The Political Landscape in Kenya After Raila Odinga’s Passing
The passing of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga has created a significant shift in Kenya’s political landscape, leading to a period of uncertainty and realignment. His death has unsettled long-standing alliances and triggered a scramble for regional influence as the country prepares for the 2027 General Election.
Raila Odinga, who was the central figure in Kenyan opposition politics for two decades, led the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party, which is celebrating its 20th anniversary. His leadership had been instrumental in shaping the opposition’s strategy and coalition-building efforts. Now, with his absence, a political vacuum has emerged that could reshape the dynamics of power across various regions where he had strong support, including Western, Kisii, the Maa region, Coast, and Nairobi.
The ODM party itself is facing internal divisions, as two factions have emerged following a broad-based agreement. One group, consisting of those in government and party veterans, has pledged support for President William Ruto’s re-election. In contrast, a faction led by Senator Edwin Sifuna, known as the “rebels,” claims that Raila’s last instruction was for the party to field a presidential candidate in 2027.
This division became evident during Raila’s final send-off in Bondo, where open infighting occurred. Experts suggest that this conflict may weaken the influence of the ODM, particularly in the absence of a leader as impactful as Raila.
President Ruto is expected to recalibrate his strategy for the 2027 election, emphasizing the need to prevent any opposition resurgence. Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga expressed a similar sentiment, stating that Raila’s death would force Ruto to revisit his plans.
The current government, which relied on Raila’s tacit support to project inclusivity, now faces an uncertain future. Without Raila’s balancing influence, Ruto’s outreach to former adversaries may stall as the ODM struggles to maintain unity.
Shifts in Western Kenya
In Western Kenya, the political center of gravity appears to be shifting towards Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya and the Democratic Alliance Party-Kenya (DAP-K), part of the United Opposition led by former Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa.
With over 2.2 million voters in the region, including Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, and Trans Nzoia, Natembeya has gained regional influence through his Tawe movement. He has positioned himself as a critic of traditional ethnic leaders who have held power for years without delivering tangible results.
Natembeya recently hosted a delegation of elders from Bungoma county, where he was formally introduced as the spokesperson for the region. This move signals his growing influence in Western Kenya.
However, he faces competition from Wycliffe Oparanya, Raila’s former ally and former Kakamega governor. The upcoming by-election in Malava will likely indicate where the region is heading before the 2027 election.
Kisii Region: A New Alignment
In the Kisii region, emerging alignments are gravitating towards former Interior CS Fred Matiang’i and the Jubilee Party. The party is regrouping under the broader ‘United Opposition’ banner. Raila’s influence had previously muted local rivalries, but his absence could embolden Matiang’i to take a more active role nationally.
Kisii region has a total of 960,394 voters. Senator Richard Onyonka believes Matiang’i’s preference for the Jubilee Party stems from its national reach, suggesting he could revive the party’s fortunes.
Coast Region: Fluid Political Currents
On the Coast, political currents are equally fluid. Mining CS Hassan Joho has aligned with the ODM-UDA government, positioning himself as a bridge between Raila’s legacy and Ruto’s administration. However, Nyali MP Mohammed Ali has joined the United Opposition, rallying the region behind the outfit.
Without Raila’s unifying charisma, regional cohesion may erode as new players emerge to compete for the 1.9 million votes in the region.
Maa Region: Reconfiguring Loyalties
In the Maa region, which historically voted in tandem with ODM, the recalibration is already visible. Rigathi Gachagua, the DCP leader, has established a presence in Kajiado and Narok counties. Local leaders are weighing whether to align with the opposition or embrace Ruto’s administration for potential benefits.
Leaders such as Kajiado Governor Joseph ole Lenku and Narok’s Patrick ole Ntutu may reconfigure their loyalties based on community bargaining power.
Nairobi: Uncertain Reconfiguration
Nairobi, the political melting pot of the country, also faces an uncertain reconfiguration. The capital’s cosmopolitan electorate has always been divided almost evenly. Key ODM leaders like Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are pulling in different directions within the party, which could affect its grip on the city. Meanwhile, Wiper and DCP are scrambling for a share of the capital’s influence.
