trade and the challenges posed by the weakening naira.
The quarterly trends reveal contrasting movements. In the first quarter of 2025, trade fell slightly to N1.86tn, down from N2.24tn in Q1 2024. However, the second quarter saw a sharp rebound, with trade climbing to N2.97tn compared to N1.98tn in Q2 2024. This near N1tn jump in the second quarter was the main driver behind the overall increase for the first half of the year.
Exports accounted for most of this growth. Nigeria exported goods worth N4.82tn in the first six months of 2025, compared to N4.21tn in the same period of 2024. The expansion was particularly evident in Q2 2025 when exports rose to N2.97tn, up from N1.97tn in the second quarter of 2024.
Imports also increased but at a slower pace, reaching N1.82tn in the first half of 2025 from N1.13tn a year earlier. Despite this, Nigeria remained a net exporter to Africa, recording a trade surplus of N2.99tn in H1 2025, slightly lower than the N3.08tn surplus recorded in H1 2024.
The surplus narrowed in Q1 2025 due to a surge in imports to N1.00tn, more than double the N401.8bn recorded in Q1 2024. Exports dropped slightly to N1.85tn from N2.24tn in the same quarter of 2024, reducing the surplus to N852.8bn compared with N1.83tn a year earlier. In Q2 2025, the trade balance widened again to N2.15tn as exports accelerated more strongly than imports.
Changing Trade Structure
The detailed breakdown confirmed the changing trade structure. Total exports in H1 2025 amounted to N4.82tn, up by N610bn from N4.21tn in H1 2024, while imports increased to N1.82tn from N1.13tn within the same period. Although imports are still lower than exports, the sharp rise indicates that regional suppliers are beginning to reclaim ground lost in the years of import compression triggered by foreign exchange shortages and policy restrictions.
When expressed in dollar terms, however, Nigeria’s trade performance looks far less impressive. Total trade with Africa amounted to $3.13bn in the first half of 2025, only modestly higher than the $2.89bn recorded in the first half of 2024, but still well below the $4.51bn achieved in 2019 before the pandemic disrupted flows.
Exports were valued at $1.95bn in H1 2025 compared with $1.76bn in 2024, while imports stood at $1.19bn, slightly above the $1.13bn recorded the previous year. In 2019, however, exports had reached $4.93bn and imports $2.89bn, highlighting how hard-currency trade volumes remain far below pre-pandemic benchmarks.
Currency Depreciation and Trade Values
The discrepancy between naira and dollar figures reflects the steep depreciation of the currency over the past six years. In 2019, N1.38tn in African trade equalled $4.51bn at an average exchange rate of N306.73 to the dollar. By 2025, however, N4.82tn in trade was worth only $3.13bn at an exchange rate of N1,538.50 to the dollar. This 80 per cent depreciation means that trade values in naira appear inflated, even when real volumes and hard-currency receipts are weaker.
Despite these distortions, Nigeria’s position as a net exporter within Africa remains intact. The country’s export base, particularly crude oil and related products, continues to dominate its trade with African partners.
Trade Tensions with the United States
The surge in intra-African trade comes at a time when Nigeria faces intensifying friction with the U.S. The PUNCH reported that the United States cut its imports of Nigerian goods by more than 40 per cent in just one month, heightening concerns about the fragile nature of Nigeria’s trade relationship with one of its most strategic partners.
Figures from the US Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that imports of Nigerian goods dropped from $639m in June 2025 to $379m in July, a 41 per cent decline. The collapse in imports coincided with a sharp fall in US exports to Nigeria during the same month, from $919m in June to $584m in July. Despite the dip in exports, Washington still recorded a surplus of $206m in July compared with $280m in June.
Between January and July 2025, America exported goods worth $3.92bn to Nigeria while importing $3.14bn in return, leaving the US with a year-to-date surplus of $781m. But July’s steep contraction in Nigerian exports underlines a significant weakening in Nigeria’s traditional surplus position and its broader access to the American market.
In late July, Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs on Nigerian exports from 14 per cent in April to 15 per cent, under his “reciprocal” tariff regime targeting countries that run surpluses against the US. Although crude oil, the backbone of Nigeria’s exports, has been exempted in some instances, uncertainty over tariff implementation has dampened US import demand, especially for non-oil goods that are now directly affected by higher duties.
For Washington, the move is part of a broader recalibration of trade policy designed to shield domestic industries and reduce global trade imbalances. But for Nigeria, the immediate outcome is shrinking access to a key market and erosion of its once-comfortable surplus with the US.
Shifting Focus to African Markets
Nigeria is also grappling with the impending expiration of AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), a trade scheme under which many African exports accessed U.S. markets tariff-free. The lapse of AGOA raises new uncertainty for export sectors such as textiles and agriculture that had depended on U.S. access.
However, as U.S. demand for Nigerian exports falters, Nigerian traders and policymakers appear to be pivoting more decisively toward African markets. Nigeria’s Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Jumoke Oduwole, said the country would not be stampeded into retaliatory action but would continue on its path of reform and diversification.
“Nigeria remains responsive; we’re not reacting. We’re focused on the eight-point agenda of President Bola Tinubu. We will continue to support domestic investors and expand market access for Nigerian businesses,” Oduwole said. She noted that while the United States remains an important trade partner, Nigeria is strengthening its African Continental Free Trade Area strategy and boosting non-oil exports.
