The Ongoing Conflict in Sudan and the Challenges of Peace
Sudan has been embroiled in a civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since April 2023. This conflict was sparked by a power struggle between the two parties, resulting in widespread devastation. Over 14 million people have been displaced, and more than half of Sudan’s population—approximately 50 million—faces acute levels of hunger. The humanitarian crisis continues to escalate, with no clear resolution in sight.
Several mediation initiatives have been launched since the war began, but they have yielded limited success. The African Union has also struggled to bring the main warring parties together for a permanent ceasefire. In response, a group of four countries known as the Quad—comprising the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—has taken a leading role in peace efforts. In September 2025, the Quad issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire in Sudan and outlining a roadmap to end the internal conflict.
However, despite these efforts, the capacity of the Quad to deliver a final political settlement for Sudan remains severely constrained. The prospects for peace depend on resolving three critical factors:
- Sharp differences between the Sudanese army and the Quad over who should participate in post-war politics
- A widening rift between the main protagonists in the war on the terms of ending it
- Internal divisions within the Quad—particularly between Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia—over how to balance support for the army, curb Islamist influence, and manage competing regional interests
The Quad’s plan called for an immediate ceasefire, a three-month humanitarian truce, and an inclusive political process to resolve disputes within nine months. While this statement was initially welcomed by the Rapid Support Forces and Sudan’s army leaders, follow-up meetings between the Quad and representatives of the warring parties have failed to translate these proposals into action.
Key Obstacles to Peace
Efforts to broker peace in Sudan are hindered by three key challenges:
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Diverging agendas between the Quad and the Sudanese army
Despite broad similarities between the Quad’s roadmap and a proposal the army submitted in March 2025 to the United Nations, key differences remain. The core disagreement lies in the design of the political process following the ceasefire. The Quad insists that Islamist factions should be excluded from consultations due to concerns about their ties to terrorist groups and Iran. In contrast, the army’s proposal opposes the exclusion of any party. Military leadership has alliances with elements of the former Islamic Movement, and its fighters still help stabilize the army’s frontlines. -
A widening gap between the army and Rapid Support Forces on the terms of ending the war
The army’s roadmap implicitly allows the paramilitary troops to remain in parts of Darfur for up to nine months, provided that local authorities consent. However, it also requires the withdrawal of the group from El-Fasher and North Kordofan. Meanwhile, the Rapid Support Forces have expanded militarily in North Kordofan and intensified drone attacks on Khartoum and other regions. At its core, the dispute reflects conflicting end goals: the paramilitary group seeks to enter negotiations as an equal to the army, while the army insists it should be the only unit supervising military reforms—the very issue that triggered the war in 2023. -
Internal divisions within the Quad
The Quad’s own cohesion has been undermined by internal rifts. The most visible divide lies between Egypt and the UAE. Cairo leans toward supporting the army, seeing it as the guarantor of Sudan’s state institutions against collapse, while Abu Dhabi prioritizes dismantling the influence of Islamist leaders as a precondition for peace. Saudi Arabia is wary of Emirati involvement, especially since the Sudanese army has repeatedly rejected UAE mediation, and the Rapid Support Forces have attacked Egyptian policy towards Sudan. Washington has attempted to manage these tensions by limiting direct mediation roles for Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, while keeping them within the broader negotiation framework.
How Sudan Got Here
Sudan’s fragile transition began after the ousting of long-time ruler Omar al-Bashir in 2019. An uneasy power-sharing arrangement between the army and civilian leaders collapsed in 2021 when army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, jointly seized control in a coup. Their alliance fractured two years later, sparking the 2023 civil war. Despite international pressure, neither side has gained a decisive advantage since.
The conflict has been devastating for Sudan’s population of 50 million. Death toll reports vary widely, ranging from 20,000 to 150,000 people. The country is facing the world’s worst displacement crisis, and health and education systems have collapsed. More than 12 million girls and women, and an increasing number of men, are at risk of sexual violence.
Is a Breakthrough Still Possible?
Despite existing divisions, shifting dynamics on the ground could still produce a limited breakthrough. For the military, the worst scenario would be the paramilitary group’s renewed advance into territories it had been pushed out of. That prospect might push army leaders to accept a preliminary ceasefire, allowing the army to regroup without conceding ground politically. For the Rapid Support Forces, a temporary truce could allow it to entrench its governance structures in Darfur and strengthen its military presence there.
In this sense, a short-term ceasefire remains the most practical outcome for both sides. Washington’s eagerness to secure conflict-ending deals is likely to push the Quad toward this scenario. However, a final political settlement in Sudan remains distant. For now, the most any diplomatic initiative can achieve is to pause the fighting, not to end the war, as bridging the political gaps between Sudanese powers remains difficult.
