The Growing Threat of JNIM in Mali
Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an armed group linked to al-Qaida, is increasingly challenging the Malian military regime. This group now controls large parts of the Sahel region, which spans western and north-central Africa. JNIM has been blockading major highways and setting fire to fuel tanker lorries, causing a severe shortage of fuel that threatens to cripple Mali’s economy.
Experts have labeled JNIM as one of “Africa’s deadliest jihadist groups,” with the insurgency responsible for about 64% of violent events in the Sahel since 2017. The group is expanding its territory rapidly and has launched several coordinated attacks across Mali recently.
JNIM has taken over army infrastructure, attacked fuel convoys, and targeted foreign-owned factories and mines. It has also kidnapped foreigners for ransom. Some analysts believe the group may soon launch a full siege on Bamako, the capital of Mali.
Understanding JNIM’s Success
At first glance, the reasons behind JNIM’s success seem clear. Mali’s government has struggled for years to maintain control over northern and central regions of the country. Decades of neglect, corruption, and state brutality have eroded public trust in institutions, while human rights abuses by the military have deepened these grievances.
Recent military coups in the Sahel have raised hopes for a more effective counterinsurgency strategy against JNIM. However, the group’s recent successes suggest that a militarized approach has not improved stability in the region.
Local Roots and Social Appeal
JNIM has deep local roots, drawing members from various ethnic communities such as the Tuareg, Arab, Fulani, Songhai, and Bambara. This has allowed it to intervene effectively in communal conflicts, from tackling banditry to resolving disputes over resources. In some areas of Mali, JNIM has governed for 11 years, making it an attractive option for many civilians.
Research shows that JNIM also appeals to locals in unexpected ways. One overlooked factor is the group’s emphasis on social mobility. Its leaders have criticized local elites for neglecting social welfare and employment opportunities, while maintaining rigid hierarchies.
This message of social justice resonates especially with formerly enslaved populations and marginalized pastoralists. A nomadic herder from central Mali’s Mopti region once said: “The only feeling that animates us is that we can free ourselves from the yoke of the domination of our elites.”
Gender Norms and Marriage Access
Rigid gender norms are another aspect of JNIM’s appeal. Marriage is a key social institution in Mali, but high bride prices make it inaccessible for many young men. Islamist groups have offered practical solutions to this issue.
A 2020 survey by the NGO International Alert found that 100% of women and 90% of men in the Mopti region said JNIM affiliates had improved access to marriage. One man described how “the jihadists have helped to reduce the celibacy of women.”
In focus groups conducted in central Mali, some residents reported that high bride prices are now prohibited, allowing people to marry without financial burden. These strategies have even boosted support for JNIM among women.
Women and Islamist Governance
While Islamist groups like JNIM are often seen as oppressive to women, evidence suggests a more complex reality. By addressing gender grievances, JNIM is able to undermine local elites and establish control over large areas.
In some cases, Islamist courts are seen as more favorable to women. A woman in a village described how “if a girl is forced into marriage, she may now appeal to the armed extremists to uphold her right to consent.” Others see protection from sexual violence as a trade-off worth making.
A 2019 survey identified physical protection as a primary motivation for Malian women to support Islamist groups. A female public figure in Mopti once compared the jihadists favorably to other armed groups, stating that “the jihadists are responsible for less sexual abuse compared with the others.”
The Broader Implications
The rapid expansion of JNIM across the Sahel and the growing threat to Bamako highlight the need to take the group seriously. Meanwhile, the scorched-earth campaign by Mali’s military government has only increased resentment.
JNIM has proven adept at exploiting social and political fault lines that the Malian state and international community have long ignored. Unless these root causes are addressed, the group is unlikely to be defeated.
