A Deep Dive into Nigeria’s Electoral Challenges
Over the past 25 years, I have had the privilege of working in the field of Democracy and Good Governance (D&G). My career has spanned various roles, including serving as an accredited observer of elections in Nigeria since 1999. I have collaborated with both domestic and international organizations on electoral reforms and have contributed to building the capacities of numerous stakeholders involved in the electoral process. These include election management bodies like the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and State Independent Electoral Commissions, political parties, civil society organizations, legislative assemblies, media, and security agencies. As a development consultant and author of three books on governance, I have also served as a public affairs analyst.
Nigeria’s major challenge lies in its politicians, who are often self-centered and desperate. Despite multiple electoral reforms since 2001, including six electoral acts (2001, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2022, and 2026), and five alterations to the 1999 Constitution, our elections continue to be marked by palpable fear and unrest. The situation is akin to a civil war, with no signs of improvement.
Politicians from both ruling and opposition parties employ game theory, much like a game of chess, where they anticipate their opponents’ moves and block them. Nigeria’s winner-takes-all system means that even a single vote can determine the outcome, leaving losers with nothing. However, those who lose but belong to the ruling party often receive compensation. For instance, the current All Progressives Congress (APC) national chairman lost the gubernatorial election in Plateau State in 2023 but was later appointed Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and then became APC national chairman within three years. Similarly, the Minister of State for Defence lost his reelection bid in Zamfara State but is now a minister of the Federal Republic.
Desperate politicians always seek to undermine credible processes. When electoral reforms are introduced, they ensure that laws passed in the National or State Assemblies favor them. This is evident in the ongoing debate around the electronic transmission of results under the 2026 Electoral Act. If results are not posted to the INEC Result Viewing Portal, these politicians can manipulate or erase them. The case of the pre-filled election results sheet in Ogori/Magongo LGA during the November 2023 Kogi State off-cycle gubernatorial election highlights this issue.
In Nigeria, it is cheaper to eliminate an opponent than to contest against them. Several high-profile cases illustrate this. Engineer Funso Williams, a governorship aspirant in Lagos State, was murdered in 2006. Otunba Dipo Dina, a governorship aspirant in Ogun State, was killed in 2010. Dr Ayodeji Daramola, a World Bank consultant and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, was murdered in 2006. In 2023, Labour Party senatorial candidate Oyibo Chukwu was killed alongside five supporters. Obiora Agbasimalo, a Labour Party governorship candidate in Anambra State, was abducted in 2021 and has never been found.
Desperate politicians even go as far as declaring a living person dead. In late 2023, Musa Ali, a House of Representatives candidate for Nasarawa Federal Constituency, was declared dead by his own party. He accused the Action Democratic Party (ADP) leadership of forging his death certificate and submitting it to INEC to replace him as a candidate. This led to a petition to the Inspector-General of Police and the Department of State Services for fraud.
In 2015, when INEC introduced smart card readers, the commission provided incident forms to address potential issues. However, some politicians induced presiding officers to bypass the card reader and use incident forms to inflate voter figures. This practice undermines the integrity of the electoral process.
Another tactic used by the political class is fomenting violence in the strongholds of opponents to invalidate elections while protecting their own areas. This was partly responsible for the inconclusiveness of the November 2015 off-cycle gubernatorial election in Kogi State. The number of cancelled polling units exceeded the margin of victory between the leading candidate and the runner-up, leading to the need for supplementary elections.
The reduction of the time for INEC to access its election fund from 360 days to six months in the 2026 Electoral Act is another concerning move. As an election expert, this will put INEC in dire financial straits, potentially affecting its ability to meet procurement obligations. With the 2026 budget yet to be passed, and delays in capital vote releases, INEC will need about a trillion naira to conduct the January 2027 polls. The question remains: will it have the necessary resources in time?
As we prepare for another election season, I urge Nigeria’s political class to abandon the Machiavellian principle of “the end justifies the means.” Maximum cooperation should be given to INEC to ensure a fair and transparent election. No matter how many law reforms we implement, the most critical reform is attitudinal and behavioral. All actors and stakeholders must view the upcoming election as a national project and support it to succeed.
